Thursday, February 20, 2014

Back to playing $1-2 NL spread limit wont cut it without a good promotion like the Palms had--otherwise the rakes too high

Now yesterday i went to the Sante Fe to play, and to begin with all i could play was $3-6 limit when the AA promotion was going on, and i managed to win $67 in it. was lucky to do so, was stuck quite a bit when i suddenly won 4 pots in a row--2 were kill pots. and as soon as the NL opened shortly about 12 noon i moved.

couldnt get a hand for nothing in the NL, kept adding to my stack $20 or so here and there--and eventually was in the game for $208. was down to about $70, and then somehow worked it back to $196 (and really shouldve quit) when the following hand occured. for the longest while it wasnt a good game, but it was starting to loosen up finally.

guy straddles the button for $5, multiple callers, i call with 88. guy near button makes it $11. straddle calls, so does everyone else. i call. flop comes KQ8 with 2 hearts and i know giving free cards wouldnt be wise as much as is in the pot and as draw heavy as the board is. checked to me, i bet $60, and one of the guys puts me allin, (not the raiser or the straddler) i call (someone told me i cant fold there or even consider it) and theres so many hands i can beat hes right. figured his most likely hand is KQ, but no, he had KKK and didnt raise the straddle or the raiser. go figure.

and thats why i went out and threw away $217 in the spin poker 96% payback there last night. went home to vinces pissed, and slept. lost only $5 playing on UP a short time between last night and this morning. id play MORE on UP if the game selection wasnt so lousy. am still holding $928 on UP.

so today i rode the bus to the nugget, to play in better games and avoid the pitfalls of getting stuck in limit and then feeling the only way to get it back is to play things i shouldnt. (was hoping $2700+ was still enough to afford NL). i bought in $100, and slowly kept adding to my stack when i wasnt getting cards til i was in the game for $157. (eventually cashing out $221). thats when i knew i had too much on the table and went to take the break.

there were 3 or so bad players and a lot of regulars, and one of the bad players is who i won from. i limp the other $1 with K3 spades. flop comes Q97 with 2 spades, and i call his $5 bet. id commented about if i could get away with a check raise there (id just did it the hand before with trips and won a small pot off same guy)

turn comes Js for flush, i check, he bets $10, i bet $25. he calls. river comes blank, i bet $30, he puts me allin, i call, he flopped 777. everyone but him knew i had the flush.

but i still think the commerce is better--u see there i cannot play machines at all--and i couldve just moved tables for the min buyin--instead of having to take this hour or so break before i can sit back down with $100 instead of risking the whole $221. and not one person at the nugget mentioned my last blog post, and Crystal dont work that early in the day. i told u none of them read the blog.

Cizzle is a blooming idiot if he thinks im not the one posting. and i forgot when mormon in vegas is going to be in town. snevman will too soon i think.


37 comments:

  1. Tony you need to work harder on your nl game why are you not raising with 88 how strong a hand do you need to raise pre? And your lead out size is so big your never getting worse to call or better to fold. You need to think about these things. I'm glad you are playing nl stick to the touristy places and stay away from stations casinos.

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  2. why raise with 88? i might not be last to act (was in middle position), and the 7 out of 8 times u dont flop sets u usually need to fold, and if u knock someone out preflop whod double u up if u flop a set--u miss out on a lot. and what good would it done? he wouldnt have folded KK under any condition. i dont like to bloat pots when trying to control the pot size til i hit. and my bet on the flop was about the size of the pot, so its not too large a bet. $11 preflop, by 5 or 6 of us with the straddle and small raise. and im getting a lot of worse hands to call or raise even such as KA KQ TJ nut flush draw, etc.

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    1. One reason - you can represent something other than 88 in those cases when you miss the flop . . . C-bet when you miss depending on the flop and the number of callers.... you can win a lot of hands even when you don't flop a set. But, what do I know . . .

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    2. Ummm, you played the hand poorly. It wouldn't have mattered in this case, cuz you got coolered.....but you raise with 88 to get out all of the limpers with crap. If you don't the chance of them hitting their hand or a drawing board is much higher and is -ev. You want them out. Also your "7 out of 8 times you don't flop sets you fold" is total bullshit. Especially if you have overcards to the board.

