Friday, December 7, 2012

What to do (and more importantly, when)

things are going ok, roll is up to $1900 now (not counting the fact i keep losing higher stakes sngs on lock) which is the highest its been in a long time. room's paid up over the weekend til monday. As commented on yesterday and im not if anyone seen it because no one said anything, allegiant is offering nonstop flights to reno starting in Feb. I'm now in a room which I actually like because there is NO connecting door, so i feel much safer, and also feel good that i finally have enough money to be using a safe deposit box again. Also its nice to have food in the room, unlike my earlier stay here.

But i really dont think this will work out forever. Why? well for one reason its taking far more hours than i expected to earn my room comps, running either $1200, $1500 or $3000 thru the machine when it deals incredibly slow and most of ur bets cannot exceed $1 due to a negative count takes an AWFULLY LONG TIME. now yes, im up around $400 total on these VBJ machines since i started following good bankroll management guidelines. But im running WAY WAY above expectation. my theoretical win should be about $50 or so since i started following these rules, (if im estimating correctly) not $400. it WILL change. but for me, i am just glad im at a much better machine, with a much better comp rate, and no longer have a theoretical loss.

Truth? well i dont know whats going on on LOCK poker. as can be proven by my stats on BCP, i used to do good in DON sngs. even higher limit sngs. i used to tell vook the $20 ones on merge were easier than the $10 ones. I'm actually getting SICK of playing online, (instead of LIVE) but i do want a chance to make money and play poker, and would be bored in the room otherwise, with the exception of candy crush saga on facebook. I do think the better merge players were on lock, and moved over when lock left merge. Also im wondering if a lot of those players are in collusion on lock, i see players calling allins with hands like A6 when its certainly not a good idea a lot of the times in a DON sng where the strategy differs. seems like they only want to bust the ones who arent in the "group".. and its not my chat, because there is NO chat on sngs. i see some pretty weird and horrible play at the $10 and $25 levels and thats why i cant understand whats going on.

truth is, i probably am running bad, and dont have near the sample size needed to know for sure. But not knowing whats up makes me uncomfortable, and makes me feel like maybe i shouldnt play unless im playing LIVE.

So if im tired of playing such long hours and nothing but VBJ, and sick of online low stakes poker, (i feel im playing too low--and thats why i keep wanting to play $25s) what i need to figure out is this, WHEN SHOULD I COME BACK TO VEGAS?

I'm afraid to come back with too little money. afraid my housing and transportation expenses will eat me alive, and ill wind up on the streets broke. The question everyone asks on AVP and 2+2 that no one can ever answer, is how much is needed to get settled in vegas and grind out poker to start off? No one can answer that, it really varies. $1900 is 100x better than $1100. But still, thats NOTHING when u take all those living expenses into account.

I could pay $149 for a week somewhere--and start playing poker at either the suncoast or somewhere else, but am i still good enough to beat the game like i used to be for the last 20 years? or has the rake gotten too high, the players too good, or have my skills deteriorated? i dont really think this is the case though, remember how snevman and others encouraged me to start tracking my poker winnings with my cell phone?

sessions:105
Profit:$2953
hourly profit $11.55 hr
winning sessions:62

this was around 5 weeks worth of tracking, still a small sample size i know. But these results are ONLY poker, and does show i can clear about $2500 or so a month if i wasnt just running way above average that month. and no that wasnt the riviera tourny, those were all cash games. none of which had exceptionally large wins because i always quit long before that.

it is interesting to know u can lose 43 out of 105 sessions, and still be an overall winner of about $3000. also a bunch of fixed limit sessions at terribles and elsewhere got factored into them results, probably bringing DOWN the average. I dont really think any spread limit sessions got included seeing that game goes in so few casinos and i was always playing where it was convenient to get to, to avoid transportation issues. this is a fault with me, going to where it was most convenient to play, instead of to where i might have done the best. Just because i hated taking buses or paying for cabs.

anyway what im saying is WHEN do i leave the area and go back to ONLY playing poker? should i go ahead and do it NOW (monday that is after the weekends up) and get started with a measly $1900 where i can easily go broke, or just sit here bored to death for a month and hope i dont lose my discipline one of these days if i get stuck too much, maybe play more online, and wait til i have $2500-3000 before i go back into vegas? i just dont know and i get so many conflicting and different answers, even the best of the advisors dont agree. i dont want to risk going back too soon, but am i also taking just as big a risk NOT going back? certainly dont want to risk my life ending up staying in the wrong housing in vegas, like too unsafe of a motel.

