Tuesday, April 12, 2016

why i lost close to $6000 yesterday

i'm not entirely happy with where im staying. yes ive got a place to live til may 7th. yes theres good wifi, a microwave, and a fridge, but the fridge wont get cold enough and the freezer wont keep food frozen, and yes i should go discuss this with the front desk. i feel relatively safe here, regardless of the ethnicity of the fellow tenants. there enough of blue collar good hearted people mixed into the clientele. bossier city is much lower for crime than shreveport if u look.

if i wouldnt have needed to come here to get new ID, i would still be in parx with $24,500

the main thing i dont like is $30 daily cab fees. $15 twice a day. this is $900 month and is killing me. i try to get at least 1 bus a day if i can to lower this. which runs very sparingly here, and not this far out on weekends. so i would like to move come may 7. id like to move to one of the 2 places near the casino (or leave town). they cost more, but not with no more cabs needed they wouldnt. plus the one place has a washer and dryer in the apt for $840. but i doubt they would rent to me. it would be nice to live in a place with one, but im not sure how i ever could. even if i had 50k i wouldnt know how to get in.  would also be nice to live in a place with an upstairs and downstairs again. i would like instructions to how someone with lots of money but no credit or history could get both of these things.

so what im saying is i dread leaving the casino because its final. not like in reno where i could walk back and forth home multiple times. i want to live 1-2 blocks from a casino anywhere in the usa. would like ideas where. by final i mean i wouldnt wish to pay a cab if im not going home for good that day. this causes me to stay at the casino longer than i really should.

i was up about $800 once in the poker room last night, and was back over $20,000. was the 2nd good night in a row since the day before i won the $750 ($705 after taxes were taken out) in deal or no deal when they called my name. plus, i won close to $1000 in the poker room the same night. this is a really good poker room, as u can see from the following phone records.

3/30 $251 profit.
3/31 $118                                            duration 77 hours total at $67 per hour profit, for a total of over
4/1   $642                                             $5200. now thats in 2 weeks. in this rate id earn $10k per
4/2  $365                                              month, for $120k per year. too high to be sustainable long term
4/2   $682
4/3   $407
4/4   $350 loss
4/5  $197 profit
4/6  $816
4/7  $253
4/8   $543
4/9   $885
4/11  $469

but u see now why i never left shreveport ive never found a $1-3 NL game quite this good. one loss out of 12 sessions. im not sure if Pokerdogg ever runs this hot in $1-3. so u would think i would now have much more than the approximately $19k i came to town with. but instead ive got close to $6000 less with $13,449. these live BJ losses killed me, plus the close to $3000 in video poker losses all but $200 worth from the other day that i already told u guys about on twitter previously.

is the solution to spend much more time in the poker room or to leave as soon as may 7 comes? i wouldnt be too happy if i didnt continue winning in that poker room. with all ive dropped, i couldnt afford to start losing now. yet i know one must be coming, u cant run good forever. twice i won big pots of $500 or so with only 1 out in the deck and hitting it. plus ive had much more big pairs hold up than normal. no matter how high ive grown my roll, my initial buyin is usually $120, rebuys usually $200 or $300 up to 70% of the big stack maximum buyin. its very easy to get away with buying in 80-90% of the big stack though i dont do it. button straddle allowed if the whole table agrees. usually no one asks. but certain guys ask whenever they sit. $6 max so whats the point?

if this continues for the rest of the time til may 7, i will have my $19k back if i never play a single hand of video poker or BJ.i felt that if im winning $10,000 per month in $1-3 NL, surely i of all people, can afford to play a little BJ. and yet that wouldnt have hurt me like it did if i wouldve just run a little better, like i did in the northeast. for example yesterday, when i had 2 bets of $500 each out, which wouldve been enough to get me unstuck at the time, long before i got stuck big. i got dealt 17 on one hand and 33 on the other. dealer had a 3 showing. so i split, hoping for 7 or 8 to double down. got another 3. split again. got 4 and J for 17. then got 18 on the next hand. and on the final 3 was dealt a 6 so i doubled down and got 19. then the dealer turns over a 2 to go with their 3, then a 10 for 15, then an ace for 16, and then doesnt bust. i wouldve been up quite a lot if she had.

