Sunday, May 1, 2016

how do u best abuse this type of promotion?

since i had the huge loss on live BJ in the eldorado and diamondjacks (both same day totalling $5400) i have had a few winning sessions in which ive recovered close to $1500 in all. not once did i bet more than 1% of the roll, so im using good bankroll rules. i never wouldve lost the money had i followed the rules, for i wouldnt been betting 2 hands of $1000 each without a $200,000 roll. plus i also discovered the $25 and up tables in the shreveport do offer stand on soft 17, though im not playing them due to the higher min bets and no mid shoe entry signs. but when the roll will afford it maybe i should.

hourly is down to $36 an hour as i hit the 243 hour mark. wasnt doing well today in $1-3 tried to bluff the wrong guy with the big stack whod just recently sat, and liked to straddle. it was bugging me too the last 2-3 hours i was on the boat, no working internet on my cell. i didnt recover it til i got in the cab and off the property. my initial total buyins of $385 had grown to $570. then i lost the entire thing on trying to bluff this guy. called his preflop raise with 88 in multiway pot. flop comes J34 with 2 diamonds. he is last to act, and bets the flop once we all checked. everyone folds to me, and not being sure i dont have the best hand, i call. wouldnt u?

turn card is 6 of diamonds, and he bets $45 when i check. not being sure if he is weak or strong, i check raise to $125 and he calls. so im hoping no more diamonds. river comes 2 of clubs. i shove all in thinking hes worried i turned the flush or at least beat his 1 pair. i have him covered by $33 and my river bet is over $350. he turns over 44 for a set of 4's and thinks. eventually he calls. i think i took way too much risk, shouldve been happy with the days win. i lost another hand too when i called $15 preflop with 68 of spades. the flop comes 379 rainbow 1 spade. guy bets $10, 5 of us call, guy on end makes it $105. only i call. should i? turn comes 6 we both check. river comes 2 we check, he wins with a9.

Grump seems to know about how best to take advantage of various types of promotions. hes blogged this more than once. the new promo 3 days a week 12 hours per day, i feel will break the jackpot drop of $5+2.

if there is $20 or more in the pot before the turn card is dealt, and the turn card is either 4 to a flush, 4 to a straight (no gutshots) or trips, the next pot is a $300 splash pot. (which of course will encourage wild play on the following hand) however it will force players to buyin for less if they wish to take full advantage of this (so they will be less likely to fold on the splash pot).

in the time i was at the table, it took place twice for $600 total. which is far more than they were dropping. it didnt start til this afternoon. today was the 1st day. wont the jackpot fund be rapidly deleted, and yes kristi too can join in.

would never have increased the roll today if i wouldnt played BJ. and the poker loss was so huge the increase was very small. im losing over $400 of the bovada money too. while waiting for the withdrawal to be approved i lost too much so it was canceled by them since the requested amount of the withdrawal was no longer left in. so once i log off tonight, i must do it once more. in the meantime im in some $2-4 or $3-6 PLO8 live tables.



36 comments:

  1. If there was no luck involved you would be banking Tony. The casino gets lucky when they screw you in BJ. Keep playing BJ and bet big. If you go on a heater you could clear 30K in one night!

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  2. Tony, I don't remember you ever having a good win on PLO. Maybe I am wrong. Don't you think it might be better if you just stuck to NL. That seems to be your strong game, except when you Martingale your buy ins and try crazy bluffs, because you gave yourself away on a previous bluff shown hand so you could boast about it.

    YOu know, you are going to get caught on a huge Martingale hand of BJ if you don't stay away from those tables.

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    1. it was plo8 i lost the money back in cash on bovada, not plo

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    2. well he does suck at plo so it would be odd for him to be up at it

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  3. I think Tony has moved into the solid degenerate gambler problem camp! He lost $400 on Bovada which cancelled his withdrawal, he made a poor read on a huge bluff, and BJ is kicking his butt! Good job Tony! Stick to that blackjack! You'll turn things around eventually, no doubt... or go busto even sooner.