I must say, im quite proud and pleased with the cellphone tracking results, im glad others talked me into keeping track. and also now that lightning went home, and Mr Cutts never showed up, i am not sure which reader i know is next coming into vegas. The guy who runs the broken chip, never answered me on twitter or made any effort to meet when he came to vegas.

22 comments:

  1. Tony, the fact of the matter is that success in anything takes some hard work and sacrifice. If you are not confident in your ability to survive in Vegas on your current roll, and truly believe you can double it if you spend another month doing what you're doing, then you have your answer. Yes, you may be bored out of your mind for a month. But, that, sir, is sometimes life. Tolerate the situation for a month; put your time in; and build a situation where you can succeed. NI the long run, a month or two of sacrifice is NOTHING!

    Good luck

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  2. I'm pretty sure even panhandling and sleeping in bathrooms in Vegas is more profitable than playing VBJ in the middle of the desert where you're running +EV at ~$1/hr in profits plus a free room

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  3. I'd say you need 1000 buyins in your bankroll and at least 1 years worth of expenses(housing, food, phone, etc) in savings before making a go of it as a "pro" in Vegas. Since you're already a "pro" with no willingness to get a job and save/plan to actually try to be successful and you won't listen to good advice anyways, go there now. At least you have a chance to win in the long run with poker. With the machines it'll only take a matter of time before you're broke, homeless and in the middle of nowhere. Good luck.

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    1. good luck in whatever you choose to do. As a reader and poker fan it is more interesting when you are playing poker. So i vote for going back to vegas and playing poker. take care.

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    2. as a reader and poker player, it is more interesting when you are playing poker and re-capping those sessions. So my vote is for going back to vegas and playing poker. Good luck whatever you choose.

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  4. I suggest that you take into consideration the hit your roll will take if you stay at your current location over the coming holiday period where you said triple comps were needed to cover the room and I think you also mentioned they might be fully booked around new year's weekend? Can you afford to stay at this VBJ haven with the holiday's coming? If the answer is no, then you need to head back to Vegas. If the answer is yes, then stay put.

    Regards, Lester

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    1. Where in Vegas is he supposed to stay on the cheap?

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    2. I would assume the last secret location he was able to ride his bike to the Hard Rock Casino. He already knows exactly how much that place costs and the mgt knows him and he had previously had a room that met his safety criteria. Not sure how last night's $377 loss affects this option at this point now...

      Regards, Lester

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    3. that was Harbor Island, next door to hardrock, i wont stay there again, besides i moved out without telling them at first, 2 days later i came back to turn in the key and theyd already thrown everything out. its a shithole for $189 a week unless u are in the back for $149 a week not as safe. costs way too much, and had my bike never got stolen, id probably never left it for laughlin 2-3 months ago to begin with.

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  5. my sleep hours are all messed up, its best i sleep like noon to 8pm, (when its hardest to get 3 empty spots in a row on the VBJ) and be awake middle of the night when no ones on it. but i tried by taking a nap from like 11am to 2pm from when i woke up 3.40am and now is when i finally need the LONG sleep at the worst possible time, when its the middle of the night and when i should always be doing the playing. played a little bit, and quit when only up $2. (shoe started off with negative 4 count on the first hand of a new shuffle, and i didnt want to flat bet a ton of hands $1 waiting for the next shoe, so i just quit with the tiny win). really wanted to win at least $17 before i quit). it had been like 4 shoes in a row that id never got a chance to raise the bet. and id also just ate a big meal in the buffet, pissed the icecream machine was down. asked why and they said the law claims it must be cleaned periodically. the law does NOT say, however, that it must be cleaned the hours of the evening meal, and then be open for breakfast. makes no sense to have it shut down during meals and open during breakfast as it always is. that law is no excuse, they can clean it any hours they want, the law dont say what hours it must be cleaned. maybe a damned union is telling them what hours it can be cleaned, who knows? i just think its stupid i have to eat icecream at breakfast instead of with my meal.

