Saturday, July 4, 2015

the upcoming Peppermill freeroll.

The other day, i finally made a large sized deposit on Bovada (of $112) instead of just a tiny one of the $20 minimum or slightly more. i hate to take anything at all out of my roll, but im sick of making multiple deposits and never having any money there. maybe its a mistake to put money there at all instead of just playing in the casino, but i always like to have something to do from home to make money.

and as much as id like to be in vegas right now--i dont want to go too far from reno til after the freeroll. now yes i know only 5 or less will make something really decent out of it, and yes i know that staying in reno already cost me over $350 tonight when u count what i lost in the big split poker machine after leaving the poker room up $347. (thats why im now at the Tahoe Biltmore instead of in reno for 3-5 days.)

But id like to think of it this way. 1. i need more tourny experience and i wanted to play at least one tourny during the time period of the WSOP. 2. i have a decent chip lead at the start. (along with the top 20 hours out of the 100 people). 3. i won the riviera tourny once for over $1700 and had to waste half of the money paying Herbie. 4. i think if i actually play my best in this, i just might have a shot. quite a few of the entries will be other people who dont normally play tournies and might not be shoving when down to very few BBs. should at least be able to make it to 40th for $100 if i dont take a bad beat early. 15th to 40th all get $100, so its pretty flat for an unusually large number of spots.

my biggest worry will be people colluding with each other in it.

also i bought in for $200 tonight at the Peppermill in the $1-2 game instead of the more standard buyin of $120 (or close thereabouts). it worked out too, i early on got it up to just over $300, and a couple hours later had it up to $656 at the hi water mark. when i eventually cashed out, i still had $547. Think of how much better my life would be, (and how much better medical care, accomodations, food and stress level id have) if i was averaging $200 profit per day (also known as $72,000 a year).

can someone explain why 72k a year is not profitable at $1-2 NL? shouldnt it be if someone buys in high enough amounts and puts in enough hours? i dont think even Pokerdogg is doing it and not sure why. i doubt anyone here is better at the game than him.

also if i move out of where im living, i might never be able to move back in at least without waiting for months. and as much as id like to be in vegas to see steathmunk, i dont want to be charged rent two cities at the same time. or be charged for a place i might not make it back to.




47 comments:

  1. Tony, in order to make $72k/year @ $13/hr, you will have to play more than 15 hours per day, 365 days a year. That is 106 hours per week! I have worked 100 hours week before in my younger days. It was exhausting, I had no life outside of work, and after a few weeks, I was pretty much burnt out. It is simply not sustainable.

    In addition, there is no way you will be able to maintain the same win rate if you are working that many hours. You will be exhausted all the time, make more mistakes, and playing at hours that are less profitable.

    I think the upper range of sustainable hours for you is probably around 60 hours per week. 60 x 13 x 50 (2 weeks off) = $39000 a year. Nothing glamorous, but should be enough for you to live on while building your bankroll, provided you stay in one city with an affordable place to live. No more crisscrossing the country trying to find the next best 1/2 game.

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  2. $72000/year means 15 hours of poker EVERY DAY, given your $13/hr win rate. That's why it's not feasible.

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  3. well theres no reason the $13 hourly rate cant go way up. if i have any money left when i get out of tahoe, im out $1000 already

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    1. Lots of reasons why your winrate won't go way up. The only way is if you win a big bad beat jackpot, and even then you shouldn't count that in your winrate.

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    2. i doubt Kat even makes $5 an hour at poker. the easiest way to make the win rate go way up is to never sit in games with under 6 players. that should almost double the winrate.

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    3. Given your propensity to be wrong about everything, I am relieved by your estimate.

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    4. Tony, just because you have problems with short handed games doesn't mean everyone else does. If you make the right adjustments they can be very profitable. If you want to improve your short handed play you need practice, but only play when the game is good and you are playing well. Don't play short handed when the game is tough or it's late, or you're stuck and tired.

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    5. Apparently moving to somewhere that minimum wage is $15/hour has never occurred to Hero. A burger flipper makes more than you, Tony. Time to rethink your career choice!

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    6. u have a much better lifestyle making $8.25 an hour in the cities thats the wage, than making $15 an hour in the cities that is the wage, because the cost of living is much different.

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    7. u have a much better lifestyle making $8.25 an hour in the cities thats the wage, than making $15 an hour in the cities that is the wage, because the cost of living is much different.

