Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Trip report of todays poker session in a much different area of the country than the northeast coast.

I have never seen so many scary looking motels all up and down the streets of 2 major roads going opposite directions in a major city, and surprisingly the bus service is quite good, at least during the week. From my hotel, i should be able to get to many of the different cardrooms on the bus, and also to a walmarts and a major cheaper grocery store. but im paying way too much. i couldnt get a discount i expected to get so instead im paying $378 a week

and talk of sketchy neighberhoods and players, i sure wish i had a friend in this area with a car that i both knew and trusted and would feel safe going home with. I was joking about WEC picking me up, and then dropping out of sight a day or two. But something really couldve happened to me tonight at the bus stop. This cardroom is on the upper floor of a very old looking building, far off from the main north south road the bus travels on. Plus its all fenced off. there was never more than like 3 games going, even though they have plenty of tables.

Minimum buyin in the $1-2 blinds NL game is only $20, and the max buyin is $200. theres also a $1-3 game, and on rare occasions PLO with much higher min buyins of $200. they do rake 50c chips. But the players are really really bad, and lot of them look like exconvicts, gang members or dope dealers. i sat there about 10 hours, and turned my $40 buyin into $395. so its easy picking in this cardroom, probably a lot more so than the one most of the people living in this area go to. I just need a friend with a car so i can play there everyday. Was going to try to find a walmart enroute to my expensive hotel, but never did.

after researching google online however at least i know where i can find it in the future, and also which one is 24 hours and which one is NOT. For i wont be leaving the area for at least a month, even if i was to get banned at one of the casinos.

Rob's poker atlas phone application has came in quite handy in researching rooms and games in this area too. Also some of the people on 2+2 thats claiming this city is no longer worth moving to to play poker are also of the wrong opinion--at least from my initial impressions so far. its just it costs too much to live here if u cant rent an apt, some ads on craigslist dont really exist so they should quit running the ads, but the games are loose. i seriously wish i had the $19k roll still. then i could easily afford all the upfront expenses in getting settled in. im at $11,500 only, even after todays $300+ win. i paid way too much on plane fares, housing, (almost $1000 including cabs etc) and the big loss at ballys, Taj, etc.

i made up the comment in the old blog too about there being a $225 PLO tourny today. i only did that to throw people off to where i was traveling, along with the hotel being on west 123rd. that also isnt the case. im sure this cardroom has never ever had a tourny that high.

81 comments:

  1. How did you come up with the 123 street number? Did you ever consider using 456?

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  2. How were you playing and staying at Bally's? I thought you were BANNED from ALL Caesars' properties.

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  3. If you weren't such a lying asshole, and told people the truth and where you are, then you might meet up with people who live in the same area who are willing to help you out. But I will never again be one of those people.

    I cannot believe that I was so wrong about you, during all the times I tried to help you. You are a liar, conman, thief, loser, selfish, unreliable, self centered, egotistical, dishonest, unhygienic, dirty, gambling addict. And that is some of the better points about you.

    To carry on like a spoilt brat and spit out your pacifier when beaten in a poker hand is completely unacceptable. To rip up the cards, abuse the other players and staff, at a table, then run out the door like a naughty boy before security catches up with you is absolute proof that you are mentally unstable, and it is only a matter of time before you are taken into a back room somewhere and given the hiding of your miserable life.

    Tony, I am so done with you, that if I should ever make it back to the USA, I will never ever go out of my way to see you again. You scare the shit our of me with your violent outbursts, because someday you will do it and someone will react and blow your stupid fucking head off. I do not want to be in the firing line when that happens. You are not worth trying to save, protect or help.

    Koala.

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    1. Koala- tell us how you really feel? lol

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  4. Your paronia is at an all time high. What is going to happen if your faithful readers know where you are screaming obscenities at players and getting the next black ball?

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  5. Whoever said the lock bet was Tony was going to Tampa was correct. I didn't know until he emailed me tonight that he was at Hard Rock Tampa.

    Of course he ignored the advice I have gave him for a few years about the 2 nearby to hard rock hotels he should check out and instead found one far away so he can try all the poker rooms.

