Monday, August 15, 2011

ok im done for the day, got some food and went to my room at the lucky club

none of my blog readers came by, and one asian guy sat and played for a while flat betting $50 a hand from that one BJ forum, but he had no luck. lost about $1200. (him, not me.) he also told me i should delete my post or the machine would fill up, besides the guy from the forum who called me. (i published my phone number in it before i later deleted the post.) i ended up recovering $510 of yesterdays loss, rolls about $10.900. (also i picked up all my cashback, the $200+ id won last nite but hadnt cashed out yet, (cause i was waiting to be a certified hi roller) and about $369 more i accumulated today in cashback. now im sitting in my room watching tv ready to relax and sleep. i know i couldve continued to do the promo til midnite and most AP guys wouldve, but i didnt feel up to it anymore.

its funny reading all these comments about why i shouldnt play machines, (some of which is probably true since i dont have the right mindset to FLAT BET like everyone encouraged me to do, (even those on blackjackinfo.com where i was posting.) whats funny about it is everyone here claims that NO machines can be beat over the long run, which is a lot different than what people post on video poker and BJ forums. i never know whose right and what to believe, im still trying to find out. now i know a lot of times, that i cannot win money playing certain machines long term, such as certain harrahs and binions ones, yet i play them anyway for who knows what reason. Yet a bunch of people (such as the asian guy who came over from the forum) and the guy who called me on the phone begging me to delete my thread both say the machines beatable with the 101.5% payback on mondays. but some of those guys posting on that forum claim i shouldnt be surprised or think its odd to drop as much as 100 bets. and i dont even know for sure the machines not rigged. whats weird is none of these blog readers think its beatable at all long term, and how everyone from that BJ forum thought i shouldnt post the location of the machine because the one guy in los angeles was looking forward to playing it next monday and he worried the casino was browsing the forum, (a 3rd guy said that in a PM) and he didnt want the promotion GONE or all the seats taken next monday. theres some people who swear these machines are beatable, but they say its not from counting its from the promotion, and i shouldnt bother counting, and they claim the proper way to play is to flat bet 1 150th of my roll.

what difference should it make whether i flat bet or vary the bet a little due to the composition of the cards and the outcome of the previous hand? over the long run, it shouldnt help or hurt no matter whether i vary the bet or not, this is extremely difficult to understand and a very very boring way to play. u could lose a lot of hands in a row, i dont like doing that at all.

b

27 comments:

  1. ...whats funny about it is everyone here claims that NO machines can be beat over the long run, which is a lot different than what people post on video poker and BJ forums...

    That is not quite true Tony. I have said so here and on AVP, I agree these machines are beatable based on the 2% payback promo. What I don't agree with is your assertion that something is wrong with lossing $3000 in a few hours, when you are betting between $30 to $80/hand.

    ...what difference should it make whether i flat bet or vary the bet a little due to the composition of the cards and the outcome of the previous hand? over the long run, it shouldnt help or hurt no matter whether i vary the bet or not, this is extremely difficult to understand and a very very boring way to play. u could lose a lot of hands in a row, i dont like doing that at all...

    The problem isn't the EV, which stays the same given the same average bet sizes. The problem is, when you vary your bet sizes, your average bet is actually much higher than what you should bet for your bankroll. You said you wanted to lose no more than $3000 for BJ. The maximum bet size I would use is $20, but I suggested $10/hand as the optimal bet size. You were betting between $30 and $80/hand!!! That is way too big. Also, I believe the variance is higher when you vary your bet sizes as opposed to flat betting (assuming the same average bet size). So you were doing two things that increased your risk of lossing the $3000 BJ BR you had.

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  2. How about you just play poker against donkey tourists where you have a definite advantage? What's wrong with that? Oh, that's right, you are a degenerate gambling addict. I forgot. Carry on...

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  3. Flat betting 1/150th of your bankroll does seem about right.

