Tuesday, August 23, 2011

in my room at the lucky club to sleep monday nite

ok the days over now. what a roller coaster of a day. last nite, i lost over $600, and today at one point, id had all that back, and close to $400 profit (from the machine, not overall cause there was still a poker loss at the riviera, cab fees, etc.) But i was ahead on the VBJ promo. but then i ran really bad and gave back over $700, got pissed and went to a live BJ table to count the cards at instead of do the promo, and lost another $500, and finally went to get food to take to my room. while i was doing that 3 of the chaperones friends from blackjackinfo.com who was told about my thread suddenly showed up to play the machine with a very large bankroll, and all 3 sat and started flat max betting $100 a hand for the next 2 hours. so i sat back down to learn from them and reassure myself the promo was really at 101-101.5% payback long term. they said the reason they didnt come and play sooner in the day to get a lot more hours in was they didnt know about it earlier. seems like all 3 of them lost quite a bit. theres no way to verify for sure the machine isnt fixed, they werent sure of when it shuffles either, but they were smart enough to know when its paying back 2% extra u do a lot more doubling of 9vs2 etc when it gives u back another 2% on the extra $100 bet. and its a good thing i sat back down, i recovered over $600 of my earlier losses. seems overall im out around  $300 on the machine for the entire weekend, (not nearly what i lost last weekend) and out about $575 overall counting expenses and poker.

19 comments:

  1. They all 3 lost at blackjack. There's a big freaking surprise.

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  2. Tony what is your current roll at? It's hard to keep track with all the massive swings (plus lack of reports) you've been having at VBJ as of late.

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  3. I don't understand this Tony. How do you and three other VBJ players not manage to have at least one of you make the theoretical easy money at the rate previously calculated? There is almost zero chance the machine is rigged Tony so don't slide down that slippery slope....

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  4. you mean something that pays a 101% 3 players and all 3 lost! I tried to explain to you that this a lifetime adavantage, which means over your lifetime tony, not trip not session. The only adavantage is poker not table games or slots. You work your ass off playing poker and grind your roll to play well then you fuck it off in a video game. You lasted this long but it will catch up to you. If you don't believe me ask Archie Karaus he is the only guy that crushed Chip Reese to where Reese would not play him. He won Almost $60 million playing poker and craps, he broke now. It always catches you.

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  5. Lester said...
    I don't understand this Tony. How do you and three other VBJ players not manage to have at least one of you make the theoretical easy money at the rate previously calculated? There is almost zero chance the machine is rigged Tony so don't slide down that slippery slope....


    Lester, if I understand Tony's post correctly, he actually made money from the machine yesterday during the promo period. The only problem is, he lost $500 at table blackjack.

    If he had stayed with my system, he would have done just fine.

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  6. Tony:

    The machine isn't rigged. The pain that would come that casino's way for putting a fixed machine into play would far outweigh the potential gain. It ain't cheatin' ya.

    So far, everything you've learned about this game suggests it's -EV, doesn't it?

    s.i.

    p.s. - this format sucks

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  7. no seattle irish, all the guys from bj21.com thought the machine was beatable, why wouldnt it be on the day they give 2% cashback, any machine paying 98% or better is suddenly paying 100% and up if u are using a players card.

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  8. sevencard2003 said...
    no seattle irish, all the guys from bj21.com thought the machine was beatable, why wouldnt it be on the day they give 2% cashback, any machine paying 98% or better is suddenly paying 100% and up if u are using a players card.

    Tony:

    But that's beatable OVER THE LIFE OF THE MACHINE (or whatever span of time is determined by the NGA), if you play perfect. That doesn't mean you're going to break even or win while playing it. You could have a 3 month losing streak on that machine. You could lose 20 hands in a row. You may lose 10k on that machine. But...eventually...over the life of the machine...it will also pay some fool a 20k jackpot.

    Look - it's probably a better gamble then a ton of the other machines you throw your money towards. But it doesn't give you the edge you have in poker, does it?

    Keep playing it, since it seems to bring you some level of joy/satisfaction. But don't delude yourself that you're doing anything other then gambling. Every sample anyone has ever shown you shows that YOU lose money on the machines. You can delude yourself with the difference between "good' and "bad" machines, but you've never shown anything that suggests you can win at either of them.

    s.i.

    p.s. - this format SUCKS!

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  9. a machine paying 98% with a 2% cashback is not BEATABLE.
    that's what they call break even.

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  10. Tony when they built the wynn casino, they did not build it so you can beat them.

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  11. I agree with docglock wholeheartedly none of the machines at the wynn are beatable yet that dont mean i wont play them

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  12. Tony, what happened to my comment about outing Jason's full name? Did you delete it because I said I will never share my personal information with you?

    P.s. This format sucks

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  13. Machines=Suckers no matter what promo the casino is offering.

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  14. Hey Tony is there still hope that you can get software to make this a forum style blog? I will read either way, but we are missing out on some great conversations with forum style. Good luck and call Mark today just to see how his bowling game is.

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  15. Tony, I am not Jason Jones. Why do you want to email me?

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  16. badfish - I offered to install that software for Tony.

    He sent me a message on AVP asking me about it and I replied to him. He never bothered getting back to me on the subject and has never even brought it up again other than by mentioning something like "I still have to get with grrouchie or OD about...."

    I think Tony likes it this way - he still gets people showing up and commenting even if everyone bitches about how much they hate it, and he gets control over what gets posted and what doesn't.

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  17. its just that grouchie did offer to do that, but then he never did it, not sure why, am still waiting for him to do so and am still waiting to hear from him so i can text him after copying his phone number incorrectly into my new cell. i gave up on bugging him about it because he seemed to make it clear he would get around to it whenever he feels like it which could been months. its NOT on me why he hasnt yet done so.

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  18. no pokerdogg i deleted it and also my own comment listing his name because after reading ur PM on AVP i thought maybe u were right.

    and the only reason i thought thats his name to begin with was yahoo search said that id belonged to that name and he was part of worldpokertavern.

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  19. Tony, your paranoia is getting the best of you. I've only ever been to Florida twice.

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