    There are only 4 poker rooms in the Tampa / St. Pete area and they are all spread apart quit a bit so busing to those others will be a challenge and he will quickly find out that hard rock is the best place to play.The other 3 besides Hard Rock are tracks. 1 being Lucky's is the crappiest and the most dangerous area and of course that is the one Tony likes the best so far and they have a $20 min buy on their 1/2nl game there lol. People sit with $20-$30 and shove there good hands and hit the ATM when they lose. Yay.

    He has already scoped out the VBJ situation at HR and of course they shuffle every hand here. I am guessing the Indians won't have any of them good machines but there is 5000 of them so I am sure Tony will find something to his liking if he needs to.

    I am also predicting that when the time comes that he is stuck and on tilt at HR that he gets in the 5/5PLO game that runs most days, sometimes 2 tables. Maybe he will crush it who knows.

    This is my 1st time ever meeting Tony he played at the table next to mine. Many of the observations of others encounters with Tony ring true and make sense now.
    Apparently he plans to stay for awhile so we will see how that works.

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    1. well in my opinion, what makes winning easier at the track, is NONE of the pros like me and u grinding out a living are playing there. (i could be wrong). but anyway once i made it home, was still up $250 for the day after buying $15 worth of food. will have to go to walmart tomorrow. id never play the 5/5 plo without a much bigger roll, its way too high. if i was on tilt and stuck enough id either play $2-5 $200-1000 buyin or the VBJ, though its not beatable long term and shuffles every hand its still over 99% payback which isnt too bad. it does give comps at least. wheres the nearest $1-2 PLO game at?

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    2. question 1. if u had just arrived in tampa in the same boat as me, no other income, no car, and no rent prepaid for a while upfront, how much do u think $11,800 would be if u had exactly that within 6 months? down to much less or up to over $20k? and what game would u play?

      question 2. why do u think my $14 an hour winrate is so much better than what most of my readers think my hourly rate should be from reading my hand histories?

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    3. he did assist with a big favor tonight he didnt have to do as far as researching other motels prices, and finding out some info.

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    4. Lucky's used to have PLO all the time and most of the action in town(I have not been there in years and don't play PLO) just going by what I hear.

      They may have moved the game to HR and that is why there is often 2 games going at HR. Maybe there is still some 1/2plo at lucky's, I don' t know.

      I don't understand Q1.
      How many hours tracked is $14/hr and how accurate was the tracking.
      Maybe you tilted off some money and didn't feel like adding that in.

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    5. luckys had a list for $1-2 PLO. i didnt play because i didnt like the $200 min instead of $100, ud think it would be lower there if anywhere. its lower in reno and the V when it goes. anyway, they got 5 names then the players drifted off and it never went. (luckys).

      thats for about 1350 hours of play, and its a mixture of nothing but $1-2 NL and $1-3 NL outside of california. all sessions were tracked, or added in the next day. no wins or losses in any other games were factored in, such as PLO, stud, etc.

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    6. it also wasnt necessary to buyin deep to win here in florida. at the dogtrack i turned $40 into $395. at the HR i turned $60 into $335

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    7. BTW you can check the games that are going at Derby here:
      http://www.derbylanepoker.com/waiting-list.aspx

      And Silks(horse track) on Bravo.

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    8. ive been using Robs Poker Atlas app to check live games at Derby Lane

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    9. Tony says..."it also wasnt necessary to buyin deep to win here in florida. at the dogtrack i turned $40 into $395. at the HR i turned $60 into $335"

      Wow, a sample size of 2, makes it indisputable in Tony's mind.

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    10. Answer 1: $35800

      Assumptions: $3000/month expenses, winrate of $30/hr for 1/3NLHE and $40/hr for 2/5NLHE, working 200 hours/month, and not other gambling. month 1 to 3 playing 1/3, then move up to 2/5 for month 4-6

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    11. Answer 2: I had posted a couple of years ago, I figured your win rate is between $5 to $10/hr playing 1/2NLHE. There are several problems with your $14/hr figure. It includes 1/3 and 1/2, which will inflate the win rate. It also includes some of the jackpot wins which shouldn't be part of winrate calculation. Finally, 1300 hours is a good sample size, but there is still a fair bit of uncertainty. Let's see what it looks like after 5000 hours.

