Sunday, December 9, 2012

The reason i dont think I'm a bad DON higher limit online player is not only because i used to do well on BCP and pokerstars in the old days, its because when i lose a sng, i see the person who beat me NOT PLAYING WELL. and believe when i say me raising to 90 preflop, him reraising to 240, me re-raising to 700 and him shoving allin 1500 with QQ is a BAAD play. even more so in a DON format tourny where getting first gains u nothing.

the real reason online dont work out so well is there is NOT enough games going. and the amount u win per hour is so low if u arent playing a lot of tables. except for that omaha8 game in summerlin, i really dont know what chance i have to recover unless i want to risk losing everything $100 at a shot in a good $1-2 NL game like at the nugget. And if i did that, it would be better off if i took a bus to cali and just slept outside every night outside oceans 11. (because if no one was aware of my financial situation and my blog, then maybe theyd not make moves against me, or at least i wouldnt be tempted to call THINKING they might just be making moves against me.

playing here at the casino for rooms on the VBJ isnt working so well for me either, im down to $1200 again. yeah i lost over $400 today, also lost my discipline and bet the entire stack on every hand on a plus 6 count which included 2 bets of $100 each. good thing i surrendered both hands and wasnt doubling or splitting without enough to do so.

if i was to leave today, id get back the comps for mondays room, and tues room, totalling $24, and i also have $28 more in comps for $52 altogether. would anyone come get me if i got them some gas, and id also be able to arrange to sell them up to $50 worth of gas total for a little bit of cash. it would get me back to poker with the last of my money. Being here dont seem to work, but i cant really go into vegas when i have no place to live when i get there can i? i just would like to go somewhere and play poker if anyone is willing to play poker. maybe ill use my allegiant voucher to fly out of here. but where? anywhere in MT or WA offering spread limit that wouldnt know me at all? i think those are the type of games i should be in. is there anywhere i can play in vegas no one will know me at all? grump is right.

oh--and as far as this months $93 phone bill about to be auto deducted out on the 12th at any moment, i just got done calling it, and REMOVING the auto deduction feature from my phone. that way it cant be done in the future. i managed to do it in time before the 12th to have it removed, and then i paid the bill with the $100 security deposit i gave them last Nov back in reno when i got a new phone, that i was now eligible to get back. in fact had i remembered it i couldve got it back last month, but id already paid the bill. and ive also got a $7 credit now on next months bill. so at least that bill is no longer hanging over my head about to drop me down another $100.


  1. So you were up to almost $2000 and now donked off $800? Geez Tony -- I don't even know what to say.

  2. Tony, what difference does it make where you go if you cannot control your emotions and betting.. I thought you said you had this under control and would be able to survive forever using the newly found discipline for betting on these stupid machines. GET SOME HELP TO GET YOUR EMOTIONS UNDER CONTROL.

  3. Replies
    1. well me for one. believe it or not, i thought id learned to KEEP MY BETS SMALL

    2. Sadly, you are probably the only one that believed it.

  4. VBJ BEATABLE?? Don't think so.....

    Online poker.....tough, really tough. At lower limits playes are just too willing to gamble, on the one hand you welcome players that do that, but tough to beat over and over.

    You've been through this before, and you won't take advice, but good luck anyway.

  5. went and sat back down at the VBJ, and played VBJ in a manner in which i NEVER PLAY, but probably should play. u see, my large bets often are bigger on counts of +2 lets say than counts of +5. (and the reason for that is due to all the martingaling of bets when im behind instead of ahead). of course, the bets are NEVER raised on negative counts, but still. So i sat down with the idea that me NOT ADJUSTING MY BET PROPERLY TO CORRESPOND WITH THE COUNT (INSTEAD OF WHETHER OR NOT I WON THE PREVIOUS HANDS)-- would NOT be done this time around, and that i would bet STRICTLY by the count. Me betting that way had a large effect on why i wasnt counting aces, (some counts are better for betting purposes--and the count i am using, hi-opt 1 is not so good for betting decisions since aces arent tracked, but works better than any other type of count for PLAYING DECISIONS since u know all the high cards are 10s instead of aces. such as to surrender or stand or hit.) and the reason i wanted a good for making the correct PLAYING decision as opposed to the correct decision on how much to bet, was because i wasnt using the count for my bets anyway, except to bet quite a bit more when the deck was loaded up with 10s.

    So i sat down, stuck $100 in each of 2 spots, with $265 left of the $1000 plus i had in cash just the other day. And over the next 2 hours, won $13 profit and $2 additional comp dollars. now u see how hard getting $12 a day comps is when u bet really small. Earlier today during the big loss i earned quite a bit more in comps. But its by far the ONLY casino in the world giving free rooms for $1200 coin-in. (thats why this machine and casino has meant so much to me in the last month).

