Friday, March 1, 2013

A big thanks to Andy

well i still need comps, but of course not nearly as much as i need $$$$. i do finally have my room prepaid for an entire week now, up til next friday at 11am. Sorry for the slow updates, but as anyone in my situation totally a complete nervous wreck stressed over money and possibly becoming homeless and seeing life as im used to end, updating this blog really isnt the main thing in my life. Making sure i never run out of money and get on my feet is my number one priority. i look forward to the day i can return to playing poker with the same bankroll of $4000 plus i had when i first moved to Laughlin from Harbor Island, what a terrible mistake that was.

Been spending a lot of time on roughingthepunter.com especially at this one thread someone created for me (which koala managed to find).



Some of the guys are assholes which i think arent real members there, just came over from the blog to troll me. most of the forum is advantage SPORTS betting etc. But theres also a few +ev machine players (like Cutter) and also a few BJ players (the Chaperone) and i thought the forum would be helpful as far as getting various strategy for properly betting with BJ. I looked at some bankroll management simulation software but then after i downloaded it, it wont run calculations for counting cards unless u BUY the software, only for flat betting so it was useless. i wouldnt have the slightest idea what to download to get a real test of my counting system, betting systems, and have it run samples based on what i would bet on the actual game with the same rules and number of decks, and count.

the more i learn about VBJ, the more i worry. I used to have so much confidence i could beat the game, even if i wasnt sure when it shuffled. (old shufflemaster). lost so frequently on it, was relieved to learn about the dealers angels ones. Now its been verified these machines, (unlike the shufflemaster ones) are actually beatable because u can get an accurate count on them which u couldt do on the shufflemaster one. not only that depending on how bad u need comps, these are beatable flat betting $1 (but only if u count comps). But if u count, and no longer flat bet and vary ur bet by the count, u can get over 100% PLUS the 1% comps. These guys on the forum know what they are talking about, the vast majority of whom make their living off gambling. No recreational players here. But theres new problems.

u see, im worried about my spread. i used to think $1-8 was enough to beat the game, maybe even less. now its been recommended it be 1-20, 1-100 (at some day in the distant future--if u want to make a nice wage). the reason for needing such a huge spread is because of the POOR 38% penetration. So my bankroll (at $654) just isnt sufficient. even $8 cap bet is a high risk of ruin because its more than 1%. i did however cut back to 2 spots max to reduce variance and losing a ton on good counts. although that might hurt the overall win rate if i dont shove it out when i should.

anyone on here ever heard of the Fezzik brothers? they live and work in NYC and have lots of money and are sports handicappers. is well known on that forum. anyway the other day, i was quite pleasently surprised to get $250 on paypal from Andrew Fezzik. he asked me for my paypal info, and i assumed the amount he would be sending me would be quite a bit smaller. the email i got from paypal he stated it was a gift, and to not worry about paying it back, just to keep him updated in the forum of RTP and he also sent me a PM suggested an improvement in my betting system giving me a better chance to come out ahead in the long term and also taking on a little higher ROR than i was comfortable with. (essentially a max bet of 1.5% instead of 1%). Otherwise ive been told the $1 bets on negative counts will slowly destroy the roll without a wide enough spread.

Still, to be safe and after hearing lots of others horror stories on paypal, i wanted to see the money in the bank first, then taken out and turned into cash. and then just to sit and pray paypal didnt come back at me later with fraud charges and my bank if the transaction was somehow reversed in the future. But paypal said since it was sent as a gift, i should be ok. (called them on the phone).

it said it would take up to March 5 to have the money transferred into my bank account. (i dont have the debit card to get it instantly). I got a nice surprise this morning once i got back to my room and found the $250 already in the bank. so im going to go withdraw it, and my new roll is now officially $904 instead of $654. which means my new max bet can be $14. still not a wide enough spread, but maybe at least hopefully enough to be able te have someone do a simulation with a tiny +ev (without including comps) even if its as little as 25c per hour. that will keep me from going broke.