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    12. but what if ur casino dont offer $1-3 NL and only $1-2 NL and $2-5 NL? (it also offers $1-1 NL same as ballys, but ive never included my $1-1 NL results).

      will see if theres a way to look up results on the phone for $1-3 only and then $1-2 only, maybe the filters will do this. im sure $1-2 has a highly hourly than $1-3 though, players are worse and i play more comfortably at those stakes. all of the tampa play was at $1-2.

      hows jackpot wins any different than getting paid back $100 of ur loss on aa cracked promotions, which of course is part of ur chip stack when cashing out?

      anyway i think i underestimated my hourly rate. u see, i didnt include the delaware slot vouchers, and if those winnings had been included my hourly rate would be approximately $1000-2000 higher, (about $1 hour more over the 1300+ hours total).

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    13. Reno dont have $1-3 NL just $1-2. so i know all of the reno play was $1-2 and that would increase my hourly. id guess about 95% of the play was at $1-2

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    14. OK Pokerdogg, i did some investigating on my phone seems there IS a way to look thru my filters and just see my $1-2 winrate ONLY and my $1-3 winrate only, but before i can, i must first purchase the program for $4.99 thru google that activates the filter.

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    15. LOL, if u include the slot vouchers, then u would have over estimated your win rate even more than it is now. For aces cracked where they just add to your chip stack, it is trickier, but I would just subtract the bonus from the session result before entering it into record. I would track all bonus wins separately.

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    16. You said in the blog post, this room offers 1/3. So does it, or doesn't it?

      And for God's sake, pay the $4.99

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    17. luckys offers $1-3. not the tampa hardrock. i hate to spend $5 on something i dont have to, ive got far more important things i need to save up a few thousand for. no reason to track bonuses seperately its all part of the things u take into consideration when calling bets, same as if its money in the pot.

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    18. Well Tony, play at Luckys and Derby then, it is really not that complicated.

      LOL at not wanting to spend $5 on the program. You can't even separate your win rates by stakes, you need it, at least you need it enough to pay $5. On the other hand, you don't need to spend hundreds/thousands of dollars playing VBJ with terrible payout.

      You need to track bonuses separately because you need to figure out how good the game is, apart from how good the promo is. You can always add the numbers together to figure out the total earnings.

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  6. I'm glad the PokerAtlas app is working out for you.

    But seriously, Tony, how can you call this a "trip report" when you don't tell us where the trip is to....or the name of the poker room you are reviewing?

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    1. the trip was to Tampa. (not my first choice, vegas or orlando were my first choices, but those planes that were both $200 less each got canceled). the poker room mentioned in this blog is called Luckys.

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    2. i also got charged $35 MORE for not booking it online and to fix it so i couldnt book online the last minute, they didnt tell me about this $35 charge til after theyd already charged me, or i couldve done it online right there.

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    3. Orlando doesn't have poker rooms. Why would this be one of your choices?

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  7. (it also offers $1-1 NL same as ballys, but ive never included my $1-1 NL results).

    When do you play at Bally's? You said you were BANNED from those casinos.

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  8. Poker atlas is just an estimate of what normally goes or what might be going at any time. The link I gave is Live like bravo.

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    1. @WSOP2007:

      Tony is right. Through PokerAtlas's Table Captain software, life, real time updates about cash games are available on our website and our app from some poker rooms, and we will be adding more poker rooms as time goes on. Derby is one of them, you can see it on our app or check out the link here:

      http://www.pokeratlas.com/poker-room/derby-lane-st-petersburg/cash-games

      This is real time up to date info.

      More info about TableCaptain can be found here:

      http://www.pokeratlas.com/table-talk/announcements/check-it-out-the-pokeratlas-tablecaptain-system

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  9. Tampa Bay Downs horsetrack is just a couple of miles from where I used to live from 1987 to 1990. That being Oldsmar. There is now an ice skating complex across from the Gardens of Forest Lake condos that I used to live at. The Winn Dixie closed down when Walmarts opened up. There might be cheap rentals in Oldsmar but other than the Silk poker room you are far away from EVERYTHING.

