Friday, June 12, 2015

Hyatt Incline poker room

i dont understand why im having so much good luck on this VBJ machine (up over $700 on it since arriving in Crystal Bay). maybe its just my style of betting, (and that i havent taken the big loss yet). I also dont understand why my hourly rate at poker keeps getting smaller and smaller. after tonights $193 loss at the $1-2, my new hourly is at its lowest point ever, ($13.37 per hour). it keeps getting closer and closer to falling under $13, from when it was always around $14-15. now thats averaging in over 2100 hours of play, so its probably actually negative if it keeps dropping (for just the last few weeks only). one thing that might be hurting me is ive seen almost NO quads or bonus hand payouts in a while.

Players in Reno might just be getting better at poker, (or more likely, better adjusting to my style of play). i worry my style of play is dying out and id like to learn how to beat the LAG style. What i really want is to find LAG players who will study and analyze my play 1 on 1 with me (after sitting in my game a few hours) and instead of targeting me specifically (which is unethical instead of targeting the table as a whole) be a friend out for my best interests and teach me what im doing wrong and to show me how to improve to where people like them can no longer take advantage of me.

u see thats how u learn. you dont learn by reading books, forums, or watching videos. u learn from 1 on 1 instruction in person with other good players. Players like stealthmunk, The Trooper, Grump, Pokerdogg, Rebecca, Vook, etc.

and tonights session was a bit frustrating and i took a few notes to remind me of certain hands. so while i sit here and play my $5 quadruple up MTT on Bovada with my $60 there, im going to go look at the notes section on my phone. I'm also cleaning out my microwave dish so i can cook some food. brought about a weeks supply of groceries with me from home, including plenty of detergent.

several things were happening in that poker room tonight that were really grating on my nerves. both hands i played well and lost, hands i wouldve won, and hands where i didnt lose nearly as much as i was supposed to lose. Hands i was expecting to win, (and didnt). $193 is the most ive ever lost in the Hyatt, due to few sessions being played there, and a max buyin of only $200. and at the first of July, thats when it will start being open 7 days a week.

so lets disect these hands 1 by 1. first one to discuss, i had 35 offsuit in my unraised BB. as usual, this room gets a lot of limpers and callers. lots of very rich people live in this area. Flop comes up 724 rainbow and i check my open ender. guy bets  $15, another guy bets $30, and theres only $10 in $2 antes in the pot. so i decide im definitely not getting the right odds and lay it down. guy who bet the $15 decides to call the $30. (with what happened to be KT offsuit) see what i mean by a lot of donkeys in this room? turn comes K and he bets again, other guy calls. river comes A and it goes check check and i wouldve had the stone cold nuts. but of course the right play is to fold for $30 on the flop.

and i lost my initial $120 standard buyin rather quickly and rebought $145 since i had only $17 left. i had KJ suited, and probably shouldve raised preflop instead of limped, but i dont like raising with it without being in late position. flop comes up JT6 rainbow and i bet $10 and get one caller. turn comes 7 putting out a possible flush draw. he checks, and again i bet $20 he calls. river comes 5, total blank. he shoves allin. (what would u do here?) i have no idea if he is a bluffer, and i call. (mightve been a donkey move, but thats never stopped me from doing it before). he has the nut straight with 89. and again i felt like he played it poorly.

By poorly i mean he will get my money a lot more often if he raises the turn instead, because if i wouldve been on a flush draw instead of top pair, i couldve folded the river. (so hes taking maybe a 25% chance this couldve been my hand--although it wasnt). anyone care to guess what thoughts were going thru his mind? (as far as how to get value)

and another thing, how do u play against a player trying to obtain 1st place in every satellite format tourny format when he dont need to do nothing but sit and wait it out with his chip count? you see, i busted out of my tourny on Bovada few minutes ago. 17 of us were left and 10 were getting paid a flat amount of $20 for our $5 buyin. and this one guy was involved in about 80% of the pots preflop and didnt need to be. i was slowly whittling down and when he just limped his SB vs my BB i was down to like 8 BB and shoved to take a stand, since id been waiting to shove mostly any 2 for some time and couldnt due to someone else always raising in front of me. (and all my hands being too weak to play once someone else entered the pot). turns out he had AA (my hand dont matter in that spot--im supposed to shove) and i was out. my actual hand was Q4 offsuit.

and the worst one of all was when i had the AT offsuit at the Hyatt, and the flop came 357 all in spades and i had the ace of spades. i bet $10 and one guy calls. turn comes Ts giving me a pair and the nut flush. again i bet $10, hoping for a raise and that he hit the flush. he calls. river comes 3 which scares me cause im wondering if hes drawing for the boat. i bet only $10 (originally id planned to bet more if nothing hits) and sure enough he bets $25. i only call, fearing a boat and it turned out he flopped the straight flush and missed a ton of value slow playing it. guy is a regular at the Horseshoe pokerroom in Memphis it turned out.

by that time i was thoroughly fed up with getting beat by those not extracting the correct value for their hands.