just lost the sng on bovada leaving me with only $11 left. its almost time to go get my clothes out of the dryer. as bad of shape as im getting into for money, i really wish i wouldve spent $100-300 buying tons of clothes the day the suitcase disappeared before i got in back in 1-2 days. i wouldve been eligible to get the money back and would have a lot of free nice new clothes. i never got a dime since i didnt pursue it without any receipts to show for costs incurred. plus i seem to be missing most of my silverware. i know i once had 3 spoons and a fork in my suitcase, all stainless steel. somehow im down to 1 spoon and wondering why. not many places sell them and im seldom near any type of store. just go to the casino and back. and i really need a haircut and shave again too.

56 comments:

  1. The best way to get into a place without good credit is to offer to pay for a few months in advance. Or you could find a room mate.

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    1. the reason i didnt approve ur other 2 comments a few blogs back is i knew u werent the woman bennys referring to, but a gay male from ur profile on google. ive offered to prepay but thats done no good. it might with a private owner instead of a big company. plus i dont wish to commit for more than 1 month. i dont want to be stuck in a city unable to leave. i would never consider a roommate. look at the horrible bind this put flushdraw in. im afraid to even trust a woman

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    2. My profile was just set to the default from when I signed up. I'm 100% woman. You've met me before!

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  2. "would also be nice to live in a place with an upstairs and downstairs again. i would like instructions to how someone with lots of money but no credit or history could get both of these things." Well there is one way that I have heard of you might like. Sometimes when people want something really badly that they are certain they will never be able to have they "make a deal with God". Something like "if my mother's blood test at the doctor comes back healthy I will go to church X number of times." In your case the DWG would be something like "if you can help me find an apartment rental across the street from a casino that is a safe two-story unit I will go to church 9 times in the next 60 days". I hear that works BTW...

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  3. You lose because you play -EV games. You don't realize you're -EV at some games because you use high variance betting systems. The solution to not losing so much money is to stop playing -EV games. You are almost certainly -EV overall at blackjack, given that you use a piss poor counting system, an awful betting ramp, and periodically you say fuck it and just bet whatever will get you unstuck, regardless of count.

    You think you're +EV at all the VBJ and live BJ you play. You aren't. But you won't listen to math, so you're going to end up broke. If the fact that you're almost 17k poorer than your high water mark doesn't convince you of this, then nothing will.

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  4. The most interesting aspect of your recent blog is the part about the missing silverware. I think this raises many interesting questions about the nature of space and time. There is a website you should post about this, and you will get a definitive answer, (caution, it's quite addictive, and you won't be able to stop reading): https://www.reddit.com/r/Glitch_in_the_Matrix/?ref=search_subreddits

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  5. I like how the huge losses in bj and vp aren't what's killing you. But it's the 2-$15 cab rides a day. Hahaha talk about delusional.

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    1. hhaha drop 3k on one bj hand "damb 15 dollar cabs"

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  6. If you want a place to rent it's really simple. Get a job

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  7. Without reading the actual post, I'm going to guess the answer is reckless gambling.

    And...I read the post and discovered I was correct. Go me!

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  8. Tony, I would not call playing $500 a hand "a little" Blackjack. If you are actually making $10K a month and you want to play a little BJ for fun, then sure, may be $5 or $10 a hand. You put 10% of your liferoll with those 2 hands of BJ, it is to be expected you will have a big loss from time to time.

    As far as poker goes in live 1/3nl, I think my longest winning streak is 13 or 14 sessions, and I just came off an 11 sessions winning streak a few days ago. Not sure what the most $ won over 77 hours, but it seems reasonable to me to be up $5k in that amount of play.

    I was running and playing well for the weeks leading up to and during my winning streak. However, since breaking the streak, I have been playing horribly, both live and online. I am going take a short break and work on my focus.

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    1. He bet $500 in 2 spots. That's $1,000 a hand blackjack.

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    2. He bet $500 in 2 spots. That's $1,000 a hand blackjack.

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    3. By that logic he played a $2500 hand of blackjack, with the splits and double down.

