Thursday, September 13, 2012

Lots of variance, and lots of things needing done.

Looking for my fingernail/toenail clippers, cant find them anywhere. also need to buy 1 dishtowel, another bathtowel or more, and quite a bit of food, almost no food is left in here. and i really must do laundry today, am completely out of clothes. Dont really have the money to buy anything, which is why i never bought the phone battery Grump suggested. and is why i only sent Vook $20 to put online since im broke again except for 39c rakeback. Just got done cooking macaroni and about to eat it.

The only good news i have for today is i didnt take that big $300 loss. im still around $2400. also ive finally got the 25 hours in to be in on the riviera freeroll saturday 4pm.

i went to the wynn early on about 10am, waited for a game and got seated in a new table, and bought in $100. took a bad beat with AK diamonds, he bets $12, i bet $26 (was down to about $85 before the hand). everyone folds, he puts me allin with JQ offsuit, and hits the Q on the turn to win the pot. I rebuy $100 and lose $35 more in the next hour, and leave and go to the bad paying VBJ at the wynn. lost about $200 more and walk out of the wynn with $355. (left the house with $678)

went over to slots of fun, and recovered a bit of the loss on the much much better VBJ machine, and now i got $109 worth of those circus comps. Someday those will come in handy for food or rooms. walked in the riv with $430. i seen they were playing 4 handed $1-4 holdem spread limit to kill time waiting for players, and just to get hours, so i joined with $30. soon they picked up a 5th player who wanted to play NL so the game changed and i eventually had it up to $113 after an hour or so. but then lost it back and left with $30 again. so i went back over to slots of fun.

stayed there til i had $605 ($175 more profit), and then went back to the riv and bought in $105. game soon broke, and i changed the game when HU to plo because i didnt want to play holdem HU, and this one guy played me some local internet kid with a big stack, i eventually won $30 and the game finally broke. thats when i rode my bike to the stratosphere, and won $60 more and then came home. got home about 2am maybe before. stopped in terribles on the way and seen a full table and a long list, stopped in hardrock and saw same thing. the bike really oomes in handy when in bad neighborhoods because u speed past them all very fast. such as the area around the eureka.

and right now i really got to sleep.

27 comments:

  1. Maybe someday I'll understand the mindset that says "I can't afford $20 for a spare phone battery, but I CAN afford to lose $200 in this VBJ machine."

    But I doubt it.

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  2. Keep up the good work. I think you might be a better VBJ player than you are a poker player. You should try and put in more hours playing VBJ. My data shows that with a good martingale system, VBJ can be highly profitable.

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  3. I do like your recent TPV spike since you closed down your proboards forum. The current pageview graphic is even a bit higher than the pageviews you had from when you did the "8x $300 buyin plan" last week. Keep it up Tony, blogspot will work just fine for you.

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  4. Please god tell me you found the nail clippers?

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  5. I see you are still hitting up the machines to get unstuck. If you keep up this strategy, you'll have to let me know which corner you'll be pan-handling on - so that I can drive by and say hello when I'm in town next month.

    And good luck with that macaroni.

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  6. You keep feeding your addiction, Tony. I hope you finally realize what your slot / VBJ addiction is: an addiction. Even worse, you lose at poker then dump your money into the "bad paying" VBJ at Wynn?!?!?!? Bad bad bad!

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  7. Grump, not buying the spare battery is probably the most +EV thing Tony has done thru lack of action in the past 12 months.

    When I did the "Being Tony" experiment last week, the only time I paid attention to the game (in any real sense) was.when my phone ran out of juice and had to be recharged. The quicker Tony run out of battery, the better his ev in a poker game, unless he tilts due to his dead battery, of course.

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  8. Please move your blog back to proboards.

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  9. It's hard to make money gambling when you jump from game to game trying to get even!

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  10. Pokerdogg: You certainly have a point. But I'm just trying to tell him how to eliminate one recurrent source of aggravation in his life. He is constantly looking for outlets to charge his phone, then worrying because his phone is out of sight, then leaving either the phone or the charger behind, then going bonkers and begging for help to get back to wherever he left them, then spending money on cabs to retrieve them. It's so stupid. For $20 he could have a spare battery with its own plug-in charger. Carrying a little itty-bitty battery--much smaller than carrying the charger around--would prevent all that nonsense. And if he somehow uses the phone so much that he goes through two batteries in a day, well, then, for another $8 or so, he could buy a third battery. Carrying two spare batteries is still easier than carrying the stupid charger around.