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    3. @blurred a lot of fail in this post. We aren't raising to "get crap hands out". We also don't want them out. We are raising to get value. That's it. If an inferior hand calls we make money. Period

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    4. Yeah Brian, limp into pots with 88 with 6 other people and see how much that works out for you in the end. DONK

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    5. More proof- I put your villains with shitty hands too, except the AK.

      You usually end up 4th best letting so many other players in. This is best case scenario being AK is the only premium hand you're against. It's usually going to be worse for you.
      Hold'em Simulation
      600,000 trials (Randomized)
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      88 15.07% 86,319 9,022
      ak 30.22% 181,098 1,317
      89 10.72% 56,499 16,507
      43 11.10% 66,399 1,317
      9j 16.96% 97,783 8,802
      22 15.94% 95,395 1,317


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    6. @blurred reading comprehension son...I agree we want to raise but we aren't raising so that crappy hands fold. We are raising to get value out of our hand which rates to be ahead of their limping ranges. If we raise and get called by inferior hands we make money. Nowhere did I state or imply that limping was optimal (though there are spots where it may be).

      Be glad to compare results over a large sample if you think I'm a donk sir.

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    7. you said you "don't want the hands out"...lol

      keep back peddling

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    8. Correct I want crappy hands to call my raise not fold. Seems like poker 101

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  3. sad to say the day didnt end up as good as when i made this blog post. i lost $47 at the gold spike while playing on UP, mostly to PokerKat on a bad call, and then went back to the nugget and lost the entire amount of cash. now my rolls in the $2500s and im home in bed and playing on UP again.

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  4. Tony I've lived and been playing poker in Vegas for years and in that whole time I haven't put a dime in a machine. Why would you need to play in Cali if you don't have self control issues or a serious problem?

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  5. Reading your hand historys makes my eyes hurt...stop being results oriented like most fish. Raise bigger on the flush hand and lead a lot bigger on the river...he has a hand. You are lucky he is a bigger fish than you and jammed.

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  6. Tony the way you evaluate hands is results oriented. It doesn't matter what the other guy had because you style of play is too predictable. You won't raise with pairs playing a short stack then what do you raise with aa kk qq jj and ak? If you want to limp small pairs you need 30x behind to make it profitable when you flop a set since you play short you can't use that strategy. What I'm suggesting is you raise the top 25% of your hands to narrow it to one or two players and leave one pot size bet behind that you shove on the flop. This is an example of a un exploitable strategy that you should use

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  7. the 3 or so bad players at the nugget .that means u to right? lol

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  8. Why don't you answer this question - it is not trolling.

    You have nothing to show for your 10+ years of gambling. Just the same old up and down pattern of wins and losses. You save nothing - you own nothing but a computer that will die eventually. Why do you think this is?? How could someone who thinks he is so smart NOT be able to see that you are NOT capable of managing money outside of gambling. Why?

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    1. but the same is true of most others--no one has any money for emergencies. thats why people go to places with 100% interest rates for tiny loans of $200 or even way less than $100. basically, only poker gives u a true chance of success in this country. people with regular jobs also live paycheck to paycheck for 5-10 15 yrs and the second they lose their job--theyre soon out on the street or applying for welfare and food stamps. no one really has anything to show for anything whose been poor most of their life. no one has any assets or any money saved up--except for those with a lot of money. about 15% of every household in america is no better off financially than i am. the only difference is a lot of those people live off the govt and im not comfortable with that i dont want to be controlled by others-or end up getting in trouble due to having to follow too many rules

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    2. Tony is right on this. Between 1/2 and 2/3 of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck:

      http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/24/pf/emergency-savings/

      s.i.

      p.s. - stop chasing your goddamned losses, Tony!!!!

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    3. Tony, even if what you said is true, that means a full 85% of American household is doing better than you. Are you really happy to be in the bottom 15%?

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    4. Tony you dont even have the basics like a roof over your head - you just dont have it. You have to wonder where you will lay your head at night.
      People who live paycheck to paycheck have apartments, houses, mortgages, etc.
      .
      You still never answered why you have accumulated nothing! Not even something like a steady place to live.

      You are fooling yourself by trying compare to someone who works a job and gets a steady income every week or 2 weeks. Even your money isn't guaranteed unlike someone who lives paycheck to paycheck. They may lose their job at some point but while they work they will always receive money. You are not the same as those people. Wake the fuck up.