so a really big thank u to Andy Fezzik. i knew the only way out of this mess was with a loan of some sort, and it was nice he said dont worry about paying it back. still $900 is no bankroll at all, and with a 1.5% max bet im taking on way too much risk of ruin. and i guess andy realizes this too, so he sent me a 2nd paypal amount i didnt find out about until i got back to my room, for more than he sent me in the first paypal. so i logged into paypal and sent that to my bank also, maybe it will show up monday or tues. Even then i could still have bad luck and go broke. ill not feel more safe til i pass $2000, which is not much more than what i had when i left Jean for vegas, and that was a mistake, had i stayed in Jean the entire time, my roll would be a lot better today. theyve did simulations on RTP where eventually with a bankroll of $30k i could get $32 an hour cash and $74 comps. theres certainly no guarantee ill run that $1400 up to $2000, with such a high risk of ruin, it could go badly wrong, but he wants me to be able to have $20 eventually as my max bet, to make sure i have a theoretical +ev, no matter how high the risk of ruin

losing is hard on me, and i sure hope this stops the losses. when u need friends and money the most, most casino employees arent there for u anymore, ive noticed the night cocktail waitress isnt near as nice once i gave less often. i sure wish i had back all the $5 tips i gave on huge pots when i had the $8000-14000 roll, the extra $5000 or so i spent on tips over the last 3 yrs would solve all my problems right now. most poker players spend over $5000 on tips in just 6 months. the reason i get so angry and take losing so hard is because when ur money disappears, ur friends usually do too. For people around gambling are only ur friends if u have money to give them. I'm tired of having to be the one accepting the moolah. i want life back to when i was able to give Britni and Lorna all the moolah. If i was rich, i guarantee u i could make one hell of an exciting blog.

38 comments:

  1. In all honesty, I want you to succeed and make lots of money, but your blog won't be as exciting. The "excitement" in large part comes from your edge of the seat train wreck of a ride.

    It is sad your are thinking about the tips you could have saved (which is normal cost of doing business for a professional gambler), instead of the thousands you wasted on -EV machines, $800 cab rides, or your cross country trek to find the perfect card room only to earn more bans.

    It is your gambling addictions, and your flight response every time you get a bad downswing you should be working on.

    It is very generous of Andy to give u all this money, but I am afraid it is merely prolonging the inevitable. You need to hit rock bottom before u will work on your problems.

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  2. Well it's nice something good has come from going over to that other blog. I took a quick look and there might be a few people actually trying to help you. Of course you also have a serial stalker over there who's been following you all over the web. That POS needs a life. Must have zero social life but according to him, he's the greatest. Unfortunately he's the only one that sees that. My advice is just ignore everything he says and don't respond. He's just looking to get a reaction from you. That's the thing about the Internet. Anyone with a keyboard can be a bully or create some fake persona. They never get out in the real world so nobody finds out what a real loser they actually are. Good luck with things.

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    1. Tatude, I just wanted to say that I think you're awesome. That's all. Have a great weekend.

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    2. Josie thank you and you're awesome too. Everyday is a weekend for me lately but planning on enjoying the weather up here, gonna be around 75 today. Hope things are going well with you.

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    3. Might be nitpicking, but RTP isn't a blog. The website is run/owned by professional gamblers.

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    4. My bad , I just took a quick look. I will say one thing at the risk of stirring up a hornets nest. I know nothing about the people behind it but it hurts their integrity when you have people calling Tony a retard constantly over there. It's hard to take it serious. That is just my take on it and not knocking the site , but things like that do take away from it. Tony had some serial stalkers that will repeat the same stupid crap at whatever venue they can. I guess those that run the site can do what they want about it. It's not my business

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    5. There's a difference between breaking his balls and giving him a bit of a hard time and stalking and constantly harassing him. The latter is what I was referring to.

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    6. It is largely one person who is doing that. Even some members of RTP who are critical of Tony and find humor in regular "Tonyisms" have admonished the person. Why someone has such hatred toward Tony I do not understand.

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    7. The same guy has been doing it for years. He uses multiple aliases. Pretty sad. Obviously a very very insecure person. I'm all for fun but making jokes about rape etc isn't funny, and it's not like Tony chose to be autistic. He has control over a lot of what he says and does but that's not something he had a choice in.

