Monday, March 17, 2014

my only hope--is to get better at poker.

Games arent getting any easier, and the rakes arent getting any lower. neither are prices getting any smaller. therefore--i must strive my best to make better decisions while at the table--and away from the table.

one "mistake" i see myself making a lot is trying to get all the money in on the flop, when ive got a huge draw. i do this--because i know on the turn, if i dont hit--i go from like a 70-30 favorite to like a 70-30 dog, and im trying to avoid this from happening--and since i expect to be unlucky and not improve--i want to get the money in on the 1 and only street im still in good shape. (why get the money in bad u see?)

so this is what i did a little while ago--and is why i left the stratosphere with nothing of my $50 buyin. and i had it up to $106 at one point. i was down to about $66, and a guy raises it to $11 preflop, and i called (the only caller) with KQ hearts, and that was the first mistake. second mistake was checking dark--i shouldve just shoved, but since he had aa, wouldnt have changed anything. flop comes up 69T with 2 hearts--not a bad flop for my hand. but i guess my overcards werent outs after all. he bets $30 and pot commits himself, i go allin, and he calls and it comes black 2, black 5.

and the one other hand that cost me $30 occured earlier. this one lady from IA with her husband, she almost didnt want to call a $200 allin when she had the nut straight, worrying she mightve overlooked something, and it was still the turn. took her forever to finally call. and she was making it $6 preflop quite a lot more than she should. so me, thinking im probably ahead and a big bet would scare her off--makes it $30 with AQ hearts when she bets $6. and it worked fine for getting the other kid whose a regular out who called the $6 (a reg who usually loses). but no, she calls, and i get a bad flop of 69J clubs, and id planned to continuation bet most any flop but that one, i check, she bets $30 and i never saw her hand. i muck. what would u have done? i didnt fold the winner did i?

yeah a lot of similar hands developed while playing snevmans $200 stake the other day, and i feel bad because i had it up to $710 once. (but not on the table) hands where i was catching good flops with top pair and 4 to the flush. and then blanking out totally, and once to a really bad river beat.

so i went to the V to play with different people, in better games, and also to play omaha. lost 2 seperate sessions at different tables in the omaha, with the same kind of monster drawing hands that kept missing. think im running way below ev on draws lately. usually whether u have a good night or a bad night depend on ur biggest draws. also played a little bit of NL there but broke about even in it. heres one hand where i gave back most of an earlier NL win except for $10.

i have KJ suited and call $6 to see the flop, new girl on my immediate right raised. flop comes KJ6 all in the wrong suit since its clubs instead of spades. she bet $15, i call, other lady calls whose new also just sat but i recognize her as a good regular. turn pairs the wrong damn card, the 6. she bets $30, i call, (probably shouldnt) other lady calls. river blanks, she checks, i check, other lady bets $40, she calls, i fold, and the good regular has 78 clubs for a flush.

also ran into tierscore there--and didnt know who he was til he told me--and told him how bad i felt about losing the stake back. (although snevman isnt out any money--theres still the $220 left of his $200 that he said to just hold for him til he returns, and wouldnt be around to email for 3 days.)

a big thanks to AKgal, who got permission for me to play in the mon night PLO tourny at P-ho. ill be there tonight, hopefully if i make a bus and bust out of my sng on bovada quick enough. i have to be on my best behaviour while im there--and ive been told the poker manager Chris has okayed it with security. for reasons unknown--she said to post it on the blog--and to try and bring other friends along to come play with me. i think tomorrow night ill be in the strat with donkeytax for the 7pm tourny, and i think AKgal will bring me by some tshirts then.

also am looking forward to mormoninvegas coming to town, and i wish i had his phone number. and i think thepokermeister is coming to town soon, i dont have his phone either.

also it seems the link to pokermonkeys blog dont work--i thought he quit publishing--but it seems hes wrote a lot of blogs lately-and i didnt find out til i seen his twitter feed. when i have more time--ill have to figure out why it dont work--did he change his address?

hopefully i remember to call Ray on the city bus to PHO. i hate the way he has a landline where u cant text too.

58 comments:

  1. Getting better at poker is a good goal to have Tony. Games durring the NCAA tourney should be good. The 8 16 Omaha game at the V should be good. You have to be willing to gamble though, I got stuck three or four racks before hitting some hands. The actions so good you should profit just by playing decent hands. I would suggest that you don't talk when playing because the new people won't know you.