    1. now u see how hard getting $12 a day comps is when u bet really small. Earlier today during the big loss i earned quite a bit more in comps.

      So do you really believe that losing $300 PLUS TO GET A FREE $12 ROOM IS A GOOD DEAL? This is how a casino can give you free rooms and a buffet every day. A $300 loss would have paid for 10 days of rooms, but the casino only gives you 1 day for that loss.


  6. So to me, betting strictly by the count means to bet 1 hand $1 on all negative counts, and on even counts 2 hands of $1, and the same on +1 counts. (or 3 spots of $1 had i been playing 3 spots). there was someone in the middle, and her husband on the other side, so i could only get 2 spots. on plus 2 counts, start betting $2 a hand. on plus 3 counts, 2 hands of $3 each. on counts of plus 5 and above, since its not usually that high, (never seen the running count above plus 16) i got to bet a little more than just $5 otherwise my spread wont be enough on them rare higher counts. so i was betting like $8 a spot on that, and $10 each spot on plus 7. that was the highest my bets and the count ever got, but still less than my new max bet of $12. (1%) no more of these massive bets because im stuck. u see the reason i lost so much was because at one time today i bet a total of about $260 in bets earlier divided among 5 spots, its why i lost so huge, and dropped to $1200..

    this way of betting is 2nd nature for most card counters, (since they dont martingale). and its the reason people can win at BJ who count cards. and its the way i should be betting ALL the time, especially with my low bankroll. its just ive been lazy, (lucky the previous 2 weeks) and couldnt stand being behind. and also i didnt want to play 16 hours or so on saturday to earn my free rooms. But if i just bet $2 min a hand instead of $1, that would cut out a bit of the time, but i hate betting more than $1 on all them negative counts and was told i shouldnt.

    this comment is getting to be way too long, and most wont see it because they probably already read the blog, never to return til the next new post, but all i am trying to say is i actually did have the willpower to bet correctly, and i still won. at one point was out about $15, but refrained from betting 2 hands of $8 at the start of the new shoe. if i had that discipline all the time, id not lose. the fact im playing a VBJ machine instead of a table has nothing to do with why ive lost so much over the years. the odds are better on the machine because of the 1% back in comps. its because i martingaled bets instead of using the count to bet. am still pretty sure ill never go broke on this last $1300 if i bet this way from now on.

    But the real test will be the first time i am stuck $25-50 and am really eager to get out of the hole.

    i got back to $1300 from the $1200s by winning the $13, and another $31 from selling vook my lock money i didnt blow in higher stakes cash games and sngs i had left. got very little on lock now, and am in a $2 sng.

    and i am SO relieved i dont have that $93 phone bill due any day.

    1. What is the point in rehashing this type of thing again and again. You need to make some real changes to your life.

  7. Whether it's VBJ, online poker or live poker, it doesn't matter much with you. YOU ARE NOT GOOD and will never be successful long term. Find something reliable to do like, I dunno, maybe get a JOB! I'd wish you good luck, but you won't read the post or acknowledge you've been lucky the last few years keeping any money with your AWFUL decisions. I plan to see you on a highway onramp with a sign saying "will play poker for food" next time I'm in Vegas.

  8. Sadly, this post contains far more truth than anything Josie or Tatude has ever said to you.

  9. You grossly overestimate the number of people who know you because of your blog (you might have 200 regular readers max), and you grossly underestimate the number of people who make moves on you because they know you're broke and scared money because YOU TELL THEM

  10. you should've taken the $2k to Vegas.
    but then you spewed 40% of your liferoll on VBJ.
    VBJ destroys you time after time after time, but yet you still play/spew/rinse/repeat

    you should now take the $1300 to Vegas.
    after shelling out $200 or so to get set up somewhere, you'll still have ~ 20 $50 buyins for 50c/$1 game at Bill's.

    if you stay where you are, doing what you do, you'll be broke by new year's day.
    other times i thought i had seen the end of your run, but you always bounce back.

    not now. not this time.

    poker is your only way out.
    (well, besides job, counseling, stay with mom, etc).

    with no poker, and 40% roll spewage, you will not make new year's day.

    1. I thought I just read somewhere that Bill's was shutting down its poker room. If so, that is one less place to play from the dwindling list.

