Sunday, September 17, 2017

the big drop and why $2-5 is better

well the 2nd trip to firekeepers wasnt quite as good as the first. and seeing we already had a room elsewhere, i didnt feel like asking the host on duty about one, though i think i shouldve lost plenty to get it. ill do this if i ever go back, but i really dont feel i should go there, because i bet way too much on a machine where i dont have any edge. (refers to the $3000 i lost on the Ultimate tx holdem video machine). i did win $158 in the $2-5 NL.

i originally planned to play BJ there since its much lower stakes than greektown, or toledo. but the tables were way too full, its hard to get seats where u can play 2 spots, or for $5. plus they make it tough to win seeing if u enter mid shoe, u cannot bet 2 spots (just 1) and u must not bet over $100. so to avoid having to be around other people, i played the $3 ultimate tx holdem instead where i could martingale as much as i wanted.

also planned to sit in the $1-2 PLO as did Ray, but neither of us got around to doing so. but its only $100 there to min buy.

so im back to around $22,100 from $24,400 and the only reason ive still got this much is i recovered around $200 per nite every night since. all from playing $2-5 NL, which is pretty much all i played ever since. i dont like the $300 min buyin in the $2-5 in toledo. But its looser than u would expect $2-5 to be simply because those of u in vegas dont realize how much looser the games are in other parts of the country, such as shreveport, reno, here, phoenix and atlantic city.

Ray feels like he should be playing it too, though he dont have the roll, because he takes it more seriously, sees the potential to win big in it, and has done much better in it than $1-2 cause it keeps him from getting pissed and going to play keno. Ray tells me it will keep me off BJ and other games because now ill see i have the potential to win real money.

i just wonder how much more money id have now if id spent the last 5 yrs playing $2-5. maybe id have saved up like $100k and won like $75k per yr instead of 20-30k most of the time. $200 on average profit per day (and winning $2000 per day i see lots of the players doing it) would count up pretty quickly.

14 comments:

  1. Hard to say anything that would be new here, Tony. You make money playing poker, yet your need to gamble, gamble alone and not be stuck turns a day with a modest win into a huge loss. The story of the past several years.

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  2. If you only make $20-30k a year playing 1/2 and 1/3, it is unlikely you will make $75k at 2/5.

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    1. well the 5 months i was in shreveport i won $33,000 overall. so i think ill do good in their $1-3 when i get back there. others still report good action there. this is over $75k per year in $1-3, without needing $2-5

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    2. Well then, why don't you go back to Shreveport?

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    3. If Shreveport is where our Hero can also take care of getting a new valid ID then by all means the sooner the better!

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    4. Looks like Tony and Ray are on a road trip to Shreveport.

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  3. Rationalizing like every gambling addict, and your 2-5 projections are ridiculous, it don't work like that. ,

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  4. Just play 2-5. It's like squeezing blood from a stone trying to get a max buy in back at 1-2 and that shit WILL make you want to play VP and BJ

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  5. Tony absolutely would have been making way more than 20-30K per year if he'd played 2-5. Maybe more like 50-60K, not 75. Why are you talking like such a fish, Tony? You have mountains of data on your winrate in places all across the country and you're going to project based on your last 3 sessions?

    The thing that's going to be very difficult for you going forward is changing your default assumptions about players' ability to 2bet. A simple open raise does not in general indicate [TT-AA, AK] like it can at many passive 1-2 games. You need to be willing to fight in raised pots where some opponents will have 30% open ranges full ring. That means developing a sensible 3bet range, calling down light to 3-barrels, and giving someone credit for repping having opened with a hand like 79s. If you can adapt, you will for the first time in years see your bankroll consistently grow.

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    Replies
    1. i dont really have much $2-5 data due to playing it so little until this month

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    2. Data going back more than a decade is worth more than 3 sessions, even if it's at a different game. You don't need to start from scratch and believe "200 a night" is what you can expect now b/c that's what you made a few times. Obviously you can make a better guess than that. This should be obvious.

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  6. Wash, rinse, repeat.. My friend, You and Ray are degenerate gamblers. Period.

    If u lose in poker you run to the machines or BJ tables to 'get even for the day'. If Ray loses in poker he runs to the keno machines.

    Come on guys, clean it up and play some poker.

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  7. If your a winning player then 2-5 NL should make you more money then 1-2 NL or 1-3 NL.

    Where I play they will take a more rake for the 1-3 NL game then the 2-5 NL game. In a $50 dollar pot at 1-3 NL they take out $5 dollars for the rake but in the 2-5 NL game they only take out $3 dollars for rake in a $50 dollar pot.

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  8. I wonder what Tony's excuse will be if, and when he gets to Shreveport, things don't quite go as expected.

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