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    5. I don't know Hangar. Whether you bounce around from one hotel room to another or rent an apartment, it's about the same. You don't own either one and just piss the money away. TBC has lived this way for years on end, probably outlasting the a good percentage of those people you deem "more successful".

      I'm TBCs biggest critic, but you're just brainwashed if you think some guy working a shit job he hates living paycheck to paycheck and paying someone elses mortgage living in their property is more successful.

      That being said, TBC should be a Walmart greeter, but he's too afraid of responsibility.

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    6. Equating renting with pissing money away shows a severe lack of knowledge of finance.

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    7. The job further down on the walmart scale that is the easiest to get hired for is to be the guy getting the shopping carts out of the parking lot and back into the store. Not much interaction with customers. Once you get that job and you show up for work on time the first two weeks you have that job for life as long as you show up for work time...

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    8. I worked carts at a LI food store for 2 years. Later, I was promoted to the dairy aisle where I spent another 6 years before ultimately ending up at "Big Law." So, clearly, it opens up some doors.

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    9. So 8 years from now you could possibly face off in court with Tony as your opposing counsel if I follow your logic correctly?

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    10. I hear ya Blurred but the point is that most of those folks are better off than angry BigChild.

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    11. SBR-if you don't understand that owning and paying a mortgage builds equity, than it's you that doesn't understand finance. Blasting off a large percentage of your income every month never to be seen again is simple economics.

      Hangar-point taken.....but for years I've told everyone to quit giving TBC advice because he never takes it.

      He's an autistic gambling degen that'll live that way until he dies or goes broke....(then he'll panhandle and get gov assistance and be back at it)

      It's all he knows, it's all he's ever done, and that's all he'll ever do.

      The stupidity around here lies with the notion he can or may change.

      Like I always say, just watch the show.

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    12. Blurred - If you don't understand that home owners blast off money in property taxes, maintenance, insurance, utilities, never to be seen again, then you don't understand finance.

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    13. Go look up the word equity, retard.

      You don't have any when you rent

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  9. STOP WORRYING ABOUT THE RAKE! It TILTS you! Only the person who WINS the pot pays the rake! You should be HAPPY to pay it! Bet an extra 4$, and if the other guy calls and you win, HE just paid the rake! Think of it that way! RAKE hasn't cost you 250 this week, playing BAD VP has!

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  10. i just withdrew $600, and left the other $379 in there, and of course it usually takes about 3 days to be approved. but im short of cash and dont want to take more out of the bank. still only in the $2500s. will continue to sit here and play on UP with what cash i left on there. i left plenty there.

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  11. You had $200 and you wanted to cash out, so leave and cash out. Instead you lost and then lost $200 at slot machines? That's a $400 swing. Don't get mad if you lose at poker, that's what a bankroll is for, you will only win maybe 60-70 percent of sessions.

    Can you stop playing slot machines for 2 months? Is that too much to ask, just stop please, and play poker instead. I will almost guarantee you will have $5k at the end of two months. Let me know if you are willing to do this. If you comply I will give you $200 at the end via PayPal.

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    1. Don't waste your time - Tony is not capable of not playing machines for even a day or 2 unless there are none nearby.

      No self-control, no will power, tilt issues and overall just no fucking clue!

      Your life aint changing Tony - even with a jackpot.

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    2. I wish that someone would give me $200 not to do something... :) Interesting proposition...

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    3. He doesn't play slot machines. He plays video poker and video blackjack. They're very different. Smart people can play those games profitably. Tony thinks he's the smartest person in the world, so this leads him to conclude that hey can play them profitably. Unfortunately, he doesn't know the math and he doesn't have the discipline even if he did.

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    4. This kind of experiments had happened before. All that happened was it led him to play worse machines in out of the way places, and then lied about his wins/losses.

      Unless you can watch over him 24/7, there is no point making an offer like this.

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    5. Why anyone would pay a degenerate gambler $200 not to lose money on VP and VBJ machines is beyond me? Pokerdogg is right. All it will do is encourage Tony to lie. But even if you were successful in getting Tony not to play for two months, then what? He'll go blow the $200 on VP as soon as he has it and loses a hand of poker. This is one problem you cannot fix by throwing money at it.

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