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    1. yeah the only way to get out of there after 5.50pm and until 813 am is by using UBER

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    2. Why did you capitalize that word?

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  10. Tony:

    Why do you lie about where you're going? Is it because you feel people would warn you against going? Or is it that you think if you said you were going to Miami, someone would fly down there and hunt you?

    I don't get it. Help me understand.

    thanks,

    s.i.

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    1. Yes, he voiced his concerns to me about being worried about getting robbed, his hotel room broken into, being followed, etc. if people knew where he was staying.

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    2. Tony's safety paranoia knows no bounds. As far as I know, he hasn't been the victim of any violence for about twenty years, yet is scared of his own shadow.

      Of course, the real interesting thing is that he fears people who appear to be relatively harmless, yet brags to AC hookers about how much money he has and broadcasts on his blog where and when he is going to an ATM.

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    3. well when going to a new area, i never know what unknown enemies i might have there

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    4. "well when going to a new area, i never know what unknown enemies i might have there"

      What difference does it make? Five minutes after you arrive, you have told everyone about your life, where you have just come from, how much you have in your sock roll, how good you are at poker, and that you have a blogg which gives anyone all the information they need to rob you. Just a matter of time to see if its a hooker or her pimp that gets you.

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  11. You're staying near the Tampa greyhound track and you're surprised the hotels are so sketchy? Dude that is the hooker heaven area of tampa. I assume you're playing there and at the Hard Rock and neither are in areas anyone considers very nice. Good luck and don't get banned or worse (the area around Luckys is too scary for my blood especially after dark)

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  12. For someone who is so paranoid you sure don't seem to mind picking up hookers. That is one of the easiest ways to get robbed or beaten.

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    1. ive not picked up ANY hookers since about 3 weeks before i took the $800 cab ride, and that was many years ago. i talk about wanting a woman to hang out with, but i cant ever bring myself to turn loose of the money required because i dont feel like i can afford it when ive more important expenses looming up soon

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    2. Wanting to have a woman is perfectly understandable, but trying to find love through Usasexguide doesn't make much sense.

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  13. Hello? Is this thing on? U see, u don't understand the path to true wuv. If you did, it would make complete sense how TBC is going about I his search.

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    1. Pretty sure that I can't help you. In L.A. to sign some documents then back to Reno-Tahoe for a spell.

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  14. i am of the opinion the quality of the food at Aldis isnt as good as i remember when i was a kid. yes its still cheaper in cost, but dont buy produce there. i bit into a rotten apple, and their cheap wheat bread isnt nearly strong enough, its quite flimsy. also theres not much of a selection. Great for buying things like canned soups, etc though

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    1. I hope you are not trying to build a shelter with wheat.bread.

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  15. I learned something today because of Tony. I had not heard of Aldi before (God knows why TBC must add an 's' to markets lol) so I had to look them up. I generally follow business closely and was surprised to learn that Aldi is similar to the Walmart of Germany. What I was really dumbfounded to learn is that it is the owner of Trader Joe's which I have shopped at for years.

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    1. The U.S. Aldi chain and Trader Joe's are not related. There are two Aldi companies in Germany, Aldi North and Aldi South, which were founded when two brothers no longer wanted to be in business with each other. One of them owns the US Aldi stores. The other owns Trader Joe's.

      And hey, didja know that I write a blog about Trader Joe's food? See exploringtraderjoes.blogspot.com.

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  16. Was reading a thread about another famous online and live poker player and saw this picture of him and his girl who I think likes to watch behind him and rub his back while he plays. Tony, is this your ultimate dream? Or do 'these' type of women turn you off? Have you ever had sex with a hot woman (even paid)? Is any sex good sex?

    http://www.pokerupdate.com/assets/Managed/NewsArticles/070813-pic02-3.jpg

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    1. the girl im interested in there i couldnt take a picture of, my phone is frozen up on the camera saying unable to record video and i cant get it off to where its just a normal picture. neither could another person who looked at my phone. i think her name was nadia, she kept playing and rebuying at my $1-1 table and seemed to know a few dealers. i did loan her my charger for a couple hours. i eventually left at 5.42am up $123 in that game.