37 comments:

  1. please dont overlook yesterdays post the day before this one. it was up only a short time and had only 325 views so far since it hasnt been up even 24 hours yet. make sure u dont think this is the only new post.

    ReplyDelete
  2. LAGs have to be excellent hand readers. By splitting your opening range between limping and raising you make it much easier for them to crush you. There are plenty of free videos on how to beat LAGs. In the absence of unpaid one-on-one coaching by the good players you mention above, why not watch a few? Incidentally, Vegas is full of LAGs and will be for the foreseeable future.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Tony:

    Lets discuss this hand:

    "and i lost my initial $120 standard buyin rather quickly and rebought $145 since i had only $17 left. i had KJ suited, and probably shouldve raised preflop instead of limped, but i dont like raising with it without being in late position. flop comes up JT6 rainbow and i bet $10 and get one caller. turn comes 7 putting out a possible flush draw. he checks, and again i bet $20 he calls. river comes 5, total blank. he shoves allin. (what would u do here?) i have no idea if he is a bluffer, and i call. (mightve been a donkey move, but thats never stopped me from doing it before). he has the nut straight with 89. and again i felt like he played it poorly."

    What percentage of hands, at 1/3 NLHE, play out as "float", "float", check/shove, and NOT have it be a strong hand? In my experience, at the 1/2 or 1/3 level, that play is made VERY rarely on missed draws. I would imagine 80+% of the time, that play is made with very strong holdings. You apparently didn't have any read on him ("I have no idea if he's a bluffer") and yet you seemed to think that he was bluffing.

    In your experience, what percentage of the time is that play generally made as a bluff? I think you overestimate, by a significant amount, the bluff-shove range of your opponents. You should be calling very rarely in that spot. In fact, you should be praying for some fool to overvalue their TPGK hands and paying you off in that spot when YOU have the nuts. You got played, sir.

    s.i.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Am I reading this right? You would be happier if you get beat by players that can extract the maximum value out of you?

    Regarding your previous post on LAG players, do you want to beat them, or do you want to become one? If you did mean beat them, what exactly do you mean by beating? Obviously there are some excellent LAG players, and there are some terrible ones, and lots in between. You question is too vague for me to answer in any intelligent way. Poker Kat has a good suggestion though, there are free resources you can check out. By doing some digging, may be you can figure out exactly what you want to know.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm guessing Tony is actually talking about aggro fish. You simply don't see many competent LAGs in 1/2 games. If Tony could pay attention and estimate a VPIP for these alleged LAGs we'd know, but...

      Delete
  5. Tony, I did a quick look on Youtube, and the second video I came across seems like a pretty good primer. Let me know if you have questions about the video.

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=kaDBhyilRU4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaDBhyilRU4

      Thanks Pokerdogg - excellent info on LAG's

      Delete
  6. Tony, it is not a link, just copy and paste the URL into your browser. I am posting from my phone, not sure how to create a link.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. all that it does is show an ad for a new car, then it shows u all the videos that i last looked at on you tube. probably the reason it shows something different for u is its showing the video YOU last looked at.

      Delete
    2. ok, now i got it to work, by ONLY copying and pasting this part of the link.

      kaDBhyilRU4

      a bunch of google suggested links came up and it brought up the video on facebook instead of utube, but its playing now.

      Delete
  7. "i had KJ suited, and i limp in, flop comes up JT6 rainbow
    i bet $10 and get one caller. turn comes 7 putting out a possible flush draw. he checks, and again i bet $20 he calls. river comes 5, he shoves allin and i call.
    he has the nut straight with 89.

    anyone care to guess what thoughts were going thru his mind?"

    My guess why he did not re-raise on the turn and wait till the river is becasue there where three suited cards already out and if another came out on the river and you bet he would have to assume you have the flush now and he can throw his hand away with a small loss.

    Overall he played the hand well. He got maximum value from his hand.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. there was no flush out. just a flush draw.

      Delete
  8. I also don't understand why my hourly rate at poker keeps getting smaller and smaller. its lowest point ever, ($13.37 per hour).

    Making $13 an hour playing $1-2 No Limit is excellent. Your in the top 20% of poker players for that level.

    My guess is that only 20% of the people who play $1-2 no limit poker make a profit. Most lose mainly due to the rake that is taken out.

    If the rake is $5 per hand and you see 30 hands an hour then a max of $150 is being taken from the table and put into the rake box every hour.

    You play for 8 hours and they could end up raking $1,200 from the table in those 8 hours.

    After that much money is taken from the table in rake it is not easy to be able to pull off a profit.

    If there was no rake my guess is that you would be making around $30 an hour.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. if that was the case i should go to portland immediately where theres no rake, and use the extra $17 an hour to cover the $80 a nite hotel fees etc

      in truth, most hands never reach a $5 rake. they end early and are at a $1 or $2 rake. so much less is taken, maybe $500 at most within 8 hours in rake.

