Friday, February 22, 2013

me and sickcallmggee have a big day ahead of us today

If i was to check out of my room right now (friday morning before 11am) (room is paid with comps up to 11am monday morning) i'd have $66 in comps, exactly $16 more in comps than i came with, and $1086 cash (includes bank and debit cards but NOT money on lock) which is $106 more in cash than i came with. Which means so far the trip to Jean has been a success, and has saved me from being on the streets of vegas completely penniless, and of course since returning to Jean, i never once played another video poker machine, or any machine without a plus EV. still have $92 on lock also, give or take the results of the $6 sng im currently in. My monthly internet bill will be coming out anytime though. Jason (cutter) and his friend Benny from roughing the punter left to go to mesquite, and Benny seems like a nice guy, not a bit like this other guy on roughing the punter, who im assuming might be bigshow5404, blurred, tripjacks, not atilla, wec, dudeobromy, anyone of those people or anyone similar whose been banned on the forums or whereever from the past, a lot of those people might even be the same person.

this is what Mad lib on roughing the punter said--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I despise TBC and hope he winds up homeless and soon thereafter, dead. Not even joking.


"posted by Mad Lib"



"Originally Posted by kimlee '

Why? Yes, he is selfish. But he is also autistic or mentally ill. The alternative seems to be some menial job with extensive (and expensive) supervision.

"posted by mad lib"

- He is a bigot
- He is a right-wing, bible thumping fanatic
- He is a hypocrite. He hates gays even though he has sex with men, hates minorities when he isn't caucasian, and hates people who take welfare when he is a bottom feeder himself
- He is a dangerous and unstable psycopath who endangers other customers and employees
- He is a horrible son and father
- He is a thief
- He is an unfit member of society. Doesn't bathe, doesn't contribute, and is a general parasite

Basically the guy is a total piece of shit and the world would be better off without him. Plus as he pointed out, if you can't make it gambling you deserve to be dead so I think he would agree with my feelings. My biggest hope is he goes busto, gets a stake to get back to Kansas, then a meteor crashed on his Mom's house with them inside and wipes out the entire Bigcharles clan.
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wondering who will fess up to being the asshole who left all these comments.

anyway, sickcallMcGee and i have a big day ahead of us. gotta do the laundry before the welfare dept opens, try to see if i can get that medical card the same day like Vince and his gf (who gets assistance) claims i can, and pick up $10 in free play at the hardrock, things from any boyd
gaming property gift shop, and some food at walmarts. Then sickcall needs a room here in jean, he dont get to move into his apt in vegas from laughlin til march 1.

A lot of the good bloggers have disappeared (think Josie, Stump, Man in Black, etc) and theres not as many good blogs as before. only people like me, Lightning, PPP and Rob are pressing on. Ive too often gotten fed up with the blog, and wanted to quit it, due to all the negativity. No one ever defends me in the blog when i do something good, or tells someone else (other than me) they are wrong when they say something thats inappropriate. Why do people think its ok to bad mouth my mom and son, and say they hope they die? not attila is an asshole for posting that comment about the westboro baptist church, we both despise that church because of the way it treats our soldiers and our military. Mom taught me that God loves homosexuals so much (not that God hates fags--which u see on them signs) that he sent Jesus to die for them and to save them, and that the way we show his love to homosexuals is to help them turn away from their sin. most liberals are far greater bigots than those who oppose gay sex. the left tries to force others to believe and think like them, instead of believing in free speech, and the right of us all to think for ourself. they want to control how we feel about whether its right or wrong, and try and force us to believe things in violation of our conscience, a far greater crime than telling a gay person she cant marry another woman. I'd think even some gays would agree. I wouldnt care so much about it, except when im browsing womens profiles on sites such as myyearbook.com and tagged.com so many of the women in the news feed u go to click on their profile and they are listed as bisexual. why are about 2% of men gay and about 25% of women? this is extremely lopsided and unsustainable.

Michele Bachmann and her husband were great in following God and trying to obey his commandments to love thy neighbor, they opened a clinic to help homosexuals who were struggling with their sexual orientation and wanted to change, and yet they were condemned for running that clinic. Almost no one makes the decision to become homosexual unless they were molested as a child. i was never homosexual, but that dont mean an adult never took advantage of me as a juvenile when i ran away from home and was in Georgia and Florida at the age of 17. Believing homosexuality is condemned in the Bible dont have anything to do with hating gays, and being afraid of certain people and neighborhoods dont have anything to do with being racist either, so no idea why i often get accused of this. the same people who call me racist are also too afraid to live in them same areas, due to the ethnic population of the other residents, but yet they claim they arent racist. theres certain areas of cleveland and detroit they wouldnt enter at night either.

