Friday, January 26, 2018

its going down, down, down. its going down, down down (set to music)

when u depend on poker to survive and have NO OTHER INCOME, its absolutely critical u maintain a sizeable working bankroll. of at least 6-12 months worth of income or living expenses. u cannot be depending on doing it out of what u earn that week, day or month, because sometimes u dont make shit.

today i spent about $20 in walmarts on boulder hwy by the longhorn. and i hate spending money when i dont have to (and im dreading the new phone ill need because my battery is getting worse and worse about giving out if not continously plugged in) but at least the money is there. i was once up close to $4000 in poker this month and now its only $1200 and when u count non poker expenses and losses, im down significantly.

i didnt even go to the wynn tonight, because i no longer felt like playing $1-3. and theres no more money in the box anyway. i went straight to the nugget to play $1-2. was doing okay, was up to $479 once out of $247 in buyins and rebuys. then i got dealt AT in the BB and everyone folds to the button, a newer guy, who bets $7. he had just sat very recently. i called. would u reraise instead of call?

flop comes A95. i wanted to know if the flop scared him so i bet $2. he bets $25, i call. and i also bet this is case hes drawing nearly dead with like KJ suited, or i want him to think ive either got a monster or nothing, but the hand i did.

turn comes 5. i check he bets $45 i call. i think here i should fold, i felt i could be behind. river comes 10 and i think i sucked out, so i bet $115. hes got like $130 and he only calls but pushes it all forward, loudly yelling call first. (saved me a bet)  he has ace 5 instead of a big ace? wtf?

so i catch the bus to the longhorn and win $63 playing blackjack. $2 min with good rules but they sure dont put the cut card deep enough. i was up more once and down more once too, when i rebought $100. they simply thought i was martingaling but i did run into some good counts. one time when they probably expected me to continue raising bets, i cut back to $2, i couldnt go no further with the poor count. actually this happened more than once.

and on good counts i was going much more than just doubling the bets at times. and the one guy with a backpack kind of looked homeless but id swear he might be an employee, thought i seen him go behind the pit once. he kept looking over.

where did the $19,967 disappear to and how did i drop it to $14,801? $153 on the VP in the Tuscany on the way home the day before. $500 or so in the wynn on poker. plus losses the 2 previous nights. some in the nugget. and even some wins mixed in. $15 in $2-5 in the bellagio, and some on vp in the wynn. close to $3000, possibly more in the big split in planet H where its so easy to martingale and i wish id not been carrying so much cash. the min bet is 10c times 2, and the max is 40 credits on the $5 for $200.

i thought the bellagio might have stud still, not been thru there in years and if i was asked to leave i was so upset by then i didnt care. but no one said a word, must be new employees than 20 yrs ago. i was in the $20-40 mix when it opened by guys named morris, magic, etc. some weird types of badugi and razz and stud. u get 4 cards, then discard 2 and it plays normal, and triple draw too. i think triple draw or badugi i played poorly.

but i dont think i played poorly when i raised with 678 on 3rd in stud 8. nor when i raised my 5678 on 4th street. i didnt know one had KKKA hidden i thought he only had a big pair. i didnt know the other guy had 4 to a nice low either, he couldve been high or paired on 4th. then on 5th he hits the low and i start to check call. it actually got checked to me because i hit a 3rd suited card on 5th. so i got one free round. but i was told i did.

they said the stud im used to ($30-60 or $15-30?) only goes on weekends now. it might not go then.


9 comments:

  1. Your BB with the A-T calling the $7 was correct.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Tony:

    Please re-read your first paragraph and your 8th paragraph.

    Do you sense any dissonance between those two paragraphs?

    s.i.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Congratulations on learning from your past mistakes!

    ReplyDelete
  4. When the villain raises your 2 dollars to 25, it is reasonable to put him on a big ace. Which means when the second 5 hits you are most likely drawing to 3 outs,of course you should have foldedto the 45 dollar,bet.And make no mistake, even though it seems as though BJ or machine wins sometimes save a bad poker night, those are the things you really will never beat IMO, your sample size is just always too low to give you any real edge, even playing short term in what you are saying are positive counts. Tonight I won about 550 at 1-2 at Mohegan Sun, I'm back to seeing more weak players stepping into the games. One example, called a 7 dollar raise from the button with 3 9 suited hearts., 2 other callers. Flip comes king 9 5 all hearts. (!) 10 dollar raise, one call, I reraise to 40. Original raiser calls, 4 clubs on the turn, I'm all in for 90 or so. Short deliberation, this dude calls, of course has a king with the ace of H. What other gambling delivers these king of edges, I'm 37-7 favorite (yes I held). Short term you can run bad, but practice good table selection, stick to 1-2, 1-3, or O8 at the right tables and you would probably be alright forever with your BR. Again, it's the " fun" gambling that is causing most of your variance and most of your stress....

    ReplyDelete
  5. It is a miracle you've lasted as long as you have, but with expenses going up and aging not doing poker players any favors, you're headed for an eventual fall. Remember an old Roy Rogers quote "Return of capital is more important than return on capital." Is it possible for your to start putting money into Social Security? I would look into that. Perhaps find a bitcoin atm and put like 5k on a paper wallet, and whenever you get to 20k, do it again. Put the paper wallets in a safety deposit box.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Why shouldn't he just have a bank account? He could even claim like $12,000.00 a year in income from gambling, pay a little into SS but otherwise nt pay any taxes on that amount.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yes, I can't guarantee the bitcoin's value will hold, but it will be worth something. Cash in a bank account will be easily spent. He needs to contribute to SS and do some bitcoin paperwallets which if he keeps them in a bank safety deposit box probably won't get spent.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and of course the bitcoin mightve lost half its value. its still about half of when it was over $19,000. and id been just as quick to withdraw it back into cash to add to my roll when my roll started losing. see when u have little u will turn anything u own into cash, this is why when a friend of alysia chang visiting vegas from hongkong gave me hongkong money, i sold it for $11

      Delete
    2. I was thinking of a safe deposit box in Louisiana or somewhere far from your usual spots. Bitcoin was only 19k for a brief moment. I started buying it consistently since September or October, I forget when, the most I've paid is 11k. Naturally I don't buy when the price gets ridiculous. Not rich mind you, but its a good way to get some savings that's a little more difficult to spend.

      Delete