      Delete
    2. Typical hourly drop for a $5 rake is around $120

      Delete
    3. no it isnt because only about 1 hand out of 5 reaches enough to take the full $5. commonly the pot contains less than $20 and the hand ends preflop or on the flop and only $1 is taken for the rake.

      Delete
    4. I'm giving you the *typical* hourly for that rake structure. The fact you play in shitty games isn't my problem.

      Delete
    5. as proof of this, if the house was really taking in $120 an hour, they wouldnt be saying a lot of smaller casinos they need to close the game down (while people still want to play) because "they cant afford to pay the overtime." paying the extra overtime is only about $5 more per person and it would be a negligent amount if they were really raking about $120 an hour instead of about $40

      Delete
    6. We certainly don't want to see negligent amounts disrupting things. Why don't you simply count how many chips go down the alligator?

      Delete
    7. You are way off Tony. For a $5 rake game (which is what I play), I did some counting in the past and observe between $100 to $120 rake per hour in a 1/3 game. 1/2 is a bit less, but still pretty close to $100 per hour. Just think about it for a moment, how much do you get comped each hour? What about the average amount of drinks a person consume per hour? Do you really think $40 per hour is going to cover just the comp and drink, let alone the dealer salary+overtime?

      Delete
    8. Kat, Tony doesn't play in shitty games, from what I can tell from his hand histories. He just have no concept of economic realities.

      Delete
    9. I was under the impression he could at least count, but I see your point.

      Delete
    10. you're at 13 an hour becuase you've ran well with jackpots.
      you'll be under 10 after a few thousand hours.

      there's a reason you're 45 and still playing 1/2 nl. you're an uncreative results oriented nit with tilt problems. you'll never beat anything higher.

      Delete
  9. "id like to learn how to beat the LAG style"

    You asked this question in your last post before this one and people gave you some good advice there. Check those comments.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. why would u think i havent read those comments too?

      Delete
  10. Tony, you need to realize that as part of a strategy many pros do not "extract maximum value" on each hand as it makes their play to predictable over the sesson or over multiple sessions. If I can switch up my play so others at the table can't get a beet on my play I will sacrifice a few buck in a single hand to benefit me in 3 to 5 hands latter in the night.

    MIV.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I caution against that approach in your typical 1/2 game. First of all, I believe Tony is already playing sub-optimally, so no need to do it on purpose. Secondly, there are few people at 1/2 that plays exploitatively. Trying to defend against such situation by "mixing" it up, probably ends up costing more in the long term

      Delete
    2. exactly poker dog.even in 5/10 nl in great games i'm amazed how many people think balance matters. save that shit for tough online games against good opponents you play every day.

      Delete
    3. Poker D O dubbed g. Good point. I only play 1/2 once a year when I meet up with Tony and I only do it for entertainment purposes. For me I stand by my assertion that extracting maximum value make my game too predictable. I am not saying play a hand you would not normally play but periodic sub optimal bet sizing has helped me a lot in cash games.

      Delete
    4. Oh one last thing. I was not suggesting Tony should intentionally play sub optimal poker. I wanted him to realise others might not get to his satisfaction intentionally to not allow others to get a read on their play. I just want him to realise it might be intentional.

      MIV

      Delete
  11. tony bigcharles ‏@sevencard2003 40m40 minutes ago

    new roll $10,848. im going to pay some money to go deposit into the nearest ATM machine. up about $1600 total on the VBJ so far.

    Tony, $1600 is a fantastic win from the vbj machine. Remember what I said a couple of posts ago, one of your main problems is your greed. You just don't know when to take the money and run. You nearly had a $1200 loss the other day, that was a huge warning sign and wake up call. Don't you think it is time to get away from that machine with your profit and go back to poker? Just a thought. Take care.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Great blog. All posts have something to learn. Your work is very good

    ReplyDelete
  13. tony bigcharles ‏@sevencard2003 8 hrs8 hours ago

    new roll $11,168
    0 retweets 0 favourites

    Seven hours later:

    tony bigcharles ‏@sevencard2003 28 mins28 minutes ago

    new roll $10,514. must be time to head into reno.

    Dropped $650. I tried to warn you. As usual your greed and your refusal to listen got you again. Oh well......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is the point of patting Tony on the back when he wins at a -EV game and then chastising him when he loses at that same -EV game. Have some consistency.

      Delete
    2. Whenever Tony sits at a -EV game he is losing. The +/- of any session is simply variance about that downward mean. And yet our resident genius opens this blog post with "i dont understand why im having so much good luck on this VBJ machine (up over $700 on it since arriving in Crystal Bay). maybe its just my style of betting, (and that i havent taken the big loss yet)." Beyond help clearly.

      Delete

  14. Its a nice blog! I was not suggesting Tony should intentionally play sub optimal Poker . I wanted him to realise others might not get to his satisfaction intentionally to not allow others to get a read on their play. I just want him to realise it might be intentional.

    ReplyDelete