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    8. I took a look at that TBC on RTP, looks like the person that was doing all the name calling signed up recently, probably for the express purpose of stalking Tony. Most of the other posters are either helpful or at least somewhat neutral. The owner of the site posted to tell that troll to tone it down.

      That troll, admitted to be Blackjackpro on this blog, the one who made up the bogus tip on how to count the VBJ machine with 2/3 penetration. Remember all that discussion on how to count the machine not knowing the shuffle point, but this guy told Tony the secret? Yeah, it is that loser.

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    9. It is annoying that someone is stalking Tony. Ridiculous someone would beat up on a guy who is down on his luck. Anyhow, as soon as someone posts to a moderated message board their anonymity is usually gone since the IP can be traced and obtained via court order if a libel suit becomes necessary. Hopefully it won't come to that but I believe Tony would have a good case.

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    10. Andy this guy has been stalking Tony for years. I used to help him mod his old blog. I think the guy is from NY. While there are some laws in cyber posts I don't know if there has been any violation and libel cases are hard to win. I doubt the idiot has any money for Tony to collect.

      It's amazing what you can find out about someone who has an web page. If motivated enough u can find out everything about them. Just gotta know who to contact. The guy has almost 100 posts about Tony in about a week. Hopefully the folks running the site get tired of it. I know if I was new to any site regardless of the subject matter and saw that stuff I would not take it too serious. That's too bad because I'm sure they've put a lot of work into it

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    11. The guy might be an asshole, but it seems like most of the shit he's been posting is picking on him for irrelevant shit that happened years ago. It might be a dick move but if what he's saying is based off actual statements from tony and other facts, it's not libel.

      Not to mention, there's no point suing someone who has no money. Someone who has nothing better to do all day then to sit around and bash someone over the net is most likely broke himself.

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    12. Most people who talk big on the internet have nothing to back up their talk.

      50 bucks says the loller guy is someone who's bitter at having to work a minimum wage job. "He gets 100K job offers every day", yeah.. right...

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  3. "Sorry for the slow updates, but as anyone in my situation totally a complete nervous wreck stressed over money and possibly becoming homeless and seeing life as im used to end, "

    Above is your direct quote.

    However, the other day you said you would rather continue to live the way you do and grinding for $2/hour because it's more fun than an actual Job.

    Where is the perspective?
    Working actual jobs are less fun than being completely worried about being homeless 99% of your waking hours and not knowing where your next meal is coming from or if you'll be able to have a place to sleep after Friday?

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  4. Tony, go pay for something and eat.

    It sounds like Andy has already given you over $500 to add to your roll. I don't think he's going to hold it against you if you spend money on food.

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  5. I have to agree with grouch here tony...25 cents an hour? You could go looking for change or recycle cans/bottles from the trash and beat that...even the bums who just walk around looking for the excess 15 cents or so tickets left in the machines would beat that rate, I don't get it. Why not work for 8 bucks an hour and then play when your off?

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    Replies
    1. Looking for the uncashed tickets / abandoned credits laying around isn't a bad idea. You can easily pick up quite a few of those every day.

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  6. Whenever I cash in a slots ticket, I leave the change behind. I think it's bad luck to take the change. I doubt I'm alone. You could do better than 25cents just checking the slot redemption machines for loose change.

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    1. You could probably do better then $2 / hour scrounging up uncashed credits / loose change

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    2. Let's hope PPP doesn't have other superstitions that hurt his bottom line, like folding AA preflop or the like ... : o )

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    3. A poker player I know got 86-ed for scrounging uncashed credits. They warned him once, then he was history.

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    4. thats the exact way i got banned a few places and i never bothered to try to lift them officially

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  7. Tony:

    I'm glad your roll is growing (huge props to Mr. Fezzik for helping him out), but you STILL need to have a plan in place in case of the following:

    A) You tilt and dump most of your roll (has happened many times)

    B) You tilt and explode, which results in you getting 86'd (has happened many times)

    C) You aren't able to handle the variance and your money slowly drips away (has happened many times)

    So....make sure you follow through on getting connected to social services and getting your SSI reinstated. I know you, and right now you're thinking, "My roll is up and everything is great...I don't need to trek back to Vegas for those things!" However, you need CONTINGENCY PLANS. Get those things in motion as a safety net.