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    1. Moved into? Meister, he's the god damn mayor!

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  4. Sounds like it will be a popular promotion. Does it run only at usually quiet hours?

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  5. You should have shoved on the turn, not the river, against the guy who flopped 444. Not too sure what to say about your douche move on Bovada. Where did I miss you posting about the recent ER thing? I did check twitter and it wasn't in there. Not at RTP either. Zup wid dat???

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    1. i wanted to make sure first he didnt have a monster. if he goes over the top allin on the turn i just fold

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    2. lol shoving the turn is horrid.what terrible advice.

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  6. By the way, which casino is doing this promo?

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    Replies
    1. eldorado shreveport. come play in it. its wed tues and sun

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  7. Tony:

    It's hard to tell if your bluff was a good play that had a bad result, or a bad play from the start. Was there something that indicated to you that this was a player that could lay down big hands? You said he just recently sat, so it doesn't sound like you had much of a read on him.

    Generally, it's not a great idea to bluff anyone without knowing they have the ability to lay down big hands. He could be a rich guy who buys in big and doesn't value the money much, in which case he is always calling, even with a TPGK type hand.

    The only other point to make about that bluff is that your bluffs typically seem to be "shove". You don't seem, or at least don't articulate in your posts, to give much thought to the size of your bluff. Here, it seems that you could have put the same pressure on him by betting $225, rather than shoving for $350. That saves you $125 if your bluff goes bad. Generally, you should be at least thinking about the size of your bluff and asking yourself, "Can I make a smaller bluff here and still put significant pressure on him?"

    Maybe you did think that through and just didn't type it out, but you don't SEEM to think those thoughts through critically, from reading your other blog posts.

    Just a thought...

    s.i.

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    1. @seattleirish - Good advice! I doubt it will be taken, but definitely a concise description of bet sizing on a bluff! Nicely written.

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    2. same pressure on him by betting $225, rather than shoving for $350.

      Actually, to some players the $225 would look stronger than the shove -- it looks like a value bet.

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    3. I was thinking this before u posted

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    4. Thanks, TPM.

      I agree with Memphis - IF he's a decent player, the $225 would look stronger. Tony - you said you were thinking that before "u" posted (not sure if you were referencing Memphis or me?). But were you thinking that BEFORE you bet?

      It doesn't seem like you have those thoughts when you're playing, or maybe you just don't express them in your blog.

      Was there a reason for the shove vs a bet close to $225? I've played with you enough to know you're a better than average player, and you're a very experienced player. It seems as if that thought would be embedded in your brain by now and it would be automatic to have a better sense of bet sizing on your bluffs; in your blog it seems that you frequently shove when it's not needed.

      Thoughts, Tony?

      s.i.

      p.s. - congrats on getting the roll back up after that nasty LBJ loss. That was a doozy!

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    5. Terrible bluff considering Tony had no knowledge of how his opponent plays.

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  8. FWIW, I like the bluff against the guy with the set, nice winning play if he doesn't call. Of course it helps if you have a tight table image to get the fold. But these are the types of plays real professionals make to steal pots from players with weak hands.

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  9. Tony I'm just starting to dabble into Omaha Hi-Lo but you stated it somewhere it might have been Twitter it might have been somewhere else that part of the money you lost on Bovada came from an all-in pre-flop with AA45. In a high-low game isn't it foolish to be going all-in pre-flop without the potential of the nut low as well??

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    1. compared to aaj8 i had much better low potential. i was way the best of it.

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    2. Please do not take Tony's advice in Omaha. The hand values are much closer together than they are in hold 'em and to shove without first seeing a flop to give texture to your hand is not the wisest of moves. May I suggest Bill Boston's or Mark Tenner's books on the subject?

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    3. there is no such thing as shoving in PLO8. u only rebet max pot. which u would do all the time with aa45 single suited, u have no idea he even has the other aa let alone a better hand (about 2% of hands). dont listen to her, she dont make her living at poker like me and her only experience is fixed limit.

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    4. If you were allin preflop in that AA45 hand, someone must have shoved allin.

