Monday, July 28, 2014

guest post by XDEX7


I do not recall for how long I have been following Tony’s story.  After all, his story is as old as the internet.  I am only going to focus on the last year and a half of Tony’s adventures. Several other people have referred to Tony as “Hero” or “Our Hero” (especially Pete P. Peters) and I plan to interchangeably use Tony/Hero in this post.  The last eighteen months have not been easy but our Hero has been through a lot in his long and strenuous gambling career.  Tony began 2013 with about $2000 to his name.  In 2013, he set out to improve his overall net worth; but before February ended, Tony was under $1000 and had taken up residence at the (truckers gambling spot) Gold Strike Hotel & Gambling Hall in Jean, Nevada.  He spent countless nights playing the Dealer’s Angles Blackjack machine in order to earn free rooms and win some money.  While Tony was struggling in Jean, a late Christmas gift came but it was not delivered by Saint Nick.  In fact, Santa Andy was kind enough to send our Hero money and food.  At the halfway point of 2013, Tony was hanging on to $1300.  He got tired of living like a zombie in Jean and needed a change.  Down to $1000, he returned to Vegas and was relying on Vince for transportation and shelter.  July continued to be a bad month for Tony.  He moved his operation to Southern California in search of “gold”.  In his case, gold stood for a land of cheap poker buy-ins and no machines.  Our Hero’s kryptonite is made up of video poker and video blackjack.  Times were rough because he was down to his last $500 and unable to afford a room; our Hero resorted to sleeping outside for a short period of time in San Diego.  The immense pressure to survive would have forced most men to abandon gambling and look for a more suitable solution; but true to his gambling spirit (addiction?) our Hero did not waiver from his plan.  He returned to the battlefield (casinos) to fight on.  Waving the white flag was not an option and would only have happened if his net worth reached $0.  In September we saw our Hero do quite well on Bovada playing online poker.  He managed to win close to $1000 on the site.  It was a much needed financial boost.  Tony put a nice streak together and finished the year above $2000.  On one hand, he was able to stage a comeback from $500.  On the other hand, he started 2013 with $2000 and did not improve financially.  He had a tough year but in the end was back to where he started.  In January of 2014, Tony was back in California and doing what he does best; he was playing poker at the Commerce Casino in Los Angeles, buying in for $40, grinding a profit, and then relaxing in a room inside the spa.  Before January was up, our Hero returned to Vegas and upon arrival dropped down to $1500.  Lady Luck knocked on our Hero’s door in early February.  With a combination of winning a high hand promo, receiving a share of a Bad Beat Jackpot, and a profitable session on a video blackjack machine, our Hero and Lady Luck elevated his net worth above $2300.  The good times kept on rolling and by the first week of April, Tony managed to continue his improbable comeback and briefly surpassed the $6000 mark!  He was planning a trip to Kansas to see his family.  It was going to be his vacation but Lady Luck beat him to it.  She left our Hero without a warning and before he made it to Kansas he was down to $3700.  After visiting his family, he was back in Nevada the first week of May and feeling rejuvenated and ready to get back to work (gambling).  The only problem was that Lady Luck was still on vacation.  Without her, Tony only had one way to go – downhill. Before he knew it, he was back down to $1000.  In less than two months our Hero lost $5000!  Fortunately for Tony, after her month off, Lady Luck returned and rewarded him immediately.  The reward came in the form of a Royal Flush promo for which Tony collected over $750.
Recently, our Hero took his talents to Reno and it looks like the decision has brought him some stability.  It appears that Tony has found a city where he feels safe, apartment renting prices are reasonable, buy-ins for poker are low, and he can play online poker.  Tony net worth is back to over $5000!  I do hope that our Hero can manage to stay in Reno for the remainder of the year and accumulate over 500 poker hours in the same game/environment.  Not too long ago, Tony was down and I thought out.  In the past year and a half our Hero has shown great resilience.  We saw him zigzag across the Western United States just like the Pony Express did over 150 years ago.  We saw him increase his net worth while paying for an endless number of motels, cabs, meals, bus fares, kitchen supplies, and hundreds of tee-shirts.  I wish him luck and success on his quest to $10,000. And I hope (when he reaches $10,000) that he is disciplined enough not to let his new net worth trick him into playing the higher limit games.  My suggestion to our Hero is – Put a daily stop-loss at $300.  This would mean that Tony could lose $300 at poker for 30 straight days and still have some money left over.  I believe that he is good enough that he will not have 30 consecutive losing sessions at the poker table.  But the question remains - By the end of 2014, will our Hero find himself closer to $1000 or $10,000?
Good Luck Tony!

38 comments:

  1. If you could have broken this up into digestible paragraphs, I might have been inclined to read it.

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  2. Tony, nice of you to have an 8 year old guest post for you.

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  3. I enjoyed the post. Fuck the haters.