im not sure why Mark at the riviera dont promote his room on my blog anymore, but he still does on twitter. seems they had a mixed game today, (tried to check bravo but couldnt for some reason) and the 28th is when they are supposed to start offering $2-20 spread limit holdem thurs-sat. if i lived in vegas and wasnt so broke, id want to check it out. im so broke i dont even think i should go out to the suncoast and play $2 single blind 0maha8 at the suncoast, if Mcgee was to suggest it today.

doing ok in the 6 max $6 and $15 don sngs though. not making great progress but generally holding over the $90 mark. still have not been playing multiple ones at once as vook suggested once. 6 max isnt as easy to multitable.

28 comments:

  1. - I have never heard of roughing the punter, nor care to know what it is.

    - I pity your mom and your son for how you treat them and how lowly you think of them. I wish them no harm though.

    - I believe you have my thoughts and intentions solely mistaken. I find the things you say about gays and minorities and women pretty disgusting, but hey not your fault. I think your lifestyle and choices you make are pretty terrible, given your mental state. I hate seeing people enable your addiction because they feel sorry for you. I don't like that you don't take advantage of government services you're entitled to, but instead feel you're also entitled to handouts and charity work from others, on top of the taxes they've already paid to give you a leg up through social services. But overall, I don't wish you any harm and if you read my posts objectively you would realize my point of view is simply opposite of yours on much of life. You may not agree with my point of view, but at the end of the day i have all the things you want so I might know what I am talking about.

    ReplyDelete
  2. posted by the chaperone on roughingthepunter.com----

    He doesn't have the roll for 25 cent FPDW, but at least he'd have an edge at that game if he took a shot. He really doesn't have an edge playing the VBJ the way he is. His count sucks (HiOptI with no ace side count or true count conversion), he is easily distracted by anyone who approaches him, and he is guessing at index numbers for strategy variations. It's like talking to a player who time warped from the 80s who thinks strategy variation is more important than bet spread. Could not be any more wrong, especially for a shoe game. Not only that, but he probably makes enough counting errors and bad guesses at strategy variations that he would be better off just playing basic strategy.

    He is holding fast to Cutter's thought that he cannot go broke if he never bets more than 1% of his roll. This is simply not true since his average advantage on those positive counts is less than 1% (see Kelly Criterion and keep in mind that BJ has a higher variance due to splits, doubles and the 3:2 bj payout). The other problem is that the -EV on the $1 bets eats at his bankroll as well.

    His bet spread is actually as follows:

    RC -3 or less: 1x$1
    RC -2 through +1: 3x$1
    RC +2 through +3: 3x$2
    RC +4 or greater: 1x$7 or 1x$8 depending on his whim.

    Of course there is a lot of pseudo-martingaling in there depending on his mood, how much he is up or down for the session or day, etc.

    (to be continued)

    ReplyDelete
  3. (continuation of his post, it was too long to not split up into parts)


    And yes, you read that right he is dropping to only one hand in positive counts due to someone telling him some nonsense about the cut card effect. There are two major problems with this tactic:

    a) you are getting 1 max bet per every 2 hands dealt (one to TBC and one to the dealer) which is .5 max bets/hand. Playing 3 spots, you get 3 max bets per every 4 hands dealt which is .75 max bets/hand. So this alone has dropped his effective bet spread by 33% (reducing his EV by much more than that, possibly even dropping him into negative territory).

    b) on the shoes that go positive and stay positive until the shuffle (the vast majority of them since the game is shuffled after only 80 cards), he is costing himself an average of 1 max bet per shoe on the last round. Imagine a positive shoe with 1 card left before the shuffle card comes out. A person betting 3 hands, will get all 3 hands dealt at that advantage, while TBC will only get 1 hand out and then the dealer will shuffle. Sometimes it will cost him 2 max bets in action and other times it will cost him only 1 like when he gets 2 rounds of 1 max bet instead of 1 round of 3, but the latter case is pretty well covered above in point a)

    In summary this cut card effect nonsense that he is using to justify playing only one hand is costing him 40-50% of his +EV action, which not only kills his win rate, but it makes him accrue points at a rate twice as slow as he should be, which is why he is always struggling to keep his room.

    It is mind-boggling to me that TBC has never considered this points and with all the time he spends on the internet, he has not done the slightest bit of research on such topics. He claims he is a "genious," yet he is incurably lazy and demonstrates only average intelligence at best.