    You've never been good about thinking long term, but you're also capable of change - show us what you can accomplish and follow through on those items!

    s.i.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. looks like the guy on rtp that gave tony the money knows who the guy that has been trolling tony relentlessly for years is. this is that asshole's twitter https://twitter.com/MarkEOrtega. he didn't deny it. Looks like hes a boxing columnist for some magazine or something had has 1800 followers. maybe somebody should let them and the magazine know that he likes to stalk and harass a guy with a learning disability.

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    1. heh, he looks like a douchebag

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    2. WOW, what a name from the past...funny shit I would have never thought of Mark Ortega but it makes sense. Yeah he knows Tony from as far back as I do. He has an infamous post on 2+2 concerning making a documentary about TBC that includes a ton of his famous quotes from the early days (pre-AVP). Haven't heard that name for years...

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    3. No idea who it is but, interestingly, a fellow named Mark E Ortega has posted long, ugly rants about Tony on several forums and, in fact, offered to try to make a movie about Tony. As best I can tell, the same Mark who made those posts is this boxing columnist and he lives in Vegas. The RTP poster who is harassing Tony also appears to be from Vegas based on an IP Trace

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    4. Yeah, actually on second thought it would make sense if it was that mark ortega guy, but he seems pretty busy judging by his twitter feed. I doubt he has the time to stalk big chuck 24 hours a day

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    5. This is that Mark Ortega, and I'd like to apologize for those ugly rants on message boards, but also point out that I was 18-21 years old when I acted that way, not that it is any excuse.

      Tony also made it very hard to take his situation seriously, especially at first with the way he posted on those boards. But I have moved on from that, I have read this site once or twice but I'm not doing any stalking.

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  9. I'm not entirely sure that the guy lollerskates giving Tony a hard time is this Mark Ortega person. It would not be a very nice thing for him if he is not the person giving Tony a tough time, and we started sending in a bucket full of complaints to this sports magazine.

    The founder of Roughing the punter, a person who posts under the name of Jon in Oakland (see page 21 of the tbc thread in roughing the punter) has already warned lollerskates to tone it down, and both Zin and I have questioned lollerskates ethics. Perhaps we would be better off directing our complaints to Jon in Oakland. He could always throw him off the site if he gets enough bad complaints. Just a thought......

    Koala

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    1. lol, you all are stupid for feeding the troll.

      responding to him, complaining about him, etc etc just makes him make more posts. best thing to do is to ignore him and he'll eventually go away

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  10. Gambling is the bet of cash or something of material cost on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods. Gambling is also a major international commercial activity, with the legal gambling market

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  11. Maybe you could get Andy to just go ahead and send you $10K the next time he sends you money via PayPal?

    Imagine how less stressful things would be with a bankroll of $10K again. Plus you'd save time (and eliminate more stress) from having to worry about his smaller transfers going through each time you need a top up, checking your bank account and PayPal constantly, etc.

    You've been running at about an overall -$10K/year clip for the last two years (when factoring in your SSI payments, jackpot win, gambling winnings, comps, and living expenses) so a big gift like that from Andy would set you up for a year. Plus you could increase your max bet a lot.

    Sounds like a win-win to me.

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  12. Isn't this the same Fezzik and Jon that used to post on LasVegasAdvisor with Anthony Curtis. The sport betting thread there got real ugly and Tony finally shut it down, at least for awhile. Haven't been heard these names for years.

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  13. This is most likely the same Mark Ortega...he's been around since the old Neverbeg days(one of Tony's old haunts)and he was banned from there years ago. I'm sure Tony remembers him from there.

    http://forum.parttimepoker.com/shooting-off-sponsored-carbon-poker/198046-am-i-not-allowed-read-thread-completely-before-responding.html

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  14. Tony says..."about $12,000 on bad years at poker, and about $30,000 on good years when i had a better roll."

    Tony, how did you come up with these figures?

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