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    8. Tony, I thought that minimum wage in the US varies by states, not by cities. Cost of living varies by cities, and sometimes differs greatly within a city. Your assertion that the lower the minimum wage, the better your standard of living at said minimum wage is ludicrous.

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    9. Cities can have a higher minimum wage than their state. See Seattle.

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  4. right before i slept 10 hours i turned $12300+ into $100 profit, then $1100 loss, and now at $11,330

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  5. Your thinking is so weird... counting in machine losses to how much it cost you to stay somewhere for a night. You are not smart enough to be a professional gamble in my opinion. You seem to have no concept of the very basics of variance and other concepts that should be obvious to a poker player. You can't be bothered to pay attention to the game enough to write a real hand history, and you never shut up. Five up while you still have money

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    Replies
    1. if i change the way i do things i mightve ran out of money and went broke a long time ago. must be doing something right that im able to comprehend and u arent able to comprehend.

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  6. Bro you are wasting the life you're living. You're living the dream, a full time professional poker player, but you're not experiencing any of the benefits. Like partying, girls, socializing with peers, girls, doing things you like perhaps fishing or movies or whatever, girls, watching sports, girls........ did I mention girls?? Bro, you're making $13/hr, based on a 40 hour work week with 2 days off a week that's 2 grand a month tax free because we know you'll never file taxes on this shit. If you're living expenses are say $1000 a month, you can take that 2 grand, pay $1000 for your living expenses, take $500 and add it to your bankroll each month, and still have $500 a month left over to party, go to a night club and dance with a few babes, pick up a few cell numbers along the way,grab a late night coffee and get to know her and then who knows. If your expenses are more than $1000 a month so work 6 days and have a blast on the 7th. Hell you're religious and even God took the 7th day off to do a little partyin so why not you, man. You're livin the dream and having no fun with it. Dude, relax, lighten up, chill, and let loose. When I am playing the tournaments in Vegas full time come January I am working Mon-Fri and come the weekend it's gonna be time to jam that Vegas scene. Life's too damn short and time for you to start livin not existing, and waking up in strange hotel rooms with gals you can't even remember how you got there with them the night before. Peace out, Bro.

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    1. Have you MET Tony? Just curious if you understand that the idea of him dancing is an image that will repel women.

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    2. Oh man YouTube would break

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    3. No Alysia I have never actually met Tony in person. I may see him in Vegas at some point I would imagine after January on one of his visit/move/visit/move scenarios he does between towns lol.

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  7. its more than that per week, i never take days off. why sit in a room at home bored 2 days a week? what i really need to do is increase the win rate. that involves either moving to a better location, or to quit playing in games i dont think are best suited for my winrate. (by the way i just busted out of my $7.70 mtt without reaching the money) and im about to sleep. im too old for any women to be interested in me, they all like guys under 35 and im 46. and my rent alone is $600 a month so of course my living expenses are more than twice that. i need to make sure i never touch a VP machine, those cost me about $1000 a month unlike the VBJ which overall breaks nearly even. the fun isnt a good idea now. the fun comes when u have money saved up--stockpiling the money relieves stress--and that makes it more fun. and the rake is so high in live tournys no one can make a living unless they play cash instead. unless u know how to beat the shit out of people, its a very bad idea to ever let a women in your room while asleep, because they will let guys in to rob u

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    Replies
    1. Miamicane seems to do OK in live tournies !

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    2. Miamicane is a very good tourney player, but even then he plays live cash games, as well as lots of online tourneys and cash.

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  8. Dude, I'm 47 and already I have at least 4 dates set up for my first week in Vegas not too mention another chick I'm meeting next month here in Tennessee which by the way she's driving two and a half hours to come see me, not to mention another gal I can hang out with down in Tampa anytime I want to. Not too mention the ex in Virginia and South Dakota that would love it if I went back to either of those states and finally another gal, who I might add is drop dead gorgeous, and is seriously thinking about following me out to Vegas. Age comes into this how??? lol

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    1. women like guys who drink, arent socially awkward (and have a car and know how to drive it). and i thought u were much younger

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    2. You can make it two out of three pretty easy with just a little effort on your part (hint: not drinking and driving). In other news... since you are mobile you should take advantage of the cities that have mandated $15 an hour minimum wage. Seems like that would be a sweet deal for you and it would give you an opportunity to start paying some money in social security. I reviewed my social security statement/summary last month and it had my income in the couple of jobs that I had before I graduated high school up to current and then provides estimates for payouts that I would receive at age 62, 67, etc. Have you ever received one of those statements?

