Friday, January 16, 2015

still making bad decisions (yesterday anyway) and a hand history.

 i just got bluffed off a hand at Delaware Park. it was against a guy id played with before. i had KJ of hearts and called his $13 blind steal of my BB. we both had $700+ in our stacks. flop came 233 with 2 hearts and i called $20. turn comes Kd. i bet $20, and he bets $65 and i called his raise. but it looked to the dealer like i was trying to check raise the way i was stacking my chips and he said i cant do that. i was actually still thinking about what to do. anyway the river came 10s and i checked. he bet $200 so i figured he must have AK and surely he knew i wasnt weak. but i felt like calling. would u? i didnt want to give back another large win. turned out he was on a total bluff, all he had was 7Q  i left the game with over $400 profit, but i feel i made a bad fold, i did feel like calling him, but i didnt want to give back a large win into a small win again. i needed a large win.

u see, the day before yesterday, we cracked the BBJ at de park. the mini that is, for $10,000 and my players share was $500. and i was also up over $500 in the game. but on the way to the door, while waiting for the host to come in at 8am for my $100 in free slot play, i lost over $850 on the good paying VBJ machines because i bet way too much being stuck. of course me overbetting on those machines was also the reason i won so much at the el cortez. i just had better luck at the elcortez is all. (and i left vegas because i knew it wouldnt continue).

there used to often be a host at 6am, but to keep people playing longer here lately there isnt one til 8am a bunch of times. and i was considering checking out of my room this morning and heading back to Parx or AC so i knew i wouldnt be able to get it later today if i didnt stay another day.

i even considered going to niagara falls. 9 hours + on the amtrak, so id got plenty of good sleep on the way and it was only $80, rather low for amtrak. its like $1100-1400 for a private sleeping car to places like reno or spokane all the way. of course, this wasnt for a sleeping car.

so to prevent dumb decisions, i figured i was better off not returning to de park. Even though the free $100 slot dollars promotions here are really good. plus im really sick of paying by the door in a hotel without a fridge. (those rooms cost quite a bit more). no nearby food outlets nearby this motel too except very expensive ones.

i do have $171 on Bovada though now, and a roll of still over $12,600 so im not much worse off than i left vegas with. about $500 worse off, and having spent over $4000 since coming here. still with $14+ hourly rate, for over 1200 total hours.

if i could just find someone i liked with a cheap enough price long term near a casino i like in a safe area, and convenient back and forth to get to, id like to get settled somewhere. am really getting tired of not having an address to just relax in without maids wanting in or having to renew all the time. everything is way more expensive than reno or vegas, so i cant find anything low priced enough id want to live there long term. and so many cities id like to go to arent places convenient to get to on a plane or train from wilmington. (phoenix, biloxi, pensacola, etc). and ray wont have his car available for long distances trips for at least 3 weeks.

also got 2 of my 4 books read too.

really worried about my eyes, and overall health. these reading glasses dont seem near strong enough

according to my cell, my overall profit at $1-2 and $1-3 NL since i started keeping track last april is $18000+. its possible my total winnnings are more due to VBJ wins at el cortez, or maybe theyre less due to other losses elsewhere. who knows?

33 comments:

  1. Just glad that your happy Tony. The decisions you make are obviously the right ones for the most part.

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  2. Glad you are on a bit of a rebound! Keep it up. I'd still suggest any further movement involve going south until spring time starts coming around. Doing the north east in Jan-March and then going to Florida in May-August is not a smart plan, as you are getting the worst of both.

    Keep winning!

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  3. Tony I can't help but wonder how much information you had previously given that guy from your table talk telling him outright you didn't want to give that much of your win back based on the previous day's events. I also can't help but wonder if this why you seem to have so much success the first few day's in a place and then seem to stall out.

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  4. so where's the roll at now Tony?

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  5. How's the tooth? Amazes me you still haven't gotten it fixed.

