well i still need comps, but of course not nearly as much as i need $$$$. i do finally have my room prepaid for an entire week now, up til next friday at 11am. Sorry for the slow updates, but as anyone in my situation totally a complete nervous wreck stressed over money and possibly becoming homeless and seeing life as im used to end, updating this blog really isnt the main thing in my life. Making sure i never run out of money and get on my feet is my number one priority. i look forward to the day i can return to playing poker with the same bankroll of $4000 plus i had when i first moved to Laughlin from Harbor Island, what a terrible mistake that was.
Been spending a lot of time on roughingthepunter.com especially at this one thread someone created for me (which koala managed to find).
Some of the guys are assholes which i think arent real members there, just came over from the blog to troll me. most of the forum is advantage SPORTS betting etc. But theres also a few +ev machine players (like Cutter) and also a few BJ players (the Chaperone) and i thought the forum would be helpful as far as getting various strategy for properly betting with BJ. I looked at some bankroll management simulation software but then after i downloaded it, it wont run calculations for counting cards unless u BUY the software, only for flat betting so it was useless. i wouldnt have the slightest idea what to download to get a real test of my counting system, betting systems, and have it run samples based on what i would bet on the actual game with the same rules and number of decks, and count.
the more i learn about VBJ, the more i worry. I used to have so much confidence i could beat the game, even if i wasnt sure when it shuffled. (old shufflemaster). lost so frequently on it, was relieved to learn about the dealers angels ones. Now its been verified these machines, (unlike the shufflemaster ones) are actually beatable because u can get an accurate count on them which u couldt do on the shufflemaster one. not only that depending on how bad u need comps, these are beatable flat betting $1 (but only if u count comps). But if u count, and no longer flat bet and vary ur bet by the count, u can get over 100% PLUS the 1% comps. These guys on the forum know what they are talking about, the vast majority of whom make their living off gambling. No recreational players here. But theres new problems.
u see, im worried about my spread. i used to think $1-8 was enough to beat the game, maybe even less. now its been recommended it be 1-20, 1-100 (at some day in the distant future--if u want to make a nice wage). the reason for needing such a huge spread is because of the POOR 38% penetration. So my bankroll (at $654) just isnt sufficient. even $8 cap bet is a high risk of ruin because its more than 1%. i did however cut back to 2 spots max to reduce variance and losing a ton on good counts. although that might hurt the overall win rate if i dont shove it out when i should.
anyone on here ever heard of the Fezzik brothers? they live and work in NYC and have lots of money and are sports handicappers. is well known on that forum. anyway the other day, i was quite pleasently surprised to get $250 on paypal from Andrew Fezzik. he asked me for my paypal info, and i assumed the amount he would be sending me would be quite a bit smaller. the email i got from paypal he stated it was a gift, and to not worry about paying it back, just to keep him updated in the forum of RTP and he also sent me a PM suggested an improvement in my betting system giving me a better chance to come out ahead in the long term and also taking on a little higher ROR than i was comfortable with. (essentially a max bet of 1.5% instead of 1%). Otherwise ive been told the $1 bets on negative counts will slowly destroy the roll without a wide enough spread.
Still, to be safe and after hearing lots of others horror stories on paypal, i wanted to see the money in the bank first, then taken out and turned into cash. and then just to sit and pray paypal didnt come back at me later with fraud charges and my bank if the transaction was somehow reversed in the future. But paypal said since it was sent as a gift, i should be ok. (called them on the phone).
it said it would take up to March 5 to have the money transferred into my bank account. (i dont have the debit card to get it instantly). I got a nice surprise this morning once i got back to my room and found the $250 already in the bank. so im going to go withdraw it, and my new roll is now officially $904 instead of $654. which means my new max bet can be $14. still not a wide enough spread, but maybe at least hopefully enough to be able te have someone do a simulation with a tiny +ev (without including comps) even if its as little as 25c per hour. that will keep me from going broke.
so a really big thank u to Andy Fezzik. i knew the only way out of this mess was with a loan of some sort, and it was nice he said dont worry about paying it back. still $900 is no bankroll at all, and with a 1.5% max bet im taking on way too much risk of ruin. and i guess andy realizes this too, so he sent me a 2nd paypal amount i didnt find out about until i got back to my room, for more than he sent me in the first paypal. so i logged into paypal and sent that to my bank also, maybe it will show up monday or tues. Even then i could still have bad luck and go broke. ill not feel more safe til i pass $2000, which is not much more than what i had when i left Jean for vegas, and that was a mistake, had i stayed in Jean the entire time, my roll would be a lot better today. theyve did simulations on RTP where eventually with a bankroll of $30k i could get $32 an hour cash and $74 comps. theres certainly no guarantee ill run that $1400 up to $2000, with such a high risk of ruin, it could go badly wrong, but he wants me to be able to have $20 eventually as my max bet, to make sure i have a theoretical +ev, no matter how high the risk of ruin
losing is hard on me, and i sure hope this stops the losses. when u need friends and money the most, most casino employees arent there for u anymore, ive noticed the night cocktail waitress isnt near as nice once i gave less often. i sure wish i had back all the $5 tips i gave on huge pots when i had the $8000-14000 roll, the extra $5000 or so i spent on tips over the last 3 yrs would solve all my problems right now. most poker players spend over $5000 on tips in just 6 months. the reason i get so angry and take losing so hard is because when ur money disappears, ur friends usually do too. For people around gambling are only ur friends if u have money to give them. I'm tired of having to be the one accepting the moolah. i want life back to when i was able to give Britni and Lorna all the moolah. If i was rich, i guarantee u i could make one hell of an exciting blog.