Monday, November 5, 2012

things slowly getting better, arent they?

as usual, most of my poker playing since i came to Laughlin is online in my room. it sure was nice to be able to transfer $100 to vook without having to send in any documents to lock. so the $30 i originally sent him over a week ago, is already back to $85 he put in my bank account for the $100 i sent him. so if i lose the whole $40 i left myself on lock, which is entirely possible, i still made a little profit. i think lock is a fairly decent site with a little traffic, but its hard to find high enough sngs. i dont like playing ones below $10, seems like a waste of time.

the losses on the VBJ have stopped,but i still do NOT have the confidence i had when i came to laughlin that the machine is beatable. especially now that tonight on of likuntas friends, lorna's "ex bf" in a way, told me its not but ONLY because no one knows the shuffle point. he does however, claim the machine at circus is beatable because it shows u when it shuffles unlike the one next door at slots of fun. am back to $2900, which is about $1000 comeback from my lowest point. had i not lost $452 at poker in the golden nugget the day before, (and today i didnt even bother to call over there and try to see if there was a game)--id be back quite a bit over $3000.

won over $450 on the machine today.

and i know about a new machine thats beatable, not in laughlin or vegas, one id like to check out sometime. of course, ive promised NOT to discuss this machine and where its located on my blog. i must say, ive been told hotel rates are extremely cheap there, even on weekends. (when using comps). also ive never been there.

seems like yesterday i promised to talk about the hand i lost all my money on at the golden nugget. But first, the good news. the good news is after losing that pot, i didnt play any VBJ. went straight to my room (after going to dennys to buy food) and played online, and ended up falling asleep for a very long period of time. didnt play til i woke up about 11.30am this morning.

ok, this was what i remember about the hand. i hadnt had any luck hitting any flops the entire time, and i was hungry and starved and wanted to go back to my room. frustration was starting to kick in, and i was down $200+. to be even, my stack wouldve needed to grow to $452. i was on my 3rd and final buyin. i was dealt the A7 of diamonds, and called the preflop raise, the raiser seemed to be raising too often. and he was fairly new to this table. flop comes up 345 with 2 spades. preflop raiser bets $15. i call, since i have one overcard and am openended. other guy behind me calls. I put the original raiser on 2 overcards, (i was correct) and i put the caller behind me on a flush draw. (also correct). and i probably wouldnt have lost all my money if i was not able to have read their hands correctly.

on the turn, its Q hearts. i am first to act, and i shove. (fully expecting the flush draw to call and the other guy to fold, and if he misses his flush, i win). the flush draw calls, (the queen paired him) and the other guy also calls, for his AK suited is also the nut flush draw. another queen on river and i lose.

now some will say i shouldnt shove and been so impatient to win a hand, eat and leave. but dammit i did read both of their hands correctly, right? so how was my logic bad? anyway this shows u why even though i really need to go back into vegas and stick to poker, i dread what will happen with so short a roll, and the cost of housing to again stress me out and transportation the second i leave laughlin. even the cost of returning is stressing me out. For that matter, even the lack of hearing from pokerdogg and stump as of late stresses me out.



26 comments:

  1. I'm gonna say this slowly. Read my lips....

    NO MACHINES ARE BEATABLE!!!!!

    Have a nice day.

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    1. Which is different if you add a comma.

      NO, MACHINES ARE BEATABLE!!!

      Delete
  2. "i was dealt the A7 of diamonds, and called the preflop raise, the raiser seemed to be raising too often. and he was fairly new to this table. flop comes up 345 with 2 spades. preflop raiser bets $15. i call, since i have one overcard and am openended."

    If he was new to the table how do you claim he was raising too often?

    This hand needs to be folded preflop first off. Secondly, as played, you have 8 outs to the straight on the flop but if you figured one of them on a flush draw then the 2 of spades and the 6 of spades are now counterfeited outs. You also put the other guy on overcards so you have to assume an ace in their hand which means your overcard is useless so you have 6 outs to the straight and that is only if no one has a 6 in their hand. If they do such as 66 perhaps then any two that hits gives you a straight but gives them a higher straight so your outs are now down to 3.... a six that is not a spade if your right about a spade draw by one of them.

    The shove was dumb and very poor poker playing. Maybe against a single opponent you might have an argument for doing this but not against 2 opponents.

    This hand never should have been played and played to the flop it should have been folded on the flop. You had reads that you say were correct, but did you use those reads the correct way? Did you realize how many of your outs were counterfeited if your reads were correct or did you simply ignore this fact? You had the information but you refused to pay attention to it it would seem, and decided to ignore everything and just do what you wanted to not what you should be doing. This does not surprise me however. Just sayin.


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  3. Not STILL rambling on about beatable VBJ machines.

    Man Alive!

    Get a Friggin Grip on yourself!!!

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  4. Tony, are you really going to travel north, to a shit-hole of a state, in a crappy city, because you hear that a video poker machine is beatable? Really? Really?

