Friday, August 15, 2014

An open letter to all who are concerned about my decision making process.

Theres a lot i want to say, but everything is buried down so far in the comments, unless u are subscribing to every new comment, theres a lot u will miss. the good news is im now over $8000 for the first time in years, went home to eat and get online Bovada while i update the blog, and keep finding ways to improve my decision making process. i might even play one of the $100 survivor tournys at the Atlantis this week. the top 10% get a flat $1000 each, and no other alterations to the prize pool are permitted. Am thinking that even if my bankroll isnt enough for $3-5 NL, or other forms of +ev games, its probably about time in my old age i get a little bit more tourny experience.

Yeah it feels good to finally be over $8000. never thought i would a while back, and im sitting on $8028. So im not really making too many bad decisions, even the ones that look bad.

enclosed are 2 comments on the bottom of the blog, yet unreplied to, and i figured id reprint them here so they get seen by all. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tony, this might seem a little harsh, it's not because I want to pick on you, but because I care about you and want to see you succeed. I think what you did last night was reckless. If you keep up this behavior you will be broke again in no time. You seem to think it's all okay because you ended up a winner for the day, but you need to remember that it's all about the long term. You can play good and win more than you can reasonably expect (run good), or you can play good and lose (run bad), but the only important thing is that you play good and make good choices. Making good choices includes staying away from blackjack, VBJ and VP, and other house games. If you do that you will win long term. Last night you made several bad choices that will cost you money in the long run. I think we all believe that you can win long term, provided you don't sabotage yourself.

If you think you're ready to start taking shots at 3-5, you should be selective about when you do this, and not just play when you're running bad at 1-2. Make sure that the game is good, you're not tired or tilted and that you're willing to go back to 1-2 or go home if things don't go well. The swings in a bigger game will be larger (of course), which could cause you to tilt faster than at 1-2.

When things went bad at 3-5 you should have just want back to 1-2, or if the 1-2 game was that bad go home. Instead you decided to rebuy again (and again?), obviously you're on tilt at this point so you go back to your old habits of trying to win it all back at blackjack. You got lucky at the blackjack table which cooled off your tilt, but what if you didn't get lucky? Would you have had a -$1k day? -$2k? When would you stop?

DO NOT move up or take shots when tilted, bored or tired
DO NOT rebuy multiple times when taking a shot at a higher limit
DO NOT play blackjack or any house game when you get tilted (go home and play on bovada)
DO NOT straddle
DO NOT show your hand unless it is required to win the pot

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Reply

John MertzAugust 15, 2014 at 5:01 PM
Tony,
I believe you can beat 1/2 No Limit and make a decent living. I think you should have 10,000 before you take shots at 2/5 No Limit. Once there, if your roll goes down to 9,000 then you need to move back to 1/2 until you reach 12,000. Then try again.

On Bovada, play the double or nothing sit-n-go's. My longest winning streak has been 8 games. I've been playing these in the evenings for about a month now. I'm playing the 20 + 1 level.

Stay away from Black Jack and the VP & VBJ machines. In the long run, you will lose your money.

Keep up the good work and become a poker legend. Keep grinding.

ohcowboy12go
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---------ok first of all i know usually when im making bad decisions, and likewise when im making good ones. that dont always cause me not to continue in them bad decisions, but i know what they are, for the most part. a bad decision is playing any machine that isnt free play and has less than 100% payout (including comps, etc) or any table bet that dont have an edge. a 2nd bad decision is playing when too tired or too hungry and u just dont feel like playing any more. a 3rd bad decision is playing when u can no longer play well due to having too much (or too little) on the table. i feel like this did effect me last night, i gave back $100 at the end.

The decision to play table BJ for $100 a hand flat bet (maximum value allowed on coupon) probably was NOT the best decision, but it took a lot of thought to come to this conclusion, and at the time i played yesterday, i was doing the best i knew with the less thought put into it and limited info i had then. Most of the changes in my play for the better here lately have come from listening to others ideas (such as tracking $1-2 results). also online articles, loosening up my game, and learning how much better loose aggressive players do over tight aggressive ones. (in other words, bluffing, straddling and so forth). u cant be afraid to make changes, or open up ur game. i think at least Vook would agree.

i DO need more in my Bovada account, and ive found the games im actually showing the most consistent profit in are the sngs, so those are really all i should be playing mostly. i just hate doing anything to subtract cash out of my actual bank acct roll as we all know, so i never get around to making a really big deposit there.

if i took shots at $2-5 NL (its actually $3-5 NL) with $10,000, i wouldnt need to lose 5 whole buyins to go back to $1-2 NL and the impt thing ISNT to have $10k, its to have at least 30 buyins which is 6k, and that it be the better game than the $1-2 im at. that is the most valid reason for moving tables. I certainly had a good reason to think it was a better game than the one i was in, (the game had poor action, another player with a roll of only $6500 (lower than mine) whose well known as a winning player and has a big thread on  http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/174/poker-goals-challenges/grinding-up-bankroll-move-vegas-1038462/


had just moved to that table. if he can do it with less money than me (id asked him earlier) and knew he would win overall and it was worth it, i knew the same thing. my problem is in my last 20 yrs ive not taken nearly enough shots, and this is a reason im so poor today.

