Monday, August 29, 2011

dammit more bad news

after 6am and finally in room to sleep and they really enforce the 11am checkout time here. new bankrolls $9500 instead of $10,300. not really understanding whats wrong, everyone here claims its just variance and is to be expected, but id think at least some of the people playing should be winning at least part of the time if nothing underhanded is going on. and i dont think getting picked in a drawing is luck. if u have about 25% of the tickets in the drum, and they are picking 12 names and keep pulling til someone shows up each time, how can u not count on being picked? ive been picked several times each drawing so far. now the drawing in laughlin with a lot more people in it, that was luck. anyone can come to the lucky club with me on labor day and ill lay them $250 to $100 that i WILL GET PICKED.

anyway the guys from the BJ forum who have the 200,000 roll and have made their living their whole life at BJ and VP machines and promotions and run a forum, father and son and a friend, all sat here for hours (showing up 30 min early to make sure they got seated) and flat bet $100 all nite, and lost close to $7000 minus cashback of about $2500 so far when i left to go to bed. one them looked up my blog and was reading it and was asking how he could post in it. they are still out there looking for their long term advantage and swear the machine is NOT dishonest.

12 comments:

  1. Since that other forum deleted the thread about the promo you know it is legitimate and not fixed. But it is to late. Everybody who has read that forum and also your blog has told two friends about the promo and they in turn have told two friends and so on. With exponential mathatics (as opposed to linear) it does not take long before over a million people know about the Lucky Club. Only a small percentage will travel to Vegas to exploit the promotion but believe me, but the beginning of October the line to get a seat at the promo VBJ machine will stretch out the front door of TLC and go down the block. TLC is obviously employing a statistical analyst (master degree in stats at a minimum) to carefully monitor the play on the machine during the promo versus the non-promo days and as soon as TLC see a near-tear variance swing of 3 standard deviations they will pull the plug on that promo I guarantee you that much Tony. Keep running with it until they cancel it that is your best bet....

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  2. ...near TERM variance swing (I meant to type)

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  3. Lester, Tony will keep running with it until he is broke because a 1.5% advantage while problem gambling is like a gift from god to him despite barely ever winning.

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  4. you can't beat a machine and you wonder what is wrong?? the rake might be small but its still a rake.

    if you play poker and becuase its a shorthanded table the rake is reduced does that gaurantee you are going to win? why do you think a machine with a lower rake is a sure winner?

    if you flat bet and win 50% of the hands you will come out around 1% ahead with the promotion. if you don't win 1/2 the hands you will lose.

    do you think it will be easier to find a woman to sit and watch you play VBJ than it was for poker?

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  5. Tony that sucks!!!!! Do you think that in the long run you can get back to even or make a small profit before this promo ends? If so stay with it and play through the variance. Just look back at the losing streaks you have had in poker and then you go on a hot streak and start winning thousands. I'm certain that this will be the same just have to stick with it.

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  6. How do you manage to get 25% of the tickets? Even if you do have 25% of the ticket, there is still a chance you don't get picked. The odds are much worse than the 2.5 to 1 you are laying though.

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  7. Damn, when i saw the title of the post I figured you actually had one of your huge losses, not $800. Yes that's a lot for you but this shit is still boring to read because you post once every 1 or 2 days and you can't read any responses until you approve them.

    I'm curious what is going to happen first, your bankroll being wiped out or no one responding to your blog.

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  8. Tony for your sake i hope you do not play that -ev machine for the player +ev machine for the casino anymore. How much money do you have to lose to become a believer Tony?

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  9. Zin: it all depends if a near-term variance of three standard deviations is evident at the time or not. That is the key....

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  10. I can't keep reading this crap about VBJ day after day. I think I'm done Tony.

    If you ever decide to stop this craziness and just play poker for a living, then let me know.

    I'm out.

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  11. Two years ago on AVP you posted that you had a roll of $2400, so you are doing much better now. You DO realize that, right?

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  12. Unknown said: Two years ago on AVP you posted that you had a roll of $2400, so you are doing much better now. You DO realize that, right?

    Koala said: Don't worry, at the rate Tony is feeding his roll into the machines, he will be back down to $2400 or less in a couple of weeks. Then the survival instinct kicks in, and the thought of sleeping in the dumpsters becomes unpalatable for Tony. He will then play ultra tight on the tables, slowly building up his stack again and desperately hoping for a lucky prize cash draw from somewhere. Sound familiar Tony? You've done it all before.

    Stupid, stupid man.
    Koala

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