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  6. im at wilmington amtrak/metrorail station, taking the $6.50 septa into philly in 17 minutes. (amtrak is $57 now since not prepurchased so i wont use it). ill really be cutting it close in philly. ill have only 16 minutes to get from that area of the station to a different area of the station where u board the NJ train on the opposite side by amtrak. plus ill need a ticket ill guess ill just pay the extra $5 onboard the train to save time. i hope it dont get in late. if i dont make the 142pm the next one isnt til 442pm.

    interestingly enough i passed a cheap chinatown bus to NYC from wilmington a lot of people were boarding while walking 5 blocks to here from the busstop. turned down the idea of boarding it.

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  7. so for a total of $10+5 and $6.50 and $1.50, i should be arriving in AC NJ before 3.30

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  8. Tony where will you be dining this evening

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  9. Worried about your eyes. Worried about your teeth. Most people with your IQ would seek professional help, ie eye doctor and dentist. Do you just have a death wish??

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  10. Happy Martin Luther King Day, Tony! I

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  11. man is it great to both be home tonight, AND to have working wifi in the room tonight unlike last nite. i was originally wanting to cancel the next 2 nights of my reserv and to try to start earning free nites at the casino (or go out whitehorse pike). Last night the room worked not at all. not only that, the manager was nice enough to deliver a fridge today while i was out playing poker today and i just noticed it. too late though, the milk, and bologna and orange juice i threw out this morning, about $8 worth of food down the ddrain. ive nothing to put in the fridge now and only have 1 more day paid. this room cost too much to keep. $185 is what i paid on Priceline for 3 nites plus taxes and fees. ive got to stop taking classier rooms.

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  12. took the jitney home from the golden nugget after busting out of $80 tourny, out $660 for the day. met evildavejr from RTP. also a guy whose a friend of will romaine. played both $1-2 NL at ballys and $10-20 omaha8 stud8 mix at ballys and lost at every game i played, even though i once cracked a guys aa and won about $300 off that hand.

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    1. Hey tony it's will's friend brad from the Nugget. You gonna be in AC for awhile? Good luck

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    2. Unsure. Remember the stake u offered yrs ago?

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  13. Replies
    1. One called Finders fee one called strait of hormuz one called harbinger and i forgot the other title

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  14. Tony would you have called that raise with the King Jack it was not suited? TJ Cloutier himself said if you wouldn't play a hand unsuited why would you play it suited when the fact the hand is suited only increases its value by 3 percent.

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    1. KJs is perfectly fine to defend blind against a steal. The problem is how poorly Tony played post flop. On the turn, he had a good show down hand. Donk betting the turn is pretty awful, what exactly were you trying to accomplish with that bet? Just check call the whole way against an aggressive opponent.

      As usual, Tony has played with villain before, but he gives zero indication of villain's style and tendency.

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    2. Flushhdraw, I have seen that 3% figure referenced before, but I think it is somewhat misleading. The additional 3% refers to an all in situation preflop, which is almost never the case in a cash game with a hand like KJ. KJs gives you the chance to flop some very strong combo draws that KJo won't. In real life cash game, I think KJs is worth much more than 3% in terms of playability in blind defense.

      Of course, if one plays poorly post flop, then it could work against you like Tony here.

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    3. I have seen the 3% referenced before, but it is misleading because it came from winning % in an all in preflop scenario, which almost never happens in a cash game with this hand. The additional value comes from the ability to flop some powerful combo draws which KJo can't. It is hard to quantify the exact increase in playability, but personally I would say >10% in a blind defense situation.

      Of course, if one plays poorly post flop, it could end up worse than an unsuited hand.

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    4. I would add, Tony shouldn't beat himself up for getting bluffed on that hand; it's rare to have someone firing 4 times with air in a 1/2 game. You would lose much more making that call then folding. Remember, Tony, if you're not folding winning hands on occasion, you're playing calling station poker. Unless you have a very big read on that person, it's an easy fold.

      s.i.