    The problem is, your definition of bankroll is absurd. No successful professional gambler defines his bankroll as "all the money I have to my name".

    If you were willing to lose $3000 on this promo, you should have been flat betting $20, as Pokerdogg said.

    If that's too boring, then once again, you have no business trying to exploit a promo like this.

    And I would bet 20:1 that all Shufflemaster virtual BJ machines in Clark County shuffle after every hand. I don't care if they didn't replace the text on the instructions. These machines have all had firmware upgrades since first released, and that was a primary change.

    And they are fair. Suggesting that the are rigged and using your results as evidence demonstrates only that you don't have any grasp of the mathematics of gambling.

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  4. Tony, when you consider how much you have lost lifetime at vbj, it makes me laugh that you still call yourself an advantage player and spend so much time stressing over things you cant comprehend like beatability and +EV. Hilarious. You are so incredibly stubborn.

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  5. I think a sophomore college 201 statistical analysis class would do you some good on several levels Tony. There might be a trigonometry/algebra prerequisite though I am pretty sure you do not need calculus. Regardless, you could take this at either a community college or even UNLV since both will take CASH. So besides getting some impartial math skills to qualify your current trains of thought when it comes to odds of gamblin' events happening or not, you might also find yourself surrounded by some hotties......

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  6. so what benefits do you get as a "high roller" at the lucky club?

    too bad you cant put the same effort into poker and life in general as you do into pissing away your sock roll on VBJ.

    but then if you didnt do so many stupid things you wouldn't have any readers.

    so keep flushing that money down the toilet. some of it is sure to float back up.

    martin gale

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  7. Tony:

    Whether or not you CAN win on the machines, you do know that you DON'T win on the machines, don't you?

    People have tallied up your machine totals at least twice in the past 2 years and you've come out a signficant LOSER each time. In fact, the last total had you losing enough to cover a nice apartment for over two years, so don't play the "but comps makes it work out" card.

    So, after dumping FIVE THOUSAND DOLLARS in a day on the machines, it should be even clearer to you. Regardless of whether the machines can be beat, YOU DO NOT BEAT THEM. YOU LOSE TO THEM.

    Of course, your new blog format would make it extremely unlikely anyone will ever tally up your losses for you again. So, you got that going for you...

    s.i.

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  8. Tony dont get too stressed out over the money. Keep doing what you have been for the last few months and you will be back to $15,000.00 in just a few weeks. You are a professional gambler and gambling is what you do best.

    Clint Herron

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  9. i never know whose right and what to believe, im still trying to find out. now i know a lot of times, that i cannot win money playing certain machines long term, such as certain harrahs and binions ones, yet i play them anyway for who knows what reason.

    Tony a true pro poker player protects his money. You think that you can beat these machines you can't. Poker is boring, it sucks most of the time. But a winning palyer needs to take breaks when he gets burnt out. VBJ is not a break, A good cigar is a great break, cost about 10.00 maybe more in Vegas. 5,000 could have gotten you a nice place to live.

    But you have done things that most gamblers could never do and that is to survive.

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  10. Tony, Keep on keeping on if your having fun its your life enjoy it. People dream about trying or even doing what you have been doing. Living life as a Vegas gambler and a poker grinder.

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  11. Pokerdogg today the lucky club machine where im sitting waiting for vince to pick me up is only giving normal pponts which is still a lot better than slotsoffun. 0.4% which isnt near as good as $2 but still 40c cashback on every $100 bet. Meaning it brings the payback from 99.5 to 99.9. So its not beatable but almost even money. So if. I flat bet $5 for 400 hands wwhat should i lose usually and whats my worst likely outcome? And dont claim id lose all 400 hands

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  12. Tony, how many times do i have to tell you the virtual VBJ machines are continuous shuffle or shuffle after ever hand. Tony do you ever listen to anyone? Trying to card count on a VBJ machine is as bad as listening to Frank Scoblete about dice control while playing craps, its all a crock of shit.