    Also note, that executing his strategy perfectly, I would estimate that he is making something like $1/hr with a fairly high risk of ruin even at his puny stakes (with such low EV and upward drift, the variance can easily wipe him out). However, due to the poor execution of maintaining the count, playing strategy and primarily his inability to stick to his betting strategy (martingales, etc.), I would estimate TBC to be a -EV player even at such a dream VBJ machine as Dealer's Angel. Of course he will "come out ahead" with comps, but this only means that he will survive a number of months effectively paying his $800 bankroll for rent until he eventually goes busto. At least it will be warmer by then. Maybe some trucker will let him hitch a ride to the SD beaches in exchange for a BJ or something.

    --the above was posted by THE CHAPERONE, (friend of George who posted here before).

    ReplyDelete
  4. and heres my reply, part one.


    --the above was posted by THE CHAPERONE, (friend of George who posted here before). i've never met the chaperone, and i did him a huge favor once by telling him about the lucky club VBJ, for which ive never been properly thanked. If i had, he would realize im playing correctly if he watched.

    this above post is full of inaccuracies, remember the reason George thought i was betting multiple spots on negative counts was because we used a different count, and mine was neutral when his was negative. its always $1 on negative counts. (although at times ive bet 2 or 3 of $1 still, when in a hurry for comps, but not often). certainly not on more than negative 1. this could not hurt me much at all considering the much faster time in earning the comps, and the 1%. and on when i feel its getting to the shuffle, i dont have my max bet one spot of $7-8 as he says, its one spot of $6-11, maybe at the max and on rare occasions 3 spots of $11. often it might be like 2 spots of $8, or 3 spots of $6, or thereabouts. the point is one spot of $7 that late in the deck isnt giving me a wide enough spread.

    somehow im still up $106 after 8400 coin in, so my system cant be too bad. far better than when i used to lose my ass at shufflemaster VBJ in the river palms laughlin and slotsoffun, having to guess when the shuffle occured.

    i thought at +2 and +3 running counts, (not true counts) that isnt big enough edge to risk $5-6 one spot with my minuscule roll, so to reduce variance i divided it up into more hands. But today i switched, im now doing 2 bets of $3 instead of 3 bets of $2 to get more hands in before the shuffle. (on plus counts). neutral counts are still 3 hands of $1, sometimes less, and sometimes more. but basically thats the gist of it.

    the reason i had 3 spots out is basically to do what u are saying and get in more bets on the final round or 2, instead of doing the 1 spot cutter suggests. u and him can argue who is right. i do know Cutter is a nicer person (for telling me about the machine and buying the candy bars) and 100x more likely to enter Heaven when he dies than u.

    ---following post by Cutter--

    His count is not the problem. The fact that he won't listen is. He talks and will not listen.

    Period. I tell him one hand. Maybe 2. I created a model that trades off comps and profit.more comps at first then more profit later.

    The game is forgiving. But not forgiving enough to play 3 hands. It is a lightly penetrated game.

    He just doesnt listen. More concerned about chocolate bars and ramen.
    ----
    this is where the 2 pages of posts are, along with posts about my son and his mother.

    http://roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=1880&page=214

    and dont expect to be approved to post there, its not easy.
    -----

    ReplyDelete
  5. Cutter
    Career Jerkoff, Gambling Guru and/or Dipshit Join Date: Mar 2009
    Posts: 732



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tomcowley, the game is good for both counting and comp volume. Tony needs both. But he really needed needs comps more than profit.

    He should still not play more than 2 hands for other reasons.

    Understanding the floating advantage and other penetrative effects are beyond his comprehension. As i left he had 3 terminals locked up.

    The immediate stategy would be to play big at zero and plus. Small on minus. After gaining enough comps to live (Room and food) then find a more profitable way to play.

    I bet max 60 percent of the hands. Min 40 percent. And have done ok. Good rules cash back and good comps. Bad pen. Slow as molasses. That is the parameters.

    3 hands is assinine. He wont listen and asks questions but rejects answer. Like other folks. Dont ask me questions if you are going to completely disregard the answer. Do as you have and good luck.

    posted by Cutter, who gave me the candy bars and originally told me about the VBJ one day in laughlin. (the guy Tom was only thinking of bartop machines and didnt realize these existed)

    ReplyDelete

  6. Originally Posted by tomcowley
    Why the fuck is he betting anything but 1 spot of minimum at unprofitable counts?

    I couldn't tell you. I'm only reporting what my friend witnessed. Says he would start the shoe at 3x$1 and keep it there in neutral counts. I could see doing that to burn through the shoes quicker if he had a bigger bankroll and was spreading up to 3x$100 or something but with a 3-fig bankroll it makes no sense at all.