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  4. i was in a hurry to post a new blog entry, and was too lazy to divide it up into paragraphs (or even write my own entry), nor did i even realize it wasnt already in paragraphs, so i copied and posted as written, and only edited out one small thing in it. this was in the works for about 10 days from when he first emailed me.

    since it wasnt hard for ME to read, i forget that it would be hard for OTHERS to read.

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    1. It's hard to read because it's dull.

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    2. it's horribly written , even if he used paragraphs it would still be awful

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  5. just got home from the peppermill a short while ago, only to eat and get online and then i need to go back. quite disappointed i only won $40, and im still at $14 an hour after hitting the 296 hour mark. am still holding onto $5116.

    won a big pot with 4 queens, and got about as much out of my opponent as i could, he called me for $93 allin on the river. am praying my hi hand holds up til 6pm for if it does, that will give me another $100 when i go back over there. still out a lot from the $6075 i briefly had a few days back. also i need to put in a ton more hours tonight, because ill get paid $300 right away for any more 4 of a kinds for 24 hours now.

    looked at the chart on the back wall, and i am the customer with more hours than anyone else for the month of july.

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    1. you realize how small the ev is for getting quads in the next 24 hours right?

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    2. What do you think the ev is for this promo?

      My best guess is around $3/hr, which is a significant increase for my estimated win rate for Tony in a 1/2 game.

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  6. was seriously disappointed on the final hand, i shouldve won a lot more. both me and a regular had aa preflop, and we got it allin for over $200 each. i lost the hand when 4 diamonds came out to give him a flush, and we were both all in preflop. that really hurt.

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  7. The writing style of this post is incredible. I want Xdex7 to write my obituary (but hopefully not soon).

    But this...this...this line:

    "our Hero took his talents to Reno"

    I laughed hysterically for 5 straight minutes.

    Tony Bigcharles & LeBron James...separated at birth????

    Awesome, just awesome.

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    1. Thanks Rob. Just remember, my editor had the final say on what material was acceptable/appropriate. I was fine with little censorship. You pro bloggers are much better at this. I hope Tony gives me another chance when he reaches $10,000!

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  8. Not sure what the point of this post was. All they did was regurgitate information that was already included in this very blog over the course of the last year and a half. I thought maybe they would bring some kind insight or personal perspective to the story, but no...it was just a retelling with subtle barbs and attempts at humor at Tony's expense that Tony apparently missed.

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    1. This reminded me of the recap episodes that the show Survivor would have on halfway through the season. Does this mean that we are in the summer TBC repeat season?

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    2. no i wouldnt say i missed it, i thought it didnt paint me in the greatest light, but a whole bunch of others said it painted me in a better light. (said this elsewhere, twitter, RTP, etc).

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    3. PREVIOUSLY, on TBC.......

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  9. i finally managed to get 2 4 of a kinds in a 24 hour period, and this second time, it held up. so i finally have over $5500 and an hourly of $15 per hour again. i shouldve won way more, but i was down over $300 in the game so im glad i got $650 worth of bonus payouts, and the dealer got $25.

    a guy came in with a lot of chips when the game was breaking up with 3 of us, kept wanting us to play him HU or 3 handed, and eventually i quit when i got the hi hand, then i hung around for 30 more minutes, hoping it would hold up, lost money moving to $3-6 (which didnt count) then later came back to $1-2 when it restarted up. he waited around the whole time, he really wanted to play as shorthanded as possible, and he bought in big. wouldnt be a bit surprised if he knows of my blog and was targeting me. ive never seen him. i was lucky to get out of there with about $275 profit.

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    1. Jeez Tony, you think the world is loaded with people who read your blog and then go looking for you. Oh wait -- I'll bet there are people sitting at your table right now who read it and are targeting you. If you are not currently playing, I'll bet they are following you around. Look for a guy wearing khaki shorts and a tee shirt or polo shirt ...

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  10. i do fear ive got way more 4 of a kinds than normal in the last few weeks.

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    1. If I had a dollar for every time I had this same fear, I'd be rich.

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  11. 315 hours total logged, $15 hour profit, standard deviation $118, and $5643 remaining. Pokerdogg--dont u consider those to be good stats, and arent they better than u thought id be at once i passed 300 hours?

    what would be the next goal once ive passed $10,000 and have more than 500 hours logged? would it then be wise to shoot for $25-30 an hour at the $3-5 NL, or when would u suggest i do that? what needs to be done first?

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    1. I have always said 500 hours is the MINIMUM number of hours to get an IDEA of your win rate. Most people considers that too little, and feel that 1000, or even 2000 hours are required. So what should I say about 315 hours at $15/hr? I think it is promising, but too early to tell.

