Tuesday, November 28, 2017

I knew it was due

i just got home after dropping $3000 on the video BJ machine. now lets try to look at the good side of things. nobody of course ever came by to sit, here in deadwood if u lose its not due to the fault of other players. its just bad luck.

i had $21,107 when i left my room, and $18,200 when i returned. but here is the proper way to look at things. when i left vegas i had $16,900 and arrived with $16,800 in deadwood. then i went and collected my free play in the silverado.

after doing so i had $18,200 on me that evening. i think i won some playing poker that day too, but not too much. so im not one dime worse off than i was after id picked that up.

and yet ive accomplished all of this. (truth is, id won close to $4000 on that VBJ before i lost). i paid my rent thru dec 20. i sent my family their christmas gifts. i ordered both a birth certificate and a consuelar report of birth. i've got to fix it so i can play online poker from my room though, its boring as hell when theres no poker, and i keep wanting to sleep between 5pm to 11pm when theres more likely to be games.

i dont think i should be upset i came here, ive done some things which need done, but i know i cannot drop another big chunk. got to bet less. once i got stuck well over $500 i started betting more than i shouldve before i shouldve. the last $1000 was lost playing without patience to wait. its really bugging me the lack of poker games in this town except 3-12 pm wed-saturday.

14 comments:

  1. Sigh. I can't count how many times I've tried to get you to purge your brain of the false and poisonous notion that you can be "due" for a big loss. THAT'S NOT HOW PROBABILITY WORKS.

    I wrote the last section of this article specifically with you in mind, and I suspect you've read it. Please read it again: https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/think-youre-due-to-flop-a-set-this-time-think-again-23316.htm

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  2. You can crunch the numbers any way you wish but you still dropped 3k that you really need badly. Want your teeth fixed - 3k would be a great start but nope, as usual, you pissed it away because all you know how to do is gamble - lazy, lazy, lazy.

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  3. Now that you've lost at least you'll be due for a win. That's how probability works on your planet, right?

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  4. Tony, no matter how you shuffle the figures around, the fact is you dumped $3000 into the VBJ machine. If only someone had said to you two days ago in your previous blog,

    "You said you nearly dumped over $1000 into the bj machine, so be careful. The warning signs are there."

    and if you had heeded the warning, this would not have happened. Oh well as usual, you never listen to advice. You did not need to go and gamble, but you are a gambling addict, and just like a drug addict you have to get your fix.

    I'm thinking of returning to Las Vegas in July next year for another five weeks. By then you should be comfortably settled into your cardboard box somewhere. If it is not in some hole in the middle of no where, I will stop by and say hello.

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    Replies
    1. its simply that variance is much stronger in VBJ than in live poker. im still up $2000 on it since coming to deadwood. half was spent on things i needed, mostly rent. and im still at $19,400 now instead of $18,200 i had after picking up the $1400. came here with $16,900. won a few hundred yesterday morning and this morning, plus over $200 in the $2-10 mixed game last night

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  5. Way back when in my youth and early BASIC programming days I had the bright idea to write some code that would produce a roulette result of red or black after having hit red or black six times in a row. I had the bright idea that after six of one color in a row the next play would produce the opposite color (or green) because obviously the opposite color was "due". The end result of 1000 test cases of what follows six in a row was something like red-47.X%/black-47.X%/green~3.X%. Wow.... afterwards I felt like an idiot for writing code to figure out something so obvious....

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    1. I don't think you should feel like an idiot for that. You learned something valuable that, for whatever reason, had never sunk in before. Nearly all learning is like that. I've learned a *lot* of things the hard way after the easy way didn't get itself into my brain. Nothing to be ashamed of. The only shame would be if you rejected the results, said "that can't be right" and went on believing the erroneous idea.

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    2. LOL.... makes sense after you put it that way. Thanks....

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  6. Deadwood will be an awful place to be dead broke at.

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  7. Tony you of all people should know a machine is never due.

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  8. Next time you think you are due for a big loss go to the VBJ machine and put in $10.00. Make $5.00 bets until you lose it all. Say to yourself "wow that was a big loss". Then you can go back to winning.

    Last time I was in Deadwood there was a $2.00 minimum live blackjack. You could go there with a few bucks and do some fun gambling on your vacation.

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    Replies
    1. why do $2 live when its $1 on the VBJ where u can have your privacy, get better penetration, and bet multiple spots if u wish, without needing to double the bet?

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  9. I shall think of you freezing in the cold of South Dakota as I fry here in an Australian summer.

    If lightning were a TRUE friend, he'd drive out to visit you. What's a thousand miles between friends?

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  10. I was just in Deadwood this past Spring. Much better time in my opinion. If I had to hang in that area in the winter I would go with West Yellowstone, MT and ride snowmobiles or the snowcoach while playing online poker. Or Gardiner, MT where the roads are open 365 into Yellowstone. Freeze but live in beauty and still able to play poker many hours.

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