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  13. The fact that you can't answer that question is proof enough that you have no business trying to exploit machine-based promotions.

    And a machine that pays back 99.9% is about as useful to a professional gambler as one that pays back 10%. Neither is worth playing typically, barring some extra incentive (rooms/comps/etc). But a room comp at the Lucky Club should be of NO VALUE to you.

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  14. zin its obvious u dont know wtf u are talking about, the casino specifically advertises the machines do not shuffle until 2 thirds of a 6 deck shoe, and could be charged with numerous felonies, heavy fines and gaming violations were that not the case.

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  15. Tony do you really have that poor of math ability?

    $5 x 400 hands = $2000

    You could lose all 400 hands. It is not mathematically impossible.

    Your expected return is 1999.50. That is what the
    Machine pays back in the lifespan of it. You could lose $2k, you could win $4k if you doubled down all 400 hands and won all of them.

    But ultimately the thing you still havent figured out over five years is that in the long run you're not supposed to win.

    I could be wrong, but properly counting cards via knowing the shuffle point and algorithms and deck Penetration and all that other stuff I know nothing about switches the odds from something like 1% for the casino to like 2% for the player.

    You can achieve much better odds than that at the poker table but like a parrot you crow about "30 buyins" and "unbeatable rake" and other catchphrases you pick up and improperly apply, while still stubbornly handing money over to the casino at vbj and always going back for more.

    Actual advantage players find scenarios in which playing machines becomes +ev due to comps and bonuses and properly take advantage of them due to a predetermined strategy and bankroll. You use promotions and comps as a justification for your addiction while improperly counting cards and martingaling your life savings away all because you are too addicted to stop.

    Advantage players have more to show for 42 years in life than two suitcases, a laptop, a free phone, and sock cash that fluctuates by up to 33% in a day.

    Think of all the 4 figure losing days you have had. Now think of how few four figure winning days and on how many of them you've turned around and given it all back plus extra immediately. I know you don't want the truth, but you're in double digits in the losses and single for the wins.

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  16. Tony, I have already shown you how to calculate the expected win/loss for X number of hands in the AVP thread. Go do it yourself. As far as the other question, I think what you want to know is likely range of wins/loss for 400 hands flat betting $5/hand. To do that, you need to find the standard deviation for blackjack (which depends on the specific rules they use at Lucky Club. You also need the formula to calculate the standard deviation for X number of trials (hands played). You probably want to figure out the range for +/- 2 standard deviations from the mean (i.e. expected win/loss). That will tell you the range for ~95% of the time.

    This may be of interest, a table to plug your results in from the $3000 blow out yesterday.

    http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix4.html

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  17. Actually, you can use the table I referenced above to figure out the range also.

    p.s. this format sucks.

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  18. pokerdogg, u said losing 100 units was quite common, but on that link u just showed me, take a look and read it, it said losing more than 95 bets out of 1000 hands would only happen 1 time in 200. the only difference in the rules on that VBJ is that u cannot resplit and that would only be about 0.10% difference, making the actual payback without the promo about 99.4% instead of the 99.5 id prev been saying.

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  19. sevencard2003 said...
    pokerdogg, u said losing 100 units was quite common


    Please show me where I said that. I believe I said it is quite common to loss $500 with $20 flat bet(25 units). I also said "I am not sure what the risk of ruin is betting ~1% of your blackjack roll...".

    Lossing 25 units in, say 500 hands is a very common occurence. The table doesn't even list that. Lossing 100 units is less likely, but if you play every day, it will happen about twice a year, not exactly a rare event.

    When you lost $3000 yesterday, you were varying your bet sizes from $30 to $80/hand. Let's just say you average $50/hand. That is 60 units. Look at the table, it is something that will occur between 1% to 2.5% of the times. Not exactly something to run to gambling commission about now, is it?

    but on that link u just showed me, take a look and read it, it said losing more than 95 bets out of 1000 hands would only happen 1 time in 200. the only difference in the rules on that VBJ is that u cannot resplit and that would only be about 0.10% difference, making the actual payback without the promo about 99.4% instead of the 99.5 id prev been saying.