a lot of u are guilty of looking at the results, and assume since i lost a hand or two where i had a big edge when the money went allin, it must of been a bad decision.

and i wasnt tilted when i went to play the BJ, it was one of the best times to go play it (as opposed to a VP machine with a payback under 100%). i had a coupon giving me a slight +ev, although not near as good as the eldorado coupons me and Benny were doing, and i felt i should take advantage of the full max value of the coupon. now that was probably an err, since i had less than 100 bets, i feel i shouldve done only $50 instead of $100 flat bets. also i knew i wouldnt lose $1000 or $2000. the most id lost was the $937 i brought and since id never bet without double down and split money in reserve, id not lost more than 2-3 hundred even flat betting $100. started off winning the first hand or 2, so continued playing. ive still got the coupons it could take a very long time to ever get a suited BJ.

but even though it wasnt the best decision about what to bet, the process was good. i mean i thought i was making a good decision since Benny and Cutter agreed at the eldorado with a $2500 roll i should max bet the full $25 on those coupons. I'd still be doing that today if i wasnt banned, and if i ever went anywhere that had a printer on the computer i could use, id print Nicks letter up and try to lift the ban. this still needs done, but having some time pass first is probably good idea. at least i hope so.

and not straddling? its the button straddle, not the UTG straddle im making. all the LAG world class pros wouldnt find no fault with me doing it, it increases their winrates substantially because it shows how they are no longer readable, and conpletely unpredictable, things ive struggled with in the past.

not showing hands? if u dont show bluffs, u wont later get paid off, and mainly once u show someone a bluff, they donk off heavily the entire night thereafter, so its very +ev.

-------anyway i ate, increased my bovada balance to $48 from $21 by winning my sng, and now want to get over to the casino and get back to work, now that the new blog is up and off my mind, and im no longer starving for food. wish the Peppermill had as good of soup as the atlantis and that u could order FREE once a day like atlantis.

Things seem to be going as good as theyve ever been. im almost right back to where i was before i paid the $800 cab fare to vegas from Reno. But with cheaper housing and a lot better player than i was a few years ago. (not having no more of $500-$1000 drops on VP i did a few times on my previous reno visit which made the $15k go down so fast). and now i stick to only the better VBJ machines. When the roll was dropping a lot from the big highs years ago, a lot of the VBJ drops were on the even money 7 hands at once type Binions machines and Planet Hollywood machines i used to play, those are also at the Wynn, and several times they caused me substantial losses. eliminating those losses is really helping. so what im really saying is this $8000 now has a much bigger chance of success than the $15k did a few years prior.

theres no money $20-40 and $30-60 stud games in LA, no more games i dont know that well, no more big losses on VP, ($100-200 losses arent big losses), and my games greatly improved. also im avoiding $5-10 NL which really is too high even for shots.

and although theres many places out east id like to visit, and have MORE now that when i did visit them many years ago (so would have a much better shot of success this time)--its probably still best i continue right in this area doing what im doing. i just would feel 100% better with a whole lot nicer place to live is all. then i wouldnt want to go as much.

i'd like to honestly know how many of u thought the day id be over $8000 again would never come.

31 comments:

  1. Tony,
    Good job on your 8100+ roll. I think it is a good idea to take shots at bigger games (3/5 or 5/10) as long as you keep to strict bankroll management guidelines. If you go below a certain level, you must be willing to drop back down. Some people are not mentally tough enough to build up their rolls again by dropping down to a lower level (1/2). As long as you are mentally tough enough to do this, I so go for it.

    I tell all of my poker buddies to stay away from black jack, vbj, vp or any other table games. I had one friend that won 35,000 during the WSOP one year and lost all of it in one night of black jack. I had another buddy win 75,000 in a fantasy football contest. He was broke within 3 months from playing black jack. They both felt like black jack was more of a challenge to them than poker. Today they both have learned that they can't ever play black jack. I want you to do the same as them. Stay away from these sucker games. It will only do you good.

    I'm very impressed with how many positive changes you have made with your poker game and your life. I like the button straddle. I like showing the occasional bluff (don't overdo this one). I like playing looser compared to tight. Keep up the good work.

    ohcowboy12go

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  2. Tony,
    Any chance you can unblock me from twitter? I'm not sure why you blocked me in the first place.
    Thanks,
    ohcowboy12go

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    1. I dont know either, whats ur twitter id

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    2. its been taken care of now, no idea when i blocked u and what tweet i saw

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. This comment has not been removed by the author.....