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    2. Why the hell were you playing 1/1nl with all the $50 stacks? Can't you play 1/2nl and buy in for $300 like any other pro would do?

      What happened at silks, you must have lost if no report?

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    3. Typing in this tone makes u seem like a troll instead of being out for my best interests, and then id be less inclined to listen because id not be sure if u were advising me right. u need to have faith in my decisions.

      of course i won at silks, a total of $81 off my $60 buyin. cashed out $141. ive had zero losing sessions in FL, and $0 buyins of more than $60.

      the reason other pros buyin $300 is they have no concept of bankroll management or else they are insanely overbankrolled. i cant afford to until my roll is $30k if i follow proper money management. u need 100 buyins. i can buyin more than $40-60 but why risk it? a big loss puts me on tilt, so why risk buying in $300 if im not stuck and needing a big win? this actually protects my emotional state of mind and helps me play better.

      if my expenses werent insanely high for rent, id be more inclined to think oh well 50 buyins is plenty ill just buy in $200 and pray for the best. but i cant relax til i find a nice safe apt on a safe busline for under $800 a month convenient back and forth to the casino

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    4. i made $123 in the game, so dont see how thats the wrong decision.

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    5. Where did you get the idea you need 100 buyins for low stakes NLHE? If you bought in more, you would have made more most likely.

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    6. Also poker is a long term game of course and just because you won $123 playing 1/1nl doesn't you are better off playing that than 1/2nl in the long run or even for that night for that matter.

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  17. I am not trolling just can't believe you are easily rolled for $300 buy ins at 1/2nl and you want to play 1/1nl or only buy in for $60 at 1/2nl.

    You do not need 100 buy ins. lol Where did you here that? 30 buy ins with 3-6 months bills is plenty which is 9k plus the rest for bills. I don't remember what you said your BR was now over 12k right?

    It doesn't matter anyway I guess since you don't stick to just poker anyway and you will have wild swings on the machines so you can't really calculate proper poker BR when you are using money for big swings on machines.

    They are doing $100 gas cards again for February starting Monday. Every 25 hours gets $100 shell gas card, hours Monday thru Thurs count all month. Weekends are High hands every half hour.

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    Replies
    1. Tony has this right. 100 buy ins is and always has been totally standard although I agree Tony's case is different. His must run now travel expenses make it necessary to play 1-3 max buy in just to break even. Actually I'm surprised he can even do that at 1-3 but he does post some pretty nice wins at that level.

      Tony you can't afford to blow through money on get me outta here now airfare and hotels and keep this 100 buy in mentality. One or the other has to go. Settle some place with lower housing costs and cut out the plane rides or open it up and play higher to cover it.

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    2. I agree with most of what he says. I often play too small afraid of a big loss making me tilt so i sit in games u cant beat the rake as easy

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    3. 100 buyins is standard for multi-table tournaments, but I have never seen it used for no limit cash games. 30 buy buyins is fairly commonly used as a guideline for no limit holdem cash games, but there is a formula that you can use to calculate the number buyins required. The formula requires hourly win rate, standard deviation, and the acceptable risk of ruin as input. I have made reference to that formula and done some same calculations before. Tony, do you remember the couple of times I have provide link for you to those calculations?

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    4. I found some of the numbers I reposted on RTP, which was original posted in AllVegasPoker along with the formula I used. Clearly you don't need 100 buyins if you have a $14/hr win rate at 1/2nl.

      Data as of Feb. 19, 2010:

      win rate: $20.35/hour
      std dev: $165.19


      Risk of ruins -------- BR req (1/2NL)
      5% .................... $2000
      1% .................... $3074
      0.1% ................. $4611


      Then I did some sensitivity analysis by varying the winrate, but using the same std. deviation and using risk of ruin at 5%

      Win Rate ..... BR req (1/2NL) where ROR = 5%

      $20.35 .............. $2000
      $10 ................. $4325
      $5 ................... $8771
      $2 ................... $22013

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    5. You want to strive for .5% if you play for a living and also need to have 3-6 months expenses on the side from that. Since I don't trust his tracking lets just go with $10/hr and use your $165 std.