    I also disagree with Cutter on playing multiple spots. I don't think he's getting much heat from ploppies for playing 3 spots since he says he's usually heads up late at night. And playing multiple spots on the last round would be a good way of getting more money out there with less risk.

    Given the micro-bankroll, TBC should be doing the following:

    -Stop Martingaling (goes without saying, but...)
    -Switch to HiLo (can't be that hard to start counting deuces and aces)
    -Bet 1x$1 in all running counts of 2 or less
    -Bet 1x$4 when running count is between 3 and 6 (3x$4 if he knows it is the last round)
    -Bet 1x$8 when running count is >6 (3x$8 is fine if he knows it will be the last round)
    -If there is a ploppy on the game, sit out at running counts of -3 or less, or better yet if the ploppy doesn't seem to mind, just watch the game and wong in at running counts of +3 or more.
    -Forget about playing strategy variations and indexes. The penetration is so shallow that these hardly matter. If he insists on using some, he should stick with only the plays with indexes between -1 and +1 such as 12 vs 3 or 4, A6 or A7 vs 2 or 3, 9 vs 2, etc.

    It is absurd that he doesn't convert to a true count, but since the penetration is so shallow, it hardly matters and is somewhat acceptable to play as outlined above. Some of you might be wondering why 3x$8 is okay on the last round instead of 1x$8 and wondering about the risk. Well the edge is actually bigger there because if it is the last round it is by definition deeper in the shoe than previous spots with a similar running count (and therefore a higher true count and edge). The main thing is to get more money out on that last round in a favorable situation to improve both hourly win rate and comps earned per hour.

    I am sure TBC will read this, but like with everything else in his life, he won't take the advice. When he goes busto, it will be well-deserved.

    posted by the chaperone, also curious what sbr thinks of this since he too has played VBJ, and which of these guys he thinks is right.

    ReplyDelete
  7. posted by Cutter--


    Chappy. 3 hands would be good on last round and card eating. Card eating as you said does not apply when spreading so small.

    As usual u are taking the cliff notes version of card counting.

    Ratio of number of dealer cards to players cards causes a diminishing return.

    The game is only penetrated about 35 percent. This means the playing multiple hands on neutral negative and slightly positive counts allows for mini few were betting opportunities. As we all know when I cut card is used instead of a rule the player will see more negative count hands then positive ones. Combine all this s*** together. 3 inches a mother f****** disaster. You just really don't understand the effect of a small penetration.

    I pull money out of that f****** machine all the time. The key is the best 1 dollar or 0 dollars a negative counts. Especially when the company you 1 f****** percent.

    You also don't understand that Tony needs comp's far more than expectation. Provided he provides himself with enough spread such that he doesn't go broke. There's definitely some given take as to how much spreading and how much volume 1 would wish to get down in their situation

    ReplyDelete


  8. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    It didn't quite dawn on me that he wasnt using index numbers.

    Surrender numbers for 15 vs 10 come up all the time. Often playing the last spot helps with decisions. Others much less frequent it seems.

    How bad is the 10 count at a shoe?

    One quirk which makes little difference is that splitting and doubling money is also comped and cashed. So if you are on the bordee pull the trigger.

    Other features are available which do not effect tony yet. With a 100 to 1 spread you can eat cards in some sutuations. You can also back bet which has numerous possibilities depending on your goal. Bet small on your own hand multiple spots at negative. Hogpile on other counters hands on positive.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Tony, good luck at the welfare office. If things don't immediately go as you want them to, or if it seems to take more effort than you think it will, stick to it. It will be worth the efort in the end.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. thanks, had to try 3 times, and then got an apt to return

      Delete
  10. Show me a comment I've made about Westboro and I'll send you $50 on PayPal.

    Yes, TBC, of course you're right; everyone who is critical of you is really just the same person posting under different names.

    How could anyone be critical or question the motives of such a lovable scamp as yourself?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. id forgot who made that comment, realized later it was someone else. i know now it wasnt u, but had temporalily forgot

      Delete
  11. Weds, Feb 20 powerball numbers were: 3, 17, 19, 25, 32, pb= 17

    Which was a 100% miss from what I had put into play for you Tony.

    Sorry.... Lester

    ReplyDelete
  12. Giving Tony gambling strategy is like telling a chronic alcoholic that it's okay as long as he only drinks beer.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Honest to god - I had ZERO idea people put that much thought into VBJ! It reads as if they know what they're talking about, but I don't know enough to know if they're full of it or dead on. It does sound like info. at which Tony should look closely.

