Saturday, February 25, 2017

Poker truths

I'm concerned about my future poker results for 2017, i dont wish for 2016 $46,000 winnings to be a fluke. See i've got in quite a few LESS poker hours in for the first 2 months of 2017. about 100 hours less than i shouldve. most of this, is due to the massive amounts of TIME wasted playing BJ.

ive got over 250 hours of $1-2 hours in 2017. for the measly win rate of $7 per hour, split between reno and vegas. this is much lower than it should be.

i've got 24 hours of $3-5 NL, for $87 hour. this is quite a bit higher than it should be according to Bill Potts (and most $2-5 players).

and yet im still uncomfortable with the swings in $3-5 NL unless im stuck first, this is WRONG way to think. plus my buyins are for unusual amounts and all over the place. my variance is more than im comfortable with by far.

im playing less BJ now, but i did recover a few thousand in the past 10 days from playing BJ, at lower stakes. im barely at $30k, and i wont be after i renew the room if i dont get out of town tomorrow. i was at a high of $30,700 (after dropping to $23,900) with the last few days winnings before i lost over $600 tonight.

yesterday while in the $3-5, i recovered the $113 id lost in $1-2, the money id lost in $3-5 earlier, and left with over $600 profit. all after id rebought the whole $1200 left i had with me in cash, which i managed to double up on 1 pot. i called a $15 straddle with 95 of spades, then made a loose call of $50 more when the straddler raised. id just moved tables and no one had no idea how i play well some mightve. i wouldnt bought in so much had i known id be called for the must move, i was trying to get the money from a guy on the other table with his friend from stones.

Flop come 994 with 2 hearts. the raiser bets $100, i make it $300. he thinks and calls. hes asking many questions so i dont think hes got the 9. this is correct when someone does this, right?

turn comes 3. i "accidently" flash the 5 of spades, but i have no idea if he sees it. i just think if he does, surely he wont put me on a 9 as the other card. i then bet allin, and talk about how ill go play BJ if this loses. some of them know me to do this (play BJ) if im caught bluffing. he asks to see a card once i swore on my life i had 5-6 of spades. and that id show the bluff regardless. so i showed the 5. he finally calls. i pray he dont river the flush, but the 10 of clubs came. i show he mucks, never did find out what he had. i told him the 9 was upside down, and id mistook it for the 6. he left after this hand to play 5-10 NL, which was recently starting.

then Yoshis friend older guy from the atlantis mixed game came to pick me up for the PLO/plo8 mix. i then played it for 2 hours or so, then he drove me to the silver legacy and dropped me off. i didnt claim my money from the cage, but i did get my suitcases, then went to take a room elsewhere for fri-sat nights. i didnt play no BJ, the shoe was $25 instead of $5, some guy was playing it. the casino was so busy there were other shoes open, but too many people and i was tired. when u get to be my age, u dont feel like doing anything but sleeping immediately once tired. the same tonight, once i lost $300 in one orbit with only $140 left on the table out of over $400 of the $820  i was in for total, i only wanted to get to my room immediately, relax online, then sleep. i think i played poorly the last 20 minutes. i dont remember the hands, but i think i took one beat and then played one bad.

i just wish i could decide which game to play, and how to mentally handle it (swings). it doesnt make sense to play for $7 per hour, and not $87. one will make me very rich, over $150,000 per year. one wont even provide rooms.


32 comments:

  1. I enjoyed the blog. I just discovered it and am looking forward to following it in the future. Do you have separate rolls for each game (poker/BJ)? Or just one gambling roll?

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    1. one, (trying to play less BJ though i get it in with an edge or id not play it). but the variance is too much and when stuck i bet too much on good counts. in fact the $30k roll is everything i have in the world to my name so i cant lose it or id be on the street, no job, or home or way to get back into action. no access to credit. its got to never bust. so far it hasnt, not in 15 yrs but its gotten below $2000 once or twice.

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  2. it bothers me i cannot stay awake all night and just stay up til the planes trains, busses etc start running early in the morning. like say from 9pm keep playing when tired til morning. if i cant do this when im 48, what about when im 70? but then again, when i did this in my 20s when for much of the time i couldnt buy rooms due to having less than $1000 to my name and being scared to part with any of it, i wonder if i played poorly due to not having sleep?

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    1. This is why people have time and time again encouraged you to do some of the right things for yourself: take care of your health issues, find a stable home, save some money. Unfortunately, all you want to do in life is gamble. You are one health crisis away from being broke, disabled or dead. Better enjoy life while you can.

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  3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNyaGTCZW6c&list=PL203C4E789ECF00DF&index=22 link to some good songs

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  4. $65 preflop with 5s 9s? Sad...

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    1. this shows lester to be a solid abc player, with no initiative to open up his game

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    2. Lol.... Js 9s is a hand to go to war with. 5s 9s is a luckbox move.

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    3. Or, one might say that your pre-flop decisions with 95 demonstrate that you have zero discipline, play "Bingo," are a degenerate gambler, and are lucky to have any money at all.

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    4. You call what you did "opening up your game?" It's just your pure need to gambool it up. Amazing you're not living in a box again with that kind of play. I wonder how many losing plays like this you have made over the past weeks and months. The journey to less than $10,000 continues. Carry on.