      That would be $7212 + the living expenses but none of that matters anyway since any given time he could drop $1000 or more from that roll on machines and plane, trains and $800 cabs.

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    6. According to my numbers above, Tony only needs $4325 BR for 1/2, if he has a $10/hr win rate.

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    7. are pokerdoggs figures for $100 buyins or for $300 buyins? clearly anyone could run bad and lose 5-10 times in a row, although it dont happen often it will at least once a year, so clearly $3000 isnt enough. 10 buyins of 300. he must be talking about shortstacking

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    8. how do you exactly calculate this or is there some software that you use? Very interested in knowing more about this.

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    9. All calculations are based on 100 BB buyins.

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    10. Pokerdogg you are doing 5%. Someone playing for a living needs to be at
      .5% (half of 1%) Risk of Ruin.

      The figures assume you are not taking any money out of bankroll ever for anything except poker, not bills or anything. That is why you would need several months of bill money on the side.

      Some important I found a few years ago when running these numbers is, if you are taking bill money out of BR then your hourly goes way down to reflect before calculating Risk of Ruin.

      Example:
      lets say Tony plays 160 hours of poker a month and makes $14/hr like he says, that is $2240. Now lets say his bills average $2000 and he takes that out of BR money. So now he only made $240 for the month(for purposes of ROR calculation) divided by 160 hours and he made only $1.50/hr. now when you run the calculation you see how bad of shape he is in.

      .5% would need 48k BR
      1% would need 41,800 BR
      2% would need 35,500 BR
      and 5% ROR would need 27k BR

      So if you are taking bill money out of your winning like most would the key is how much extra over your bills you pocket each month because anything close to barely making it will end in disaster.

      For example those numbers with only $12,580 BR has 25% chance of going busto and $6300 would have 50% chance of busto.

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    11. BTW this is the site I use:
      http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poker-games/general/bankroll-requirements.html

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    12. Ah, I didn't see the decimal place in your original post. Makes sense, the only thing I would disagree with is how much risk of ruin Tony should accept. I think 5% is perfectly acceptable, what is the worst thing that can happen? He would still be way better off than he was a year or so ago, living in a paper box.

      His biggest risk of ruin is his way out of wack travel and hotel expenses.

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  18. Rolls under $12,000. Wish it was over that. Three to six months bills is about $7500 to $15,000. So essentially my roll is $0 if i need to include that in the roll. Certainly explains why i need cheaper housing and fear losing any money at all. Even two or three $300 drops in a row is devastating to my long term success. Explains why i dont see a dentist yet too

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    1. You know what is devastating to your long term success? Your inability to control yourself and behave properly. You get banned wherever you go. I know of no other poker player that is banned from as many rooms as you have.

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  19. Over $2000 a month is insane. If you stayed walking distance from casino then you wouldn't have all the cab, uber, and bus expenses.

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  20. Tony has a paltry 12 dollar an hour win rate,doesn't track poker games he loses in or casino losses and somehow thinks he has enough money to waste on cabs hotels and plane tickets traveling to play poker.

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  21. Actually, to be more accurate the calculation doesn't care about the size of buyins. The size of your buy in will affect your win rate AND standard variation, which is 2 of the 3 input for the formula. The data presented above, was based on my standard deviation and win rate, which is based on $200 buyins for a 1/2 game. Makes sense?

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    1. Oops, don't know why this post ended up down here instead of under the BR discussion above.

      Here is the link to thread on AVP where I did the calculations (page 4).

      http://www.pokeratlas.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=75&t=12783&hilit=sensitivity&sid=e8000436e8594325707a0e2bf8b80547

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  22. Lmao guess the bankroll calculator does not work for us online microstake people. That craziness just told me i only need a 30 cent bankroll for grinding my $4NL games lol

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