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    5. Right, when deep the 3% number is largely irrelevant. The additional draws you pick up bring in additional semi-bluffs.

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    6. Pokerdogg, you say KJs has powerful combo draws and when you say that I am assuming you mean the possibility of not only the flush draw but the straight draw as well. My question would be the 3% and increased value as we know to be standard now I understand King jack suited can offer the potential of the straight draw and the flush draw simutaniously but considering the odds of flopping a flush draw is 8-1 are you speaking of draws that can turn from a backdoor to a full fledged draw on the turn to go along with a possible flopped straight draw or even a top pair decent kicker on the flop with a backdoor added.

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    7. Yes, I was referring to combo draws like flush + straight draws, or pair + flush draws. Backdoor flush draw adds a little bit of value, but not much.

      Keep in mind we are talking about defending the blind, as Tony mentioned in this particular hand. As usual, we the readers are left to fill in the blanks, but I am assuming this is a late position raise by someone who would frequently raise in that spot, and I assumed we are playing heads up since Tony defended from the BB. Based on these assumptions, KJs is a perfectly good hand to defend with, and is ahead of villain's raising range.

      The 3% additional advantage for suited hand is often quoted, but is usually misused. This number is based on allin preflop, which is useful when analysing hand versus hand ranges in short stack tournament situations, but has very little meaning when applied to normal cash game play.

      I am much more inclined to play with KJs than KJo in this situation, because the extra 12% of the time I flop a flush draw will allow me to play aggressively against a steal. Playing aggressively with a flush draw (sometimes), also adds deception to the times you play aggressively with a strong made hand.

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    8. S.I., while it is true Tony shouldn't beat himself on getting bluffed sometimes, in this particular hand he set himself up for the bluff. Tony could have check raised the flop, he could have check called the whole way, he could have made a stronger turn bet. BUT, he chose to bet $20 into a $66 pot. This is the kind of bet I may make to induce a bluff, not to let someone raise me off my hand. Seriously, he played this hand post flop about as bad as he could have done it.

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    9. I agree with S.I. if a player fires 4 times with air its usually a bad case of flatulence.

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    10. I used Equilab to run some numbers. With what I considered a normal stealing range, KJo is a 53/47 dog. If suited, the hands are almost 50/50, so I guess I agree with the 3% thing. Your mileage may vary, depending on the range you put the villain.

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    11. Memphis MONO, first of all congrats on your great run in this year's Seniors WOOP event.

      I think we all agreed on the 3% figure, the contention was whether this figure is applicable to cash game play with reasonably deep stacks. IMHO, the 3% figure is not applicable.

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    12. P-dogg:

      I agree that the hand seems misplayed. It can be a little hard to tell, as Tony doesn't give much info (I'm still not sure what the whole "I called but the dealer thought I was check raising, but I hadn't yet decided what to do..." thing means), but it doesn't seem like Tony had a plan for how he would play when he bet out on the turn, or why he donk bet to begin with; he was chasing out lesser hands and didn't seem to be trying to induce. So, I agree it seems to be simply a bet without a plan.

      The larger point I was trying to make was that people are rarely going to be trying to fire 4 times without better than TPMK. Tony didn't indicate he had any read on the guy, so I think it's an easy fold, as played.

      s.i.

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  15. Tony, I have not played at Bally's "Billys" poker room in close to a year. But prior to that I would play there approx. 3-4 times a year. Won a tournament there once, chopped with just one other player. I remember seeing the same 2 guys at the 1-2 table every time I was there, months and years apart. They are uncanny cash players. I played little with them, never could win a pot from them.

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    1. im of the opinion far bigger sized degenerates continue to play here instead of elsewhere, so i assume it must make for better games. (more tendency to tilt etc)

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  16. I'm pretty sure you're the only person who uses the term "cracked" to describe "winning" a BBJ.

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