      Technically he was playing $500 a hand. Each $500 can win or lose on its own. Yes there is some correlation between the 2 hands because it is going up against one dealer hand, but if you look at the variance of playing two $500 hands vs one $1000 hand and two consecutive $500 hands, it is a lot closer to two consecutive $500 hands.

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    4. The addicted gambler TBC will never be able to avoid these losses - ever! He is an action junkie who doesnt like how long it takes to win his money back by playing only poker. So he goes to live BJ or a machine to earn it back much more quickly. Then he gets that big loss hung right on him. Sorry Tony but I hope that 6k loss really hurt your brain. Good luck getting that back quickly. LOL

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    5. which is worse- thinking he's +ev at bj or thinking he can average 10k a month at 1/2 nl?

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  9. Just get back on the BJ table. You lost it there I'm sure you will start running good again.

    Why would you want to leave if the poker is that soft

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  10. If you made this much in the poker room, why did you have to play BJ. Make money, leave, enjoy life, simple. The casino will be there tomorrow. Or maybe it's not the full story.

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    1. full story is i gave back $400 of the poker win before leaving, then threw away $175 on VP so then went to play BJ. had i done none of these, id never went there to begin with.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. i would never feel comfortable riding one. u dont include how to find the blog.

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  11. You shouldn't allow yourself access to that kind of cash in one day it's a quarter of your net worth. Besides tilting you could get robbed as well. As a pro poker player, you need 2k max for a 1/3 game. If you lose more than that you're probably playing terribly in addition to bad variance.

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    1. 6-7 buyins isnt nearly enough for $1-3, but its certainly enough for just this one day.

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    2. $6000 is 20 "full" buyins @ 100bb. I think it is a terrible idea for you to buy in more than that. You use this higher buyin cap as sort of crazy poker martingale. The more you are stuck, the more you put on the table, precisely when you are ripe to go on tilt and punt your stack. Don't you see this is just begging for trouble?

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    3. most wouldnt buyin for $300 if they could for more. most buyin for the max. if i hadnt rebought for $700 today when stuck $300+ i never wouldve left the room 2-3 hours later up over $600

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    4. 100 big blinds is pretty shortstacked too

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    5. Its not enough for a permanent roll, but its enough to play poker for the day. Think about it.

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    6. it is. yet you buy in for 120 until you're stuck.

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  12. Splitting 3's? Against a 5 or 6 maybe. But against a 3? Marginal decision at best

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    1. If by marginal you mean the mathematically correct play, then yes, it was marginal.

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    2. lol seriously. what an awful post westfred.

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  13. would like to talk about 2 hands in today's $600+ winning poker session. today, i played nothing but poker. i was stuck over $300 once, so i was glad to see the winning streak continue. especially as bad as im needing money after yesterdays loss. i had 45 of diamonds, and called $10 preflop. the board comes 267 with 2 hearts. preflop raiser bets $25, i call, other guy folds. turn comes Jh for the flush possible. guy checks, i bet $112 and he folds. some guys this would not work against. got to know ur player.

    the other hand i played badly but got lucky. i had 44 and limped $3. multiple limps, and the guy in the SB or BB bets $15. i call so do 3-4 others, then the old man with plenty of chips (who has been known to raise loosely preflop in the past) bets $105. the blind thinks, then finally folds, flashing the ace of diamonds. i dont see how he has a real hand when he didnt raise the first time around so i put him on an isolation steal. i called with 44 (not the best move) then check the flop dark which might not be the best move either. i wanted to represent a higher pair than i had, like 77-1010. i put him on a medium pair too or 2 suited overs. i was going to try to steal if the ace hit (bad move number 3?)

    flop comes K24 (id checked it dark). he shoves, i called. he says good call very fast, and my hand holds. never seen his hand.

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    1. Why bet so much on the turn when you represented the flush? You probably could have bet $60 and accomplish the same thing. If he calls you have better fold power on the river with a smaller bet.

      The 44 hand, is a cluster fuck. I got to go to our poultry club meeting. I will try to comment when I get back.