    But I guess there's no money left for little things to make life easier and less stressful, after you've dumped hundreds of dollars a day into VBJ machines.

    "For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also." (Matthew 6:21) Tony puts his treasure into VBJ, so I guess that's where his heart is, too. So be it. We all have to choose what's most important to us.

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  11. one nice thing about playing at the wynn is they have outlets on all the tables underneath each individual seat, where everyone can charge a phone or laptop without leaving their seat. its fairly new, and is heavily promoted.

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  12. So...let's break this down. Based on what I see here you won a grand total of $17 for the day, almost enough for a phone battery! $45 you lost at poker. $62 you won at VBJ.

    Let's look at the poker results a little more closely. That poker loss consists of a $135 loss in the morning/early afternoon, followed by a $90 win in the evening. $60 of that came from the Stratosphere, I assume, later in the evening.

    One can hardly draw any conclusions from a one-day sample. Though today's result does seem consistent with the prevailing opinion of others who read your blog. VBJ will give you several small wins, but exposes you to large losses. At one point you were down nearly $200 on that machine, about 8% of your "roll" from that one play only. Also, you will tend to have better results playing in the evening, prime time for the casual poker player, than during the day. Yes, I say that knowing the AdKd vs. QJ hand happened during the day.

    So, how do we find out for ourselves whether the prevailing opinion has any merit? You take notes, collect the data, and analyze it to see what, if any, conclusions you can draw. Successful professional gamblers, whether machine pros, sports/thoroughbred handicappers, poker players, blackjack players, etc, keep voluminous records of their activities *and* evaluate them.

    Maybe the people still reading this blog will appreciate that kind of self-analysis more than where your nail clippers are, or what you are cooking for dinner. Continuing to write about the latter will likely keep around only the geek show crowd just hanging around for your next childish, petulant outburst. Writing about the former might retain the kind of readers that are more helpful/ less harmful to you. Yes, I say that knowing that it might be too little, too late, and that I am likely just joining all the others who have banged their heads against the wall when it comes to giving you any constructive feedback.

    To put it simply, you get back what you put out.

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  13. Tony, I know a guy who runs an advantage play team, FAR more powerful then counting cards at blackjack (counting cards gets you around a 1% edge overall, these guys play with around a 5% edge overall. I'm not going to disclose the strategy though, of course).

    Here's the thing though, they play $1000 - $3000 a hand, split across a team of 3 - 4 people, which means each person needs to bring a minimum of 10 - 20K, AND they sit at the same table for 3 - 4 hours, they don't "leave immediately" because they won a few thousand, and don't go on tilt from losing a few thousand.

    No team, card counting or otherwise, is going to take on a player who
    A) Doesn't have bankroll to take on his share of the win/loss
    B) Doesn't have the patience to sit in the same place all day
    C) Can't keep his mouth closed at the table. If you're doing an advantage play against the house you CANNOT TALK ABOUT IT OR YOU WILL GET 86ed!

    Almost all professional teams who have solid strategies and win play fairly high stakes, and team members have at LEAST 10K in bankroll if not a lot more (like 50K - 100K).

    Also, the whole point of a card counting team is to disguise the action, since it's suspicious if some guy is betting $15 one hand and $1000 the next. Your bankroll would only allow you to bet like $30 - $50 for your big bet, you can just do that on your own since most places won't bother you for action that small.

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  14. Dodo, don't count Tony out, he is a genius and may find shuffle tracking a piece of cake. Afterall, he is capable of counting VBJ machines.

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    1. While that may be the case, the actual skills to beat the games are a very small part of being a success. I would rank the following in terms of importance:

      1) discipline, you will fail without discipline, that's a guarantee
      2) bankroll, any serious team is going to betting serious money, which will require that you're bankrolled for it
      3) avoiding being 86ed, this is a big one, once you have the discipline and money to beat the games, it's hard to stay welcome at the major properties once they realize you're owning them
      4) skills to beat the game, these are relatively easy to pick up once you know about them

      #2 is really just an extension of #1, if you have the right discipline you will grow your bankroll, if you don't, you will piss it away on stupid things, like blowing money on cab rides and playing -EV games.