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  4. We're pulling for you Tony. Don't let us down.

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  5. Despite all the warnings and all the advice, your conficence in your own ability and belief is outstanding.

    Koala

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  6. Dont forget the bet lightning made with a member of rtp three months ago id have $14,000 by christmas

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the link tony. His blog looks professional and well done. I read the first page and it is light years beyond your thoughts and planning. I'll have to give it a good read. You should too for value.

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  7. Speaking of good and bad decisions i made a few tonight. it was a GOOD decision to leave the Peppermill and rebuy $50 at the atlantis when i still had over $400 on the table, and had given back over $100 of a much bigger win. Paid $3 tip to cab driver on $5 fare and he still seemed pissed he went such a short distance. lost the $50 to a horrible river suckout, game was a good game, quite loose. rebought $60, lost it also and left, knowing id still be at $8206 and up decent for the night.

    but i walked by a VP machine, and put $100 in it (bad decision) and proceeded to win $122 on it. gave back some, and l left still ahead $85 on it. went back to the poker room, and sat, and game broke in 2 hands, with me only down $2.

    took the bus outta there, (its morning now) and i still have $8289, not bad for the night. its a new high since leaving vegas.

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  8. When is your next non-gambling day? Working every day is exhausting.

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  9. I agree there are sometimes benefits to straddling or showing bluffs, but I don't believe that benefit makes up for the cost of putting more money into the pot blind or giving away free information to your opponents. I know there are some good players out there that do these things, but I don't think that proves anything because there are also bad players that straddle and show bluffs, and good players that rarely or never do it.

    You may be able to play some house games at a slight advantage with a coupon, but I think it is reckless to bet such a large amount of your bankroll, especially when you are on tilt.

    If you look back at some of your worst days financially, they were huge downswings at house games, and were often fueled or made worse by tilt. I hope that you try to recognize when you are on tilt, and if you realize you are making bad decisions, stop before you damage your bankroll.

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  10. I think it's remarkable you are over $8000 when a year ago at the Suncoast you were close to having only $500 if I'm remembering correctly. Very nice!

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  11. Tony it is amazing that you are over 8K. I honestly never thought you would get above 5K again based on your basic/rudimentary poker skills. I just hope it will last, but we all know it will not, even you know it will not last.

    Tony what makes you think that bluffing and then showing your hand will put someone on tilt? That has NEVER once put me on tilt in my thousands of hours at the felt. In fact I love it when a donkey does that. They think they got one over on me, and they have my number, when in fact that gets filed away in my memory and I use that data point against them later on in play. It may be the very next hand or a year later. You should know better that It is always better to keep people questioning. Do not ever give someone a data point to understand your game at the felt.

    Does anyone have a link to this bet Lightning made with someone on RTP? I never heard of this but based on your description of the gambling abilities of Mr. Lightning it does sound like Lightning to make yet another losing bet.

    MIV

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  12. Good work Tony. Can yo also unblock me from twitter? westfred Thanks.

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  13. Tony,
    What is the highest your bankroll has ever been before?

    ohcowboy12go

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  14. Not sure what happening on your blog roll, but mine doesn't appear to be updating, although Rob's updates fine.

    mrben09.com

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    Replies
    1. Strange things happen with the updates. Some show up immediately and some don't seem to update for as long as 18 hrs.

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  15. Tony, i like the shorter hair on you. If you grow a nice mustache you would look very similar to Nikola Tesla. He was very distinguished looking. Many think he is a great thinker and good looking scientist.

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    1. id really rather ur friend Jenny find me good looking than u

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  16. UH OH! Long pause from TBC comments usually means HUGE VBJ sockroll BLAST-OFF!!

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    1. no it usually means im asleep or without net.

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    2. I hope to see you surpass 10k shortly. That better be your goal

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  17. new roll $8646. most of it has been due to lots of live table BJ wins this week, i keep playing cause ive got an edge both by counting cards and using the coupon, but i never seem to get a suited BJ to use my other coupon. and i guess im just lucky. never did get around to playing one of them $100 daily survivor tourneys at atlantis thru the end of the tourny series aug 24th. i just think $130 ($20 house $10 dealer) fees means if u win one time out of 8 (when only 1 in 10 get paid) u will still be behind $40, so the math sucks, and its unprofitable, would any tourny pros agree?

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  18. Based on 10 tournament your total cost would be $1300. A good tournament players should be able to cash once every four or five times. If you cash once every five times that would be giving you a profit of $700 over those 10 tournaments

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    Replies
    1. 1outof5?? lol!! The best MTT players on the planet only cash like 15 to 10%... Just lol

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    2. 1of5?? Loooool!! The best MTTers on tha planet cash about 15 to 10%.. Just lool at this

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  19. Depends on the size of the field of course. I am thinking 40 or 50 runners like the tournaments they play at the showboat or Taj in AC. a higher number of entrants on average and of course those percentages will be lower.

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