    Tony - if I read your post correctly, you were either sexually molested or sexually manipulated by some guy(s) when you were 17ish. I'm sorry - you didn't deserve that and it was wrong for those men to do that.

    s.i.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I don't think I've ever been banned. Just had comments not approved. I don't post much sine the shift back to this blog. Much preferred Proboards. If you read my post history, I never say anything that I would consider trolling.

    As far as my recent post that was not approved and has me at the top of your conspiracy theory list, I was responding to your extremely inflammatory post and pointing out how illogical it is to say that a more compassionate world is one in which people are left to die in the streets. I'm not trolling, TBC. But sometimes you do get me a bit riled up with your outlandish statements and actions.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The things tomcowley and chaperone say above are spot on. He's right that in a poorly penetrated game, converting to true count isn't as important. Same for index plays, they're just not that advantageous with such shitty pen. The surrender indexes of 15 v T is important due to it's frequency. Compared to index plays like A7v2 which happen very rarely.

    Using Hi-Opt 1 is terrible. Just absolutely terrible. Switch to HiLo immediately.

    He's also right that you should be sticking to one hand at all times EXCEPT on the last round before the shuffle. Then, I agree to spread to at least 3 hands in good counts. Each hand should be at 50% of your typical single hand wager at the equivalent count. You don't sacrifice anything by spreading on the last round before the shuffle.


    Tony, if I could summarize your failure at gambling in one of your own sentences, it would be

    "somehow im still up $106 after 8400 coin in, so my system cant be too bad."

    This is an ignorant statement, that no skilled AP would ever, ever, ever, ever, ever make. Your belief in that statement is the key reason why you're broke, and will always be broke. You always think you're right, when you rarely are.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Which one of these is incorrect ?

    - He is a bigot
    - He is a right-wing, bible thumping fanatic
    - He is a hypocrite. He hates gays even though he has sex with men, hates minorities when he isn't caucasian, and hates people who take welfare when he is a bottom feeder himself
    - He is a dangerous and unstable psycopath who endangers other customers and employees
    - He is a horrible son and father
    - He is a thief
    - He is an unfit member of society. Doesn't bathe, doesn't contribute, and is a general parasite

    You then go to berate homosexuals, and still haven't said why you "used to be one"

    You then post a load of comments about you, where they all say the same thing. You ask questions, and if you dont like the answers you ignore the advice. Same as you do here with everyone. Same reason you have fallen out with Koala and many other people who have helped you out.

    Please listen to SCM this weekend, and you maybe in a better state on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would say this part was incorrect - the world would not be better off without tony. Also, his mom may have opinions with which I disagree, but she's a loving woman who takes care of Tony's son - the world would be worse off without her:

      "Basically the guy is a total piece of shit and the world would be better off without him. Plus as he pointed out, if you can't make it gambling you deserve to be dead so I think he would agree with my feelings. My biggest hope is he goes busto, gets a stake to get back to Kansas, then a meteor crashed on his Mom's house with them inside and wipes out the entire Bigcharles clan."

      s.i.

      p.s. - I never see any posts saying bad things about Mark. I don't know why anyone would talk poorly of your son, Tony.

      Delete
  17. Tony, how many more people need to agree that you aren't truly am advantage player before you might consider trying something new?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anyone ever watch the show beavis and butthead? I can't help but think of tony when watching it.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Survey: what's more boring, the technical VBJ discussion, or the who knows more about stocks dick swinging contest?

    I vote both

    ReplyDelete
  20. Did SCM steal Tony's last $800 and bury him in the desert?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Tony update on medical card since that was the reason for going to Vegas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. theres an appt with the county on march 13, thats the earliest date i could get to get a card, thats the county social services, not the state of NV. Thank God for all the assistance and 5 hours of going to various places offered by sickcallmggee

      Delete
  22. There's some guy on roughingthepunter who's planning on getting you 86ed. You should report them to security or something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i read about that last night, but of course if someone was to sit down and start needling me id point out that post to security here, and to the casino manager here who always asks me how im doing. Neil is a nice guy. at first i thought that one guy sitting there last night might be him who offered to sell me his spot for $100 and said he knew how i play, but it wasnt him since he later wished me good luck when he left. hes a "professional craps player on the craps machine" at least in his mind and the mind of his friend Kevin. hes also a poker player who looked vaguely familiar. Thought it might be mike romanos from facebook but wasnt sure. good looking woman who was Mexican was in between me and him, at first i thought she was with him but turned out she wasnt. He also used to see me at binions on the VBJ, i think he mightve been the craps player staying at the plaza who i remember saying to all the players about his system if hes not the guy Mike.

      Delete
    2. cant really spend more time in comments here this morning, need to spend the next 30 minutes or so typing up the new blog and going to sleep, with both the bad news and the good news.

      Delete