      Tony could make money counting cards on his own, if he figures out a way to do it properly, eg, none of this "must leave immediately" that costs EV or rage-tilt bullshit that gets him barred from the good games.

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    2. the reason it would be hard to do it on my own (as u suggest) is that i have no roll. what would be the proper spread with a $2500 roll and min and max bet? of course with other players at the table id just sit out negative counts if i could. the reason for joining a team and being the spotter is so id not be risking any big money and basically its my role to watch the count for the others and flat bet the minimum, and my money would come from a small $10-20 hourly wage for sitting there flat betting the min with their money, drawing no attn to myself. thats how teams work.

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  15. So is Tony going to cop to it? That the only reason he moved back here is b/c he got Google to give him some Adsense monies. Every little bit helps but this format is balls. Hairy balls.

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  16. I can't wait for BUSTO!!!!! just so the story line gets interesting. Keep dumping cash into VBJ!!!

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  17. HERE COMES BUSTO STORYLINE CLIFFHANGER!!

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  18. Tony, remember my post from Aug 28th, a few days after my $700 loss in live poker, followed by a bad run online and subsequently fallen off the VBJ wagon?

    Pokerdogg says..."Yeah, you are definitely trading lower profit for reducing the risk of losing your bankroll. Remember when I lost $700 last Friday? The next day I had a very good session, and when I surpassed $700 in profit, I briefly thought about taking the profit and call it a day. I am glad I didn't, I played for another 3 hours (7 hours total) for a $1436 profit, one of the better days I've had in a while. In fact, I think that bad day (& subsequent tilt play online that night) made me refocus the last few days. Combined with some rungood, I had a nice four days winning streak for a $2933 profit in 31.25 hours, at an obviously unsustainable $93.86/hour winrate (mostly 1/3, with 2.25 hours of 1/2)."

    Well, I am happy to report I have not returned to the online BJ, or BJ of any kind since Aug 25th. That's 19 days clean.

    Also happy to report I have continued to maintain my focus (except for the one day where I was chanelling my Inner Tony). I have worked hard, played 16 days, with only 2 lossing days. I've played 124.55 hours for a $54.07/hr win rate. How is your record keeping coming along? What do you think has to happen before you can stay focused on playing your best poker?

    p.s. This format sucks. I don't think I will be posting nearly as much if you stick to this format. Part of the fun for your readers is the interaction between them. Shocking for you I know, but blogs/forums is supposed to be entertaining for their readers/participants, otherwise there is no reason to come back.

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  19. tony, I think you have some misconceptions on how teams work. Teams rarely pay a member an hourly wage. Generally everyone takes a % of the win/loss

    As for counting cards on your own.. Assuming good rules and a $5 table minimum, for a hi-lo count with a $2500 roll:

    <= +1 - $5
    +2 - $15
    + 3 - $25
    + 4 - $35
    + 5 - $50

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    1. ur forgetting something, thats if u can risk losing the entire roll. i cannot, and would plan to quit and play poker if i lost even $300-600 of the roll or whatever. so actually the rolls less.

      and thats why i buy in for $50 alot instead of $100 if i can. yes i have about 25 buyins of $100 which should be enough. but truthfully all of that money is for living expenses the actual poker roll is about $500 or so and thats why im always such a wreck.

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    2. Take some money out of your retirement savings to add to you roll.

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  20. Well, in that case you're pretty much in a situation where you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. Because you don't have a sufficient roll to be a professional gambler, so you either have to take a shot and risk going bust, or you're going to go bust from living expenses.

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  21. Tony how about getting a job to help the BR grow some +EV. dodo is just feeding you pure bs.

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  22. It's funny how Tony continually ignores everyone's advice about life & creating EV+ situations, but has a rapid-fire discussion about trying to game the system by playing team blackjack. The level of interest he shows and the immediate thirst for knowledge about joining a team is astounding to me... I'd imagine what I'm reading is autism in action right here; Tony is completely disinterested in everything but when he finds something interesting, it's a 110% commitment. I think the same kind of behaviors are exhibited by people with ADHD.

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