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    2. Tony, simply amazing reads on your opponents. Most poker players simply play by the book but you play at a level higher than most of us, which is why you are such a profitable gambler. Congratulations, and keep playing your game.

      MIV

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    3. Our Hero makes moves that Stealthmunk would be proud of!

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    4. First hand was played badly. On the turn, when checked to, bet $40 so you get called. Then, if the opponent checks the river, you bet big on this street. This way you earn an extra $40.

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    5. Tony, about the 44 hand, you didn't mention the effective stack size but I assume you didn't have enough to set mine. So here are my questions :

      Will the squeezer fold if you moved all in? Do you have enough behind to make him fold? If you think he is making a move and you have enough to force a fold good % of the time, you should have shoved.

      Why did you check in the dark? What exactly are you trying to rep, an Ace or mid pairs? You made it kind of hard to rep anything when you give up the chance to act first.

      Did you mention to the table and dealer you saw the flashed card?

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    6. no, i didnt wish to start controversy pointing this out. i thought the dealer seen it too. since he didnt point it out, why should i open this can of worms? had no idea if he would fold but didnt wish to risk it. we both had about $600-700 behind. no not enough to set mine. got lucky. i wanted to see if he would bet the flop if the ace hit. if i look then check, he might try to represent the ace without having it.

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    7. Why would be a controversy? I call out flashed cards all the time, do you think it is fair that you know one Ace of the is gone?

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    8. lol he's betting every flop you dolt

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  14. Did you make that horrific play with the 44 when stuck?

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    1. of course. he probably folds for 15 when he's up.

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  15. Tony, where did you stay in Reno?

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  16. Tony, where did you stay in Reno?

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    1. the hotel 1 block up that rents monthly or weekly

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  17. Tony - your 11 session run is an anomaly. The run is not sustainable; you will experience variance at some point and drop down to normal - expect to see losses to balance out those wins. My best streak was a 13 session period where I averaged $76 / hr at 1/3.

    So far as your comment about being closer to the casino: casinos are generally in a worse part of town for a reason; if you want to be closer to the casino (i.e. biking or walking distance) then you give up your sense of security or safety.

    I do have a question for you though: why not purchase a cheap bike to use back and forth? If the bike costs let's say $100 - that gives you 3.5 days of trips back and forth to the casino. If you get your bike stolen any time after that period, you've made money by having the bike. I seriously doubt that (even if you didn't lock the bike up) the bike would be stolen at a frequency of greater than once per week! So, if you're spending $15 * 2 * 7 = $210 per week in transportation, then you should be able to come out WAY ahead by owning a bike and still having it get stolen every so often. Just a thought.

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    1. it dropped slightly today, won $367 in about 6-7 hours, reducing the average to $65 per hour from $67

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    2. Just ready yourself for the inevitable downturn. What goes up will come down to normal levels.

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  18. "i seem to be missing most of my silverware. i know i once had 3 spoons and a fork in my suitcase, all stainless steel. somehow im down to 1 spoon and wondering why. not many places sell them"

    Tony - every store beyond a mini-mart sells silverware. Walmart sells them. Target sells them. Even grocery stores sell them. Next time you're in a store, ask someone for help and I'm pretty confident you'll be directed to an isle with silverware.

    s.i.

    p.s. - your 6k loss was horrific. You seem to be taking it well...

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    1. i took it well for 3 reasons. 1. i still had over $13k left. 2. i win consistently and huge in this room. 1 losing session out of 15, with over $5000 overall profit. 3. it feels really good to finally have a place of my own paid for by the month once more.

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  19. Do you have ANY idea how much dental work you could get done for $5800? This is mind boggling.

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    1. it's enough for an alligator to get dental work done.

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    2. earlier u didnt even think $20,000 would get the teeth fixed.

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    3. Just because you can't get ALL your teeth fixed for less than $20k, it doesn't mean you can't get SOME of your teeth fixed for $5800. I know because of your autism thinking in terms of all or nothing is your M.O.

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  20. "all stainless steel" classic.

    also i don't know which is worse- thinking you have an edge at bj which you dont. or betting 2 hands of 500 with less than 20k to your name even if you did have an edge.

    real shocker you throw those bets out their when you're stuck.

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