  11. you should've taken the $2k to Vegas.

    you should now take the $1300 to Vegas.

    if you don't, you'll be broke by new year's day; probably sooner.

    you don't have discipline. you don't have bankroll management. you have tilt, and spewage. Spewing off 40% of your liferoll on VBJ is nuts. i mean almost retard-level stupid.

    i've wathced over the years, and have always seen you return from the brink of ruin.

    i don't think you will this time. not if you stay where you are.

    poker is your only chance (well, besides a job, counseling, living with mom, etc).

    you will lose everything on VBJ. everything.
    it doesn't matter if the game can be beat, because you can't stop yourself from spewing when you're stuck.
    read that again: YOU CAN'T STOP YOURSELF.

    the only way to stop, is to leave.

    go to Vegas, and at least you'll have ~20 $50 buy-ins for the $1 game at Bill's.

  12. Most successful poker players share one common trait: they stick to games that they make money when playing.

    Some come to that conclusion by being very analytical -- crunching numbers in PokerTracker and/or meticulously logging live game results -- and others use a simpler method of just playing until they find something that ends up with their wallet and bankroll being fatter at the end of each month after paying all their bills.

    Even someone who is not at good at math as you are can see an obvious trend from reading what you've posted online the last few years at various places:

    1. You lose money playing VBJ.
    2. You lose money playing online poker.
    3. You possibly win money playing live poker.

    It's that simple. You can argue all you want but #1 and #2 are 100% confirmed by your results.

    #3 is your only hope.

    We'll never know for sure if you're a winning live player as you'll never keep accurate results -- plus you've admitted yourself that in the past you've lied about your poker results and a lot of "winning" came from machine play you were hiding -- but it's your only hope if you continue to refuse to get a job or seek out any other help available to you.

    You claim to still have some free room offers in Vegas. Go to Vegas and buy-in for $50 at Hooters and Hard Rock and use your short stack ninja skills like you were doing before the VBJ bug sent you off into the desert to tilt at windmills.

    Short-stacking those games is just an exercise in math. It doesn't matter if all the players at the game know you and how desperate you are. That's the beauty of playing short-stack poker; 90% of the actual decisions are removed and it's just a set number of limited math-based decisions that a genious such as yourself should excel at.

    1. Pretty much find fault with everything dablackpimp says in the above post.

      my only free rooms are at like 1-2 casinos at most, for way less than a weeks worth of free days, not enough to live in vegas. Hardrock min buy is $100. hooters made their promo a lot worse than it used to be. also short stacking isnt good for me right now because it INCREASES variance. only full stacking spread limit actually works for my roll, or playing lower stakes NL if i could find the right game since i no longer have Bills as an option. Bills was always heavily overraked anyway.

      also, we know my live results were accurate because they were tracked on my cell phone, and included only poker.

      i havent lost money at online poker, if u REMOVE all the sngs over $5, u will see i won. i ran bad at the bigger ones and it affected the total. also i only lost at VBJ when playing machines with worse paybacks, or when martingaling.

      from the 2 day sample without the martingaling, u will see im a slight winner on the VBJ, plus comps.

    2. My fault.

      If you have a 2 day sample that says you're a slight winner at the VBJ then that's got to be right.

    3. Two days of winning just erased the five years of losing. Duh.

      Now as long as tony doesn't lose $30 on his third day of being "smart" and tilt off $1K trying to get it back, he will be going from the outhouse to the penthouse.

  13. Tony

    The casino tracks your play and they wouldn't be giving you endless free meals and food comps if it wasn't profitable for them.

    Of course everyone has told you that even playing optimally the machine isn't beatable...but you continue on your path anyway.

    Find a way to get to vegas, get a cheap room and take the last of your roll and play's the only chance you have at this point. I doubt you will manage to do that without playing machines...but that is what you need to do.

    1. I meant free rooms and food comps

    2. the casino gives out comps here--because they assume the average BJ player will make tons of mistakes, and made the stupid side bets, which means they wont get 99.69% plus 1% comps. they will get like 97% plus the 1% comps and they will make a profit. they dont have the time nor desire to go thru everyones play individually to see if they are really going by the stats.

      and no the only people saying its not beatable are those who have jobs and dont depend on gambling. the ones who actually play BJ for a living say it is beatable, but that my betting system and counting system sucked, and i didnt play it right.

    3. Tony, did you even think that these people who are "making a living playing BJ" are lying when they claim they are +ev and making money? Perhaps they are just degenerates . . .

  14. in my room playing $2 don sngs on lock, have $17 in there, and earlier i won $76 on the VBJ and went to eat in the buffet. also now my room is paid up 3 more days til saturday of this week. almost all the comps were earned yesterday, not today, earned about $5 comps today is all. it will be tough earning saturdays comps. i never bet more than 3 hands of $8 each on a count of plus 8. used the ATM and removed most of the money off the walmart debit card so i could have over $600 cash instead of less than $300 cash. roll is still in the $1300s

  15. Tony take your last $1300 and go home to Kansas and spend some time with your son and mother. Your lack of patience and discipline is going to break you.

  16. Time to change the name of your blog.