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    1. cant afford the $8-16, still dont have enough for the $4-8 either.

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  2. Shoving big draws on the flop isn't a major leak, because:

    1) It's usually +EV.
    2) It doesn't happen very often.

    The fact that you don't understand this underscores your lack of understanding of poker. That is your biggest leak.

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    1. Yes exactly, the only 70/30 flop draws in holdem are FD+OESD+2OCs. Extremely rare. And on a brick turn you go from 70/30 to around 47/53 not 30/70. Which... you know... has certain implications.

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  3. Thanks for the call Tony, I understand you were loading on the bus when the call dropped. Tony just for the record i agree with the fold of the AQ of hearts. A flush on the flop with 2 cards to go, nah don't want to mess with any cont. bet. The cont. betting in a nl pot limit game can become very tricky. You're definately right about games becoming harder. So many i also see wanting to push all in after the flop = scared poker. Sorry that is just a fact and a bad habbit i think to get into. No one likes being out drawn but then again why flip 100 dollars all in coins for a living. This is why i always felt like out of all the games NL hold 'em leads to more bad gambling habbits. It forces you to consantly assume and gamble compared to being able to come out ahead in a structure where probabilities paid off in the long run. 3 years maybe the money dries up and structured games re-invent themselves maybe. Who knows.

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    1. what do u think of my last hand history post

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  4. "a big thanks to AKgal, who got permission for me to play in the mon night PLO tourny at P-ho."

    I hope you went out of your way to personally thank everybody involved in giving you this chance--at least the ones who are accessible.

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    1. I really don't understand how AKgal could vouche for your good character per se so you could get into the PHo tournament given the fact you had so very recently been 86d from the Gold Strike for the trifecta demolition of glassware...

      How did you do at PHo?

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    2. Yes, Tony, I second Grump's comments. Not only Alaskagal, who vouched for you, but Chris as well. Considering you are banned from ALL CET properties, I am amazed that he was able to get into the poker room for the one night. I'm sure he had to pull more than a few strings to pull it off. Incredibly nice of him.

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    3. very doubtful,sir. keep posting on yr blog,rakewell.i am guessing not much biking with this weather but r there a lot of bike paths. where u live?

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    4. lester--akgal set this up--right before the gold strike ban--and i told u guys about it right after the ban

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    5. Thanks for clarifying the time involved...

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  5. If getting better at poker is your "only hope," what specific (let me emphasize that word--SPECIFIC) steps are you going to take to make that happen? Hire a coach to review difficult hands you've played? Join a poker training site and commit to some number of hours per week watching their videos? Buy heads-up software for online poker and learn how to use it? Read X number of poker books per month?

    My guess is none of the above. Instead, you'll just vaguely wish to get better, but do essentially nothing to make it happen. I guess that because that's what you've always done before, and you are not exactly a champion of changing your ways.

    But I'd be happy to have you prove me wrong.

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  6. How are you going to get better at poker?

    Please list the detailed steps you plan on taking.

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  7. "A goal without a plan is just a wish." -Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

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  8. Tony:

    You now have a goal ("play better poker"), which is great. It's great to have goals in life - research consistently states that identifying a goal is important to achieving that goal, and that sharing that goal with others makes you even more likely to achieve the goal.

    So far, so good.

    The next step for you is to identify HOW you are going to achieve that goal. Saying you're going to "make better decisions" doesn't really cut it, as making better decisions is simply another way of saying "play better poker" - they're the same thing.

    So, you're next task on the road to goal achievement is to identify HOW you're going to achieve the goal of playing better poker/making better decisions. You've shared repeatedly that you will not read poker books, despite numerous suggestions that you should. You've shared repeatedly that you won't review poker hands or sign up for training sites, despite numerous suggestions that you should. In the past, you've always said that the way you'll get better is simply to play more poker. However, this has yet to lead to you playing better, it's simply playing more of the same poker.

    So, I'll ask you straight up: "WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO (SPECIFIC STEPS) TO ACHIEVE YOUR GOAL OF PLAYING BETTER POKER?"

    I look forward to your response. I know you can achieve your goal, if you are really invested in achieving it.

    sincerely,

    s.i.

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    1. Pretty funny that so many of us posted the same things about needing specific steps to fulfil his goals.

      So, Tony - what's it gonna be?

      s.i.

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    2. the way to get better at poker is to post MORE hand histories--and to leave the game when i know im not playing my best--and thats the main thing. spending more time with friends helps too.