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    5. These Reno 3-5 games are unlike anything anyone on here has ever seen. It is a 9-5 suited blaster fest. Live straddles of 20+ common. Plays more like a 10-20 blind NL. Pots are huge, highly contested, and destroys the belief systems of ABC people who think they are playing for a "living". They get chewed up and spit out. Bring your bankroll, play 40 hours in a week and find it out yourself. You..will...get...served. And maybe have to go find a profession that fits your pistol.

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    6. Tony, calling a preflop raise to $65 with 95s is called chasing you loss desperately and getting shot lucky. Showing your card "accidently" and talking it up is called amateur hour. Getting paid despite your actions is called a miracle!

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    7. Question for the Unknown Dealer. If those games are filled with maniacs playing 95, then wouldn't ABC poker get paid off huge more often than not. Sure, you may face variance because every once in a while, the 95 will beat your KK, but if you have better hand selection and you are playing ABC poker, then more often than not, you will get paid. Perhaps you have an issue with nits, rather than ABC players. Nits might get chewed up and spit out because they cannot handle variance.

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    8. @ Jordan:
      The "nits" at the table playing snug and "proper" hands are quickly identified, given no action, pushed out early, or bullied to death. Same goes for the ABC's. In these games, if you don't show the ability to drink shots, and show down with a 9-7 for a grand, you get no action. These are high stakes gamblers, in a 3-5 game mostly from Tahoe, and have more money already than any Johnny-Come-Lately ABC guy will EVER win in a full lifetime of..uh hmm...playing poker for a living... It's just that simple. I'm sorry if it degrades your belief system around that. Tourists and rounders only feed the machine. It is a Blitzkrieg by a Juggernaut. And your precious little stack is the appetizer...

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    9. That explains why Tony would want to play -- just continuing to feed his gambling addiction. The game sounds like the poker version of his martingaling. I can just see him getting juiced playing it ... and also see the sockroll drop below $10K, accompanied by anger, whining, self-loathing, talk of suicide ...

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    10. TUD's description of the 3-5 game is interesting. I would buy-in for the max and try that game out for a couple of hours.

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    11. @ Lester:
      You have a big problem then like I said. THERE IS NO MAX BUY IN!!...you read that right. Good Luck Sir...

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    12. Thanks for adding the information about the no max buy-in TUD. Anything else you want to add about that game that we should all know about? Like do you have to place your whole cards on your forehead readable to the other players at the table? Does any of the required drinking at the table require the use of a funnel? Are there one or more farm animals under the table?

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    13. With a game like that, just buy in short and play tight aggressive. It will be like printing money. Calling 95s to a $65 3bet preflop is a losing play, no question about it.

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  5. You think your going to make it to 70? I have a better shot for one reason. I take a thing called money and invest it in a thing called my health.

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  6. Making it to 70? ((No shot Sir)) What are you going to do about it? Conquer and squander. It's all you have until you change your variables. Plus you have a disability which lowers your life expectancy due to stress on your mind and body which is unavoidable even with meds. Taking better care of your physical health would help your blog last longer. Your selfish, stop being a dick.

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    1. I don't think there is any clear evidence that people with Aspergers have a shorter life expectancy. The way Tony lives his life though, no doubt lessens the chance he make it to 70.

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    2. It is an interesting question, and the results seem to be a bit mixed. This study found Spectrum folks have a shorter life expectancy by 16 years...

      "The report included a study by Sweden’s Karolina Institute showing that, on average, autistic adults die 16 years younger than members of the general population. Those who also had a learning disability died more than 30 years prematurely, at an average age of just 39."

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/wellbeing/health-advice/why-people-with-autism-face-a-lower-life-expectancy/

      *note - this study talks about folks on the spectrum, as well as autism specifically.

      s.i.

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    3. Have to be careful when looking at studies that include the whole spectrum, as the spectrum is quite wide. The challenge facing an individual at the low functioning end of the autism spectrum is very different that an individual in the high end, where Tony sits.

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    4. Agreed, PD.

      I thought it wsa interesting that those with a learning disability were dramatically more impacted, having about a 30 year shorter run! Has Tony ever disclosed any learning disabilities? I don't recall any...

      s.i.

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    5. Mark Zuckerberg is on the high end of the spectrum. Tony can't be taught to brush his teeth.

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  7. So you're a snake that uses lies and deceit at the tables to try and take people's money. You're no Christian. You're a scumbag degenerate gambler who'd sell his own mother out for a $1. No woman wants to be with you because your soul is garbage and character is evil.

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    1. Whoa 😲 you are being harsh on Hero. No woman wants to be with him because he lacks relationship skills, stability and dental hygiene.

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    2. Well, there is THAT too. ;) It's frustrating knowing he'll never change....only whine and act like he's looking for solutions.

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    3. blurred - I don't think Tony did anything too beyond the pale there. Insisting he had 6/5 suited was perhaps a tad overboard, but only by a hair. And, Tony certainly talks potential clients OUT of pots far more frequently than he talks them INTO donating...

      s.i.

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  8. You can wish all you want for winning $46,000 to not be a fluke but yeah, no.

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  9. If some other player called your pre flop raise with 9-5 sooooted and you lost with your much better hand (Jacks, Tens, whatever)....you would of had a shit fit and thrown something, probably getting banned by the casino.

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