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  9. Yeah I know. Most people take me for 35 and I'm lovin it lol

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  10. I played live tourneys in 2011 out of Atlantic City and was making three or four thousand a month at the time. The only reason I stopped playing was yeah you guessed it.......... a woman lol. I know when I play live tourneys in Vegas my return on investment will be around 30% or higher so I will be fine making $15k the first year from poker and the 2nd year should be $30k and the following years $40k-$50k and up. I may play some limit cash gameson the side, but I am a tournament player first and foremost.

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  12. Tony, when did you start tracking your hours (day, month, year) and how many total hours and average dollar profit per hour since tracking started?

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    1. april of 2014. close to 2300 hours now with just over $13 hour at $1-2

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    2. april of 2014. close to 2300 hours now with just over $13 hour at $1-2

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    3. What the hell Tony? That translates to around 1800 hours for 12 months, which is only 1/3 the volume you need to make $72/year. I am not sure why you wrote about making $72k/year at 1/2, when you have only put in 1/3 the volume last year necessary to do so. Do you think it is doable?

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    4. Thanks for sharing, Tony. Your numbers are equivalent to a person earning about $30,000 per year, while working 2080 hours, and then paying federal taxes on that income. If you could figure out how much you won/lost in the casinos excluding poker, that would give you a good picture of your true income per year.

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  13. TBC is correct. There is more variance to your bankroll when playing shorthanded.

    Maybe TBC can hook up with FlushhDraw as his wing man and hit some bars together and meet some chicks. That would make a pretty interesting blog post.

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    1. uhhhh how do I put this without sounding mean......... If Tony ever tagged along with me to a club or lounge there is no doubt I could arrange for him to score that night with some gal the problem is I have read about certain personal hygiene issues about him from reading the blog and welllllllllll when I was told on here by Alysia that even him just dancing would repel women I'm thinkin the boy would strike out in a brothel. I mean I could get him in the right direction, but I can't work miracles lmao.

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  14. Good advice from Poker Grumps last column:

    "I think the best strategic approach to an “aces cracked” promotion is just walk away and find a casino not offering a bonus that so badly distorts how the game is played."

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    1. i think aces cracked is really helpful if u have a very small sum of money on the table and a small roll. it helped to protect me everytime i slipped below $2000. but for a normal roll, not so much.

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    2. i think aces cracked is really helpful if u have a very small sum of money on the table and a small roll. it helped to protect me everytime i slipped below $2000. but for a normal roll, not so much.

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  15. i sure wish id have brought an extra pair of clean socks with me, but i think i was out of them. they all needed washed. things arent going so well, ive got over 250 tickets for the end of sept $9088 drawing, but im back to being down about $600 overall from being up about $600 overall. still, i won big the previous trip and i dont think im losing for the year. i think for the last million ive ran thru the machine im still up

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    1. Why do you not keep records so that you can know if you are up?

      It could tell you that your machine win/loss rate is well below that of your poker win rate.

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    2. Wouldn't it be nice to know for sure? I'd think an intelligent gambler such as yourself would want to know his results in all forms of gambling so he would know what games are most profitable. Maybe you enjoy the rush you get from playing -ev games so much that you're afraid to track anything except 1-2 nl?

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    3. I think it's pretty obvious that he doesn't track results of machine play because he doesn't want to know the answer. Lack of data means that he can keep on pretending it's profitable. Denial comes in many different forms.

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    4. truthfully, most of my bankroll came from large wins on VBJ machines. (the run up from $10k to $19k last fall in vegas while koala was in town) at the elcortez and then good luck here in tahoe.

      some losses too, such as the palazzo fiasco, terribles in fernley etc and delaware park. but i think im using a wiser strategy more recently. and at delaware park i overbet way too much. and at the tropicana i shouldnt played at all since it was shuffling every hand.

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  16. Tony I wil be in Reno on Monday with my girl. I want to see where you are living and go do something, we can gamble too.

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    1. why do u need to see where im living right as im planning to soon move out maybe? why didnt u ever answer me back on twitter my DM last time u were in the area? wouldve been much better if u were here sat or sunday, i definitely must be back for the freeroll sunday. i think ill leave friday for reno

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