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    1. Tony,

      I am glad to see that you have rebuilt your roll. I didn't think you would be able to do this so quickly. Good job.

      I hope you have gained a greater appreciation for tracking your poker play. The realization that you can have twice as many losing sessions than you have winning sessions and still be ahead almost $3,000 should shed some light on the destructive behavior you have exhibited in the past by pressing to get even at the end of every day.

      One last not, after a bit of research I discovered this: Nevada Statute FS 3.246.2 states "Soft serve ice cream machines must be thoroughly cleaned and sterlized, in accordance with Nevada Food Standard Directive 45-235(a), every thirty days. If the soft serve ice cream device is accessed and used by the general public, it must be cleaned during the hours of the evening meal and in the case of a buffet, it must be cleaned and made operational before the breakfast meal commences."

      What a bummer!

      Good luck,

      snevman

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    2. i said i won 62 of 105 sessions, meaning i lost 43, so how do u figure i lost more sessions than i won? anyway not too happy, just finally had that long overdue big loss, where im out $377, never bet more than 5 hands of $19-20 each, but bet the max more hands than i should because i was pissed off about being stuck, and some of them were at even counts instead of plus counts. NONE of course were at negative counts though, im not an idiot. But that does show a complete lack of patience.

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    3. Rewind, play, rewind, play. Never changes, never will. I guess you are ok with the direction you are taking so enjoy.

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  6. last night i had $5 on lock when i fell asleep. tonight, i have $43 on lock

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    1. Two days ago you told me: "the low roll has done a lot to get rid of "tilt" issues. by that i mean im playing much lower variance, games where i wont lose my whole stack, and certainly wouldnt put twice as much at risk to get back a loss."

      Somehow I expected this level of caution and control to translate over to your VBJ grind. While you just said you weren't an idiot for donking off the $377 on a negative count please explain how doing the some of your big bets on even counts was a smart move?

      The other day you acknowledged how you were in a period of run-good and knew variance would catch you with you and it did last night. Would it have been possible for you to walk away and call it a session when you were stuck $100? If you had walked away minus $100 that is much better than being stuck $377.

      Regards, Lester

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  7. You have just dropped 25% of your life worth, and earlier on in the week, you were suggesting that you had control over bankroll management.

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    Replies
    1. nowhere near 25%, 25% wouldve been more like a $489 loss

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  8. How's progress towards making your goal of $1,000 in profits for the month of December grinding online SnGs against all them bad players?

    It looks like you've played a total of 60 SnGs so far, for an average of a little over 7 SnGs played a day.

    Your total profit since December 1 is -$34.96.

    Other than hoping to win more, any plans you can share about what you're doing to be more profitable when you play online?

    I know when I have unexpected bills or want to buy something I need or want, I work more so that I have more money.

    Any plans to play more than 6 or 7 SnGs a day? Have you had any success finding other areas in your life you could scale back on to free up more time for grinding online poker (especially now when you're worried about how low your bankroll is)?

    I know spirituality and friendships are very important to you but maybe cut back on time spent in church, volunteer work, and hanging out with friends? That could potentially free up some time for playing more online, which of course should dramatically boost your profits given how bad them players are on Lock.

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  9. Go to Vegas and put all you have left on a seat in a 2-5nl game. What's the difference between that and martingaling VBJ or in stepping up stakes in SNG's when you can't consistently win at lower stakes? What you actually need to do is get a job, get a life that doesn't revolve around pitying yourself for all the bad DECISIONS you've made. Afterall, you're in the boat you're in because of yourself and no one else. Not sure why I ever posted here as you're story has replayed itself over and over again for years.

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  10. Congratulations, it was only 20% of your liferoll. Yep, 20% is notwhere near 25%.

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