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    3. Posting more hand history will do nothing to improve your game, because the quality of your hand history is poor, despite many people telling u what is lacking for years. More importantly, you ignore questions & advice when people respond to your HH >90% of the time.

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  9. Tony, I sent you my email address in a separate note, but please don't post it. Let me know if you want to play some poker Friday night this week. I already have set plans with college friends to hang out during the day on Friday and watching some NCAA basketball. I then have dinner plans with my Aunt until probably 930 or 10. I will not have a car but will be willing to meet and play some poker just about anywhere. I will also buy you dinner if you want since I will most likely be hungry since my aunts cooking is shit.

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  10. Tony i believe pokermonkey is blogging at Cardschat poker forum.

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  11. Tony, from I know of you, anyone willing to put their own reputation on the line to help you get back into a room you are banned from deserves an immense amount of gratitude! The risk/reward can't be +EV.

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  12. Goals are for soccer.

    You should just just find a good machine and run that sum bitch up.

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  13. bought some reading glasses tonight that work great--275 amplification--didnt need near that much though--cost me $6 they better work good for that price--no 99c stores near the casino i was playing. actually i think ill play at the V more--seem to do better there--at least in NL if not so much in the omaha. i ran bad in it last time i played omaha there.

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  14. would like to give an example of why its not a good idea for me to have $290 on the table--at least til my roll is a lot higher where it dont mean nearly as much to me. i was way up in the game--and thinking about quitting--but the game was quite good. a lot of big stacks on tilt. guy who was quite talkative, a regular, out with friends-a black guy--and once had $400+ in front of him, makes it $15. other decent Euro regular tourist calls the $15, and i call, with position on both of them. flop comes 862 rainbow, black guy bets $15, euro calls, and i make it $35. (what would u have bet?) they both have me covered. turn comes 5 putting 2 spades on the board. black guy checks, euro guy bets $85 and i think a while--then fold. was that a good fold or a bad fold?

    black guy calls the $85. river comes Q. black guy checks, euro goes allin, black guy shows nut flush draw and folds. never saw the euros hand. which guy should i been more worried of since the black guy was the original preflop raiser?

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    1. I would bet $45 on the flop and fold 35% of the time on the turn. you should worry more about the taller guy.

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    2. You're leaving out key information. Did the black guy have a girlfriend? What race was she?

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    3. That was very funny, Sbr. Kudos.

      I'm assuming Tony has set this up as a guessing game (not really, of course). I think Tony was in late position and had to have been holding very solid cards to call $15 pre flop, but obviously not JJ or above, or he would have raised.

      So....I'm guessing Tony had an overpair of either 10/10 or 9/9 to have raised on that board. I think he made a good fold.

      Was I right, Tony?

      s.i.

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  15. Just to point out to you the odds on a Monster Draw after the flop. Not sure your definition of a Monster Draw, but in the example you gave us KQh v AA you are behind even on the flop 46.87% v 52.22% (if the A is a heart 42.32% v 56.77%) and the so-called black on the turn make it 30/70+. You are almost NEVER ahead on the flop for any draw except the rare example shown above by other posters.

    In fact, in a simple flush draw or open-ended straight draw situation on the flop you are close to a 2 to 1 dog in most instances, and it only gets much worse on the turn (about 20/80)

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  16. Just to point out to you the odds on a Monster Draw after the flop. Not sure your definition of a Monster Draw, but in the example you gave us KQh v AA you are behind even on the flop 46.87% v 52.22% (if the A is a heart 42.32% v 56.77%) and the so-called black on the turn make it 30/70+. You are almost NEVER ahead on the flop for any draw except the rare example shown above by other posters.

    In fact, in a simple flush draw or open-ended straight draw situation on the flop you are close to a 2 to 1 dog in most instances, and it only gets much worse on the turn (about 20/80)

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  17. On an 8 6 2 rainbow board with a black guy in the hand and $50 of my own money in the pot... I always fold when the turn card pops. It's easier to fold and just keep buying in sometimes.

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  18. oops i left out my hole cards--odd only 1 guy noticed this. i had JJ

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    1. We noticed ... we just don't care about irrelevant information. Whether your stuck or not for the day is the most important thing ... followed by the number of black people at the table.

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    2. What range did you put the Euro on?. He flat called the $15 and did not three bet. Does this give you any information? ON the flop, he calls $15, and then calls your min-raise. ON the turn, he leads for $85 into $135. Then he shoves a blank on the river . . . . Would he have played QQ to AA like this? Would he have called preflop and turn with connectors (T9, 89) which have you beat? Was he capable of playing a spade draw like this?

