things are going ok, roll is up to $1900 now (not counting the fact i keep losing higher stakes sngs on lock) which is the highest its been in a long time. room's paid up over the weekend til monday. As commented on yesterday and im not if anyone seen it because no one said anything, allegiant is offering nonstop flights to reno starting in Feb. I'm now in a room which I actually like because there is NO connecting door, so i feel much safer, and also feel good that i finally have enough money to be using a safe deposit box again. Also its nice to have food in the room, unlike my earlier stay here.
But i really dont think this will work out forever. Why? well for one reason its taking far more hours than i expected to earn my room comps, running either $1200, $1500 or $3000 thru the machine when it deals incredibly slow and most of ur bets cannot exceed $1 due to a negative count takes an AWFULLY LONG TIME. now yes, im up around $400 total on these VBJ machines since i started following good bankroll management guidelines. But im running WAY WAY above expectation. my theoretical win should be about $50 or so since i started following these rules, (if im estimating correctly) not $400. it WILL change. but for me, i am just glad im at a much better machine, with a much better comp rate, and no longer have a theoretical loss.
Truth? well i dont know whats going on on LOCK poker. as can be proven by my stats on BCP, i used to do good in DON sngs. even higher limit sngs. i used to tell vook the $20 ones on merge were easier than the $10 ones. I'm actually getting SICK of playing online, (instead of LIVE) but i do want a chance to make money and play poker, and would be bored in the room otherwise, with the exception of candy crush saga on facebook. I do think the better merge players were on lock, and moved over when lock left merge. Also im wondering if a lot of those players are in collusion on lock, i see players calling allins with hands like A6 when its certainly not a good idea a lot of the times in a DON sng where the strategy differs. seems like they only want to bust the ones who arent in the "group".. and its not my chat, because there is NO chat on sngs. i see some pretty weird and horrible play at the $10 and $25 levels and thats why i cant understand whats going on.
truth is, i probably am running bad, and dont have near the sample size needed to know for sure. But not knowing whats up makes me uncomfortable, and makes me feel like maybe i shouldnt play unless im playing LIVE.
So if im tired of playing such long hours and nothing but VBJ, and sick of online low stakes poker, (i feel im playing too low--and thats why i keep wanting to play $25s) what i need to figure out is this, WHEN SHOULD I COME BACK TO VEGAS?
I'm afraid to come back with too little money. afraid my housing and transportation expenses will eat me alive, and ill wind up on the streets broke. The question everyone asks on AVP and 2+2 that no one can ever answer, is how much is needed to get settled in vegas and grind out poker to start off? No one can answer that, it really varies. $1900 is 100x better than $1100. But still, thats NOTHING when u take all those living expenses into account.
I could pay $149 for a week somewhere--and start playing poker at either the suncoast or somewhere else, but am i still good enough to beat the game like i used to be for the last 20 years? or has the rake gotten too high, the players too good, or have my skills deteriorated? i dont really think this is the case though, remember how snevman and others encouraged me to start tracking my poker winnings with my cell phone?
hourly profit $11.55 hr
this was around 5 weeks worth of tracking, still a small sample size i know. But these results are ONLY poker, and does show i can clear about $2500 or so a month if i wasnt just running way above average that month. and no that wasnt the riviera tourny, those were all cash games. none of which had exceptionally large wins because i always quit long before that.
it is interesting to know u can lose 43 out of 105 sessions, and still be an overall winner of about $3000. also a bunch of fixed limit sessions at terribles and elsewhere got factored into them results, probably bringing DOWN the average. I dont really think any spread limit sessions got included seeing that game goes in so few casinos and i was always playing where it was convenient to get to, to avoid transportation issues. this is a fault with me, going to where it was most convenient to play, instead of to where i might have done the best. Just because i hated taking buses or paying for cabs.
anyway what im saying is WHEN do i leave the area and go back to ONLY playing poker? should i go ahead and do it NOW (monday that is after the weekends up) and get started with a measly $1900 where i can easily go broke, or just sit here bored to death for a month and hope i dont lose my discipline one of these days if i get stuck too much, maybe play more online, and wait til i have $2500-3000 before i go back into vegas? i just dont know and i get so many conflicting and different answers, even the best of the advisors dont agree. i dont want to risk going back too soon, but am i also taking just as big a risk NOT going back? certainly dont want to risk my life ending up staying in the wrong housing in vegas, like too unsafe of a motel.
I must say, im quite proud and pleased with the cellphone tracking results, im glad others talked me into keeping track. and also now that lightning went home, and Mr Cutts never showed up, i am not sure which reader i know is next coming into vegas. The guy who runs the broken chip, never answered me on twitter or made any effort to meet when he came to vegas.