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  5. I think it's great that you read both hands correctly. However, people don't always do what you intend them to do. Moreover, they [usually] don't make good plays. In this case, the AK guy read you exactly right (and was also crushing your equity in the hand; 6 outs to the straight + 2 7's makes 8 total outs), and the Qx guy got lucky on the turn (as he was drawing to 6 outs total). Finally, you don't tell us how much your turn shove was worth. If you're shoving $~30 into a preflop raise + $15x3 flop bet, you're not going to get most people out of the pot. If you're shoving $200 into the $45+ pot, that's a bit different.

    Two things of note here:
    o Although your retelling of the hand is much better than the norm, you still need to let us know how much the PF raise was worth, how much was in your stack, and how much was roughly in everyone else's stack.

    o You tried a move & it didn't work out. It's much tougher to bluff into 2 people than 1 person. In this case, you need both players to fold in order to get the desired result. The likelihood of that happening probably makes this shove an unprofitable shove.

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    1. im not sure what the raise was preflop, but i think the pot was around $60 or more, and i think i had about $200 when i shoved. they both had about the same or more.

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    2. Tony... shoving $200 into a $60+ pot is a recipe for disaster. It is rarely a profitable move to ever ever ever shove $200 into $60 into 2 people - I don't care what your read is. That is not smart poker. Period.

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  6. Machines aren't beatable. They haven't been beatable for five years straight now. But you wonder why people give up on you.

    Sad.

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    1. i know a few people who make their living playing machines that pay over 100%, they dont do it off my VBJ machine, but they have flat bet $100 on the old lucky club VBJ and the Binions VBJ, both of which paid out over 100% i cant do anymore. these guys have HUGE rolls, and none of their income comes from poker instead of machines, all of whom read my blog and never post. also herbie too makes his living off of playing machines, VP machines that are +EV, and sports betting instead of poker. ive also been told i COULD win money at VBJ if i would play one of the machines that shows the shuffle point instead of the one where i can only give it my best educated guess.

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  7. Your read is 2 over cards on 1 opponent, a "logical" overcard hits the turn and you shove???? Awful just awful, especially if the flush draw is likely the nut flush draw in wish case you are way behind if he calls.

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    1. i realized later it wasnt the best play, but i didnt think it would be the nut flush draw, and i thought he might put me on a monster since i played it odd by only calling the flop and shoving the turn. guess not.

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  8. I don't understand why Tony is so dedicated on beating the machines. More time should be spent beating poker(something known that can be beat with good play and study).

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    1. well, the machines are something more suited to me psychologically, and play into my strengths. (being good with numbers). i dont have to decipher how others will feel or think like i do at poker, and i can do it ALONE, and im not very much of a social person. i find it way more enjoyable than poker, and less stressful. and there isnt the terrible boredom of folding every hand. Same reason i like online poker. No other people around, and far less boring because of the faster pace, and u can play 2 tables.

      if more people understood this, more people would see why its hard for me to not play machines.

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    2. So in the future, when you inevitably swing back to wringing your hands and saying that you're an idiot for playing these goddamned machines and you need Jesus to help you stop--when you do that, we will know that you are lying, because here you freely admit that playing the machines is what you really want to do.

      Right?

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    3. Grump, please . . . you obviously have no CLUE how the devil works . . .

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  9. in my room playing a $5 sng and a $25 sng right now on lock. lost $220 downstairs, new roll $2700

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  10. i better win this $25 sng. lost both $5 sngs. will talk about it on the old forum cause i need something to post there and vook likes to comment there.

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  11. I don't comment because this site doesn't work well on my phone

    You played Te Hand that Way cause you were tired and desperate ad didn't want to go bed losing for the day. You didn't have reads. You were guessing and hoping. You were ready to double and break even or leave. I wish you could handle going to bed down for the day. You can't and it leads you to make foolish gambles at poker or VBJ

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  12. You're trying to use blackjack rules to beat a slot machine. It's not real blackjack. The payouts are pre programmed. Wow you really don't get it.

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  13. Tony tweeted that I had a nigger's cock in my mouth tonight.

    I'm sorry I ever defended him or ever cared about him in any way. Now I can't wait for him to die in a ditch.

    P.S. I didn't vote for Obama, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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  14. Tony, given that I'm far away over here in England, please keep me updated through your blog on the civil unrest in the USA - now that Obama has been re-elected. I'm worried the casinos will be damaged or something.

    Thanks!

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  15. Tony is presumably relieved that Obama won, so that there won't be the rioting in the streets that he said would come when (not if) Romney won. Yeah, so Tony's prognostication skills aren't the greatest. But at least he can sleep easy now with no rioting worries.

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  16. I saw the tweet that DuggleBogey referenced above. Absolutely disgusting, Tony. We've played poker together several times, and I found you to be a nice guy every time. I root for you. But comments like the one you tweeted, and use of the "N word" (particularly in the entirely rascist context in which you used it) is simply unacceptable.

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  17. I am surprised at how surprised some people are to find out Tony is a bigoted racist. Whatever made you think otherwise?

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