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    3. Why didn't you raise preflop with a squeeze play? Even if the raiser calls, you're in position with a quality hand. Scared of raising the pot because of his and your stack>?

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    4. Why didn't you reraise preflop? You had position and a quality hand. Scared of his and your stack to raise the pot?

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    5. well i dont like reraising with JJ, either im a 80-20 underdog or only 50-50, thats poor odds and i sometimes do it but dont like QQ much more. is this the wrong way to feel? and i have no idea really how to read the european, or most other people. others are better at it than me, all i can do is play tighter than others.

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    6. 1. You're playing poker not video poker, your pre-flop odds are largely irrelevant. 2. People have been known to open-raise with pairs smaller than JJ. 3. You may not be good at reading people, but by paying attention you should at least be able to range them.

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    7. So you don't 3b this hand pre but you think it is good to min raise the flop 3 ways? That doesn't make any sense. You don't range your opponents, you don't give any reads on them. How in the world can we analyze these hands. You are a level 1 thinker playing the 2 cards in your hand IMO. Need to get beyond that to be a winning player

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    8. I would 3 bet in position with JJ, unless you have a read that he is super tight and never raising early without QQ+.

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  19. Tony, if you're talking about that last hand with the talker and the african man, do you mean you had JJ? By the way i wanted to give kudos to S.I. for a year now i have enjoyed the comments. Thanks for the reading s.i.

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  20. Tony use the turn card more often and do not overbet the flop. I agree QQ and JJ both not real great hands and with 3 or 4 to one on the flop pocket pairs like that become dangerous. The more loose the game the harder pocket pairs can be to win with, no matter what the strength is unless of course you hit and boat.

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    1. You might wanna run some multiway equity calculations with QQ/JJ before you embarrass yourself further.

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    2. Who is gonna be running this on this blog? Could you please do it so the less informed and terrible players here (ie Lightning ;) ) can have an idea what you are talking about with your poker gibberish...

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    3. too much work 4 TBC better to just look stupid

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  21. Tony if you realllly want to improve areas of your game you need to focus on some fundamental bet sizing and opponent ranging issues, you can't just hope to get better you have to say "today I will (insert goal)" or for the week or month ect then actually follow through with the plan at the table.

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  22. Kat i am basically having fun on my friend tony's blog. But if you really think you're a pro typing on blogs and talking algorythms you sound more lost and clueless than i had imagined. Some people enjoy Tony's comments and like to see how he is doing. Seriously 99% of self proclaimed poker pro's lie about their losing streaks and claim to have all the math covered but couldn't play the player if their life depended on it. So relax pal.

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    1. I've learned that people who scoff at math are typically people who couldn't balance a checkbook if there was a gun to their head.

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  23. DonkeyTax actually just gave better advice to Tony than these wanna be hustlers with the constant percentage. You would think living in Vegas would teach some the art of hustling a poker table.

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    1. John Doe, do you realize your friend has no concept of bet sizing, ranging as well as very little focus? You also realize all of the proper advice given has gone in one ear and out the other right?

      You really aren't one of Tony's friends if you are still telling him to gamble. He is horrible at it and if it weren't for a few unsuspecting dupes who think TBC is a pro at anything, he would be busto.

      If any of you were his friend you would be paying for his much needed dental work, providing him with a ride to and from the dentist and giving him that much needed poker stake since he is a pro.

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  24. Now Kat "supercool" Martin, how are you reading players in any poker game if you can't read through my bullshit on a blog. Give the math on that probability pal.

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    1. My grandmother was a fortune teller.

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  25. Tony, how about you lay off the jabs at your last dentist. Christ, after decades of oral hygiene neglect, what exactly were you hoping for? That's like running a car into a brick wall, taking it to the mechanic, and being pissed that it's not driveable the next day.

    Also, you better build up a dentist fund, because it sounds like all your teeth are going to have to come out at some point in your life unless you actually start taking care of them.

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  26. However, I confess I still struggle with reading the semi-literate.

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  27. Anyone who commented three times in under ten minute and essentially says nothing, needs to go out and apply for a life.

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  28. Hey tony I was thinking you should check your comps $ at the V and work it up then I would maybe cover the difference and the house fee for one of the survivor deep stacks you wanted to play, we can just figure out a decent split based on the amounts.

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