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  20. Keep playing them good machines then Tony. You say the machine reads it shuffles after 2/3 of a 6 deck shoe. If that is true and one never knows the shuffling point its the same as always shuffling. I wish you good luck Tony but you are as hard headed as they come. Would you not be better off playing at the El Cortez single deck game? Also don't believe everything you read.

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  21. pokerdogg, u said me losing 60 units was something that should only happen at most 2.5% of the time but it seems to happen about every time i play. and today i lost $30 betting that $5 a hand for about 100-200 hands before vince showed up. just to test. also if losing 60 units is possible and losing 20 units is pretty common, shouldnt WINNING 60 units or 20 units be almost as common? otherwise if the possibility of winning that many units, (which seems to rarely ever happen) is NOT just as common, something really is wrong.

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  22. sevencard2003 said...
    pokerdogg, u said me losing 60 units was something that should only happen at most 2.5% of the time but it seems to happen about every time i play. and today i lost $30 betting that $5 a hand for about 100-200 hands before vince showed up. just to test...


    Clue #1: you martingale. You are making bets of over $100 sometimes.

    Clue #2: you do win big sometimes. Just look at your blog entries from the last 10 days. There are several big wins along with equally or bigger losses.

    also if losing 60 units is possible and losing 20 units is pretty common, shouldnt WINNING 60 units or 20 units be almost as common? otherwise if the possibility of winning that many units, (which seems to rarely ever happen) is NOT just as common, something really is wrong.

    Yes, it should be almost as common, but not quite, since the casino has an edge afterall. The problem is, you never flat bet, so your win/loss distribution is totally different from a bell curve. I can't believe I have to tell you this, with a martingale system, you are going to have many, many small wins, and a few really big losses. The only thing wrong is your misunderstanding of statistics, your martingale system, and how you count the machines.

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  23. Tony. The math is only correct if you flat bet which you basically never do.
    You are always talking about raising and lowering your bets Nd martingaling to sometimes multiple hundreds of dollars.
    This is why you find yourself always losing so many bets.

    And zin- what you mean dice control is bullshit? You telling me my dream cannot come true?

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  24. I lol at these discussions. There have been plenty of discussions on this crap in the last 4 or 5 years in several poker forums. Tony never listens and therefore never learns. He always thinks he's right and can never be convinced otherwise.

    I know I posted earlier that he'll probably never go broke but I take that back. I could see him losing it all by the end of the year. He is in the danger zone and wants to test all of these theories out and I think by the end of the month he is going to not only lose another $3k to $5k, but also be banned and/or arrested for one of his blow ups.

    I don't want you to fail, Tony, but I am being a realist and I think we all know what is about to happen.

    Gl and if we don't hear from you for several days, we know what happened.

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  25. Lol, sorry about your dream grrouchie, the math in gambling games is only correct when the player makes all the rite moves 100% of the time. And we all know how hard that is to do or stick to doing it.

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  26. Lice control is possible with special shampoos and finely toothed hair brushes.

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  27. Tony:

    How did you react when you dumped the 5k in one day? You haven't shared any stories about blow ups or getting angry and yelling. How did you react? It's a new twist if you simply shrugged it off and didn't throw a fit. Perhaps you've grown, but I'm guessing you simply aren't sharing that part with us (?).

    I say, keep playing the machines. Once you donk off your money to get under 5k, your survival mechanism will kick in and you'll stay off the machines until your roll rebuilds. Or, you won't. But it's clear you won't stop playing them.

    I look forward to reading about the next one!

    Give us some details about your blow up! Those are interesting.

    s.i.

    p.s. - this format sucks.

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