      The other problem is with including the promo wins in the hourly calculation. It adds variance to your numbers. If you keep track of it separately, it can be an indicator of how well you are running. In the long run, you should expect to win back the $ you put into the promo fund. For a tight player, that probably works out to be $1 to $1.50 per hour. For 315 hours, that works out to be around $315 to $427.50. It is somewhat complicated by the progressive nature of this particular quads promo, but still, one can get an idea from looking at the numbers. How much do you think you have won in total promo $ in the 315 hours?

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    2. What needs to be done first is for you to actually get $10000 in your roll. A couple of years ago you had built your roll up to $12000 and then you went on a brain fart losing machine spree, and the infamous $800 taxi ride from Reno back to Las Vegas. Since then you have never got even close to $7000.

      You need to not count your chickens before they hatch. I don't see the need for you to risk your roll gambling at a higher level when you are comfortable winning at $15 an hour tax free. Your lifestyle requirements are pretty basic, so why risk disaster on the machines, and lose even more, which you will surely run too when you tilt on the poker tables again, for playing at too high a level for your roll and ability.

      Get the $10,000 first and then ask those questions.

      Koala

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    3. the fact that im having money taken out of the pots, is why i feel like the promo money should be the same as money won in a regular pot. u see, its like it being set aside in a bank acct, and withdrawn in lump sums on a regular basis. im sure i contribute about $3 per hour as often as i win a pot. tight players win back MORE than they contribute cause they play much better quality hands that hit hi hands more. i think ive got $75 $75 $300 $350 $300 or something close to it in promotional hands in the $1-2 since tracking.

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    4. its not true i never had $7000 or close to it since. id swear i was briefly over $7000 right before i lost over $1200-1400 at Harrahs Joliet and then blew up at the guy who slowrolled me. (right after id returned to the poker room from a big loss in the live BJ pit) $15 an hour will never make me rich, with a large roll of $40k or more, so almost all professionals advise moving to $2-5 NL and earning over $25-40 an hour as soon as u can afford to do so and still be a long term winner. in fact this advice is pretty unanimous.

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    5. Before moving up I think you should consider doing the following:
      If you haven't yet, get your tooth fixed
      Save 3 months living expenses and start paying rent monthly if you don't plan to move (you mentioned this will save you money)
      Assuming you still buy in short, buy in deeper at 1-2 to get more comfortable with deeper stack play (in a way playing deeper is like moving up, if you play well deep it will result in higher hourly rate)

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    6. Agree with Koala, get the 10,000 first, then worry about what to do with it. If you do get there, continue grinding,

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    7. Tony says..."the fact that im having money taken out of the pots, is why i feel like the promo money should be the same as money won in a regular pot. u see, its like it being set aside in a bank acct, and withdrawn in lump sums on a regular basis. im sure i contribute about $3 per hour as often as i win a pot. tight players win back MORE than they contribute cause they play much better quality hands that hit hi hands more. "

      Tony, if you are a tight player, it means you play less hand. When you fold your hand preflop out of blinds, you do not contribute to the promo drop. I am assuming 30 hands per hour, $1 promo drop. Not all hands get dropped for the promo fund, I assumed 25/30 get dropped. By definition, an average player in a 10 handed table contributes 1/10, or $2.50/hr. I don't really know how tight you play, having never met you, but there is no way you contribute $3/hr, may be $2/hr is more accurate.

      Lets assume you paid $630 in promo fund, and you got $1100 in high hand wins. That is almost double your expected winnings, I will leave it to you to draw your conclusion.

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    8. Tony says..."i feel like the promo money should be the same as money won in a regular pot. u see, its like it being set aside in a bank acct, and withdrawn in lump sums on a regular basis."

      Obviously, you do not withdraw in lump sums on a regular basis, because it is quite irregular. I am not saying don't track the promo wins, I am saying keep track separately. Otherwise, you introduce another source of variance, which means you need more hours to get an idea of your long term win rate. With the promo wins commingled with the hand win/loss, I am afraid 500 hours is not sufficient to get an idea of your win rate. May be 750-1000 hours is more reasonable.

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  12. http://sevencard2003.blogspot.com/2012/05/please-dont-miss-previous-post-second.html heres the proof of me having $7900 on May 2012

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    1. Quit getting hung up on details, you're missing the point.

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  13. Assuming 30 raked hands per hour and all of your 315 hours are in this game with the promo drop, your share of the jackpot drop is about $945. This is fairly close to the $1100 you have collected. I see no problem tracking the high hands with your results, just keep in mind when you run good with the high hands it could skew your results a bit.

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  14. Theres never more than 9 players, often 5 or 6. Way more than 30 hands are dealt per hour

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    1. lol like you play short handed

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    2. Haha, no. If there is indeed only 5 or 6 players at a time, then you may play closer to 35 hands per hour. But the other side of that is that many hands will not reach the amount needed to trigger the jackpot drop due to regular chopping of the blinds and raise and take pots that do not generate a pot at all. Good luck with your continued success!

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