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    5. Sorry, but I'm with Alysia -- considering A-A-5-4 as a good hand is how hold 'em players think.

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  10. Tony, you said before the rake was comparable to Vegas. By what possible measure is 5+2 comparable to Vegas? I'm playing at the Wynn which is 1 at 10 1 at 30 1 at 50 1 at 80 NFND. You're probably paying 1 at 10 2 at 20 2 at 30 1 at 40 1 at 50 with raking pre. That casino is probably taking 50% more money than the Wynn. It's not even close.

    I'm assuming the games have been amazing action since you've been there based on your enthusiasm about being there and your wins so far. You better hope that game quality continues indefinitely because the second a 5+2 table stopped being a shitshow or even stopped being full-ring, I think I'd have to leave.

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    1. vast majority of rooms rake much more than the wynn does. wynn has no jackpot drop. most take $5 on $50 plus $1-2 jackpot. in cali its $6+1 preflop. u shouldnt go by the rake when choosing where to play, or u will be where its full of nits.

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  11. These days are going to make for some sweet stories in a few years after you blow them for a place to live!

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  12. tony bigcharles ‏@sevencard2003 1h1 hour ago

    "fully recovered from the $5400 loss. ive won $5900 since. rent coming up soon, will move. 253 logged hours, up by $2 to $38 hour."

    Well that is good. I hope you can get away from wherever you are without taking a massive hit again to you roll. Does this put you back over 20K again? If so, before you leave town, please go by the hospital where you were and pay your account. With computers and everything all talking to each other now, it would not surprise me if hospitals had them linked to keep records of non payers and refuse future treatment. Just a thought.

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    1. No not 20k but far better than $13,400

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    2. tony bigcharles ‏@sevencard2003 1h1 hour ago

      "Lost $3965 blackjack. Almost got badly beaten up by guy watching game I got annoyed at."

      Less than 24 hours after I made the above post, you go and dump it again. What happened to the "no more than blah, blah, blah, percent of my roll." Jesus wept Tony. No wonder you get taken to the cleaners on some poker tables, you are jus so predictable at what you will do and you have absolutely no discipline. So now, I suppose you will go and play a machine somewhere as well.

      Was it the guys fault who was watching you that you lost? Maybe he should have smacked some sense into your stupid head.

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  13. Sounds like a juicy promo! I don't how you can abuse a promo like this, unless you can multitable with min buys. Lots of opportunities to get abused though.

    My suggestion is to predetermine what range you will go allin with what stack sizes. You have to assume there is a good probability someone or someones is going to shove preflop, unless you are in late position are can be relatively certain you can see a cheapish flop.

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  14. how do u best abuse this type of promotion !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!hmm maybe give them wrong address.......

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  15. If I've done the math right, about 1% of four-card boards will have four to a straight, four to a flush, or trips. So the house adds $300 for every roughly 100 hands, which is the equivalent of adding $3 per pot. If you get 25 hands per hour, that's about $75/hour they're adding. Assuming nine players, your extra equity is about $8 per hour. Stated that way, it's pretty decent. The down side, of course, is that you may lose a ton of money chasing that $300 bonus. After all, on average you'll be the one who wins it only 1 out of 9 times. If you have to invest your whole stack to get it (as seems likely), then even if you only chase it half of the time it's available, and even if you only keep a $100 stack, you'll be investing $400-$500 to win that $300. Which is a problem....

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  16. Well, I DIDN'T do the math right. I sent it to a friend to check my work, and he pointed out where I plugged a wrong number in to a calculation. Turns out the answer is about 3% of four-card boards will qualify for a splash pot the next hand. That means that the equity added to each pot is effectively about $9, and you extra equity per hour is about $24. Which is huge. But you still have the problem of how much you lose chasing the $300 bonuses. That's impossible to calculate, because it depends on your stack size, how often you decide to go for it, etc.

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  17. And, BTW, this is going to be one of my examples in an upcoming PokerNews article about a way to do poker math that most players don't know about.

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