Friday, February 8, 2013

why do i keep having all these strange dreams? Seattle Irish?

went to sleep about 12pm, and finally woke up for good about 8am, after waking up numerous times due to various dreams, and phone calls. Dreamed about riding in a car that could only go backwards, then the driver getting out in the country, and me ending up having to carry a wolf and wait for its owner to return outside his house. Then dreamed about me riding a train too far to spend more time with a female employee who liked me. was going to ride to the end of the line at the casino in kansas city then back to my stop. We stopped by a big walmart store in a mall that was either inside the station or the train itself. I was walking thru it noticing all the stuff and no one around and how easy it would be to steal. it looked nothing like a walmart store, just like a bunch of small tiny mall shops without any employees. and it was in train cars. Then a guy was talking about his ex wife, and about how she shopped at a store called "choices" and i was thinking, ive heard of that store. he was complaining how she had stole all his money. at least it wasnt the normal dream about my mothers house, and being in large houses with someone after me.

Very nice of grump to let me know last night he had $62 in comps at hooters he wanted to use up, and pick me up at samstown and drive me to hooters, we ate in the restroom and i ordered a water and milk and a hamburger. he took a beef brisket. he paid with comps and left the waiter an enormous tip of $5. and then we went to the gift shop and i spent the remaining $39 of the comps on food and hygiene supplies.


we played no poker, and i won $47 earlier in the omaha game at samstown, but im doing really horrible at poker. down to $1400, and lost 6 $50 NL buyins in a row this week. mostly when out with lightning or donkeytax at places like stratosphere and hooters.

but not one dime was lost on video poker in the past 5 days, the whole time while lightning was in town, and not since he left either. the big $400 drop between VP and VBJ was before he came, the one that took me from $2000 to $1600 i never recovered from.

bad news about moms package, she accidently mailed it to the wrong address, my old box at the flamingo and thats cause she is old and forgets, which surprised me because she mailed the check to the right address, but she forgot to change it in her address book. she was very upset with herself, and after paying the postage twice, she just didnt want to do it again, and i think i need to move out immediately next week anyway. it contained the glasses, some food items, and 2 new shirts, etc. she didnt realize the mistake until today when it came back to her. if she wasnt so old she wouldnt have made the mistake and her mother had alzheimers. she is 70.

looking forward to my birthday sunday, am playing the 1pm freeroll samstown and later in the day will see donkeytax to go to texas i hope he shows up. hopefully i get something out of the freeroll, its usually always chopped. sure was glad i finally had the chance to see grump before he left town for good. and i guess ill be over at samstown today once this is posted. im worrying about it posting it keeps giving me an err message when trying to save. it better not eat the post, and to try and stop it ill try to copy and paste it elsewhere in yahoo notepad.

and for todays blog post hand history. this is in the omaha game. i had aa38 double suited preflop in the SB. i raised about 7 of us, and they all called. (i think playing a good omaha game like that daily might be a good idea). the flop comes up 256 rainbow, and i bet and get 4 callers. turn comes 6, and i bet and get 2 callers. river comes J. i bet, get 2 callers, and i won the low without having to split, a boat won the high.

87 comments:

  1. Tony,

    You slept 20hrs? That is very unusual. Could be a sign of a health issue.

    You ate in the restroom? And it had waiters? Very odd. And $5 is not "enormous" in any way.

    You didn't respond to my offer to stake you in 2 Omaha 8/B tourney on Monday the 25th. Reconsider?

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  2. of course ill do it, but all the stake offers have been fake recently, im afraid ill be going somewhere for nothing, but urs seems a little more legit since u are a longer term poster. notice all the fake offers lately, from the chaperone, the one at the strat, the fake jay cooley, etc.

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  3. What places have the best tournies near sam's town? I'm trying to pick one for this weekend for tony to play in.

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  4. what places near sam's town has the best tournies? I'm trying to pick one for tony to play in this weekend

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  5. Good news is I should soon be playing Poker again!

    Today made payments totaling a bit over $2,000 to get rid of all of my Non-Mortgage Debt.

    So, I'm Debt Free and Fucking Excited! (I made a small blog post in celebration).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and now what u should do, since u have good credit now, is borrow $10k so u have a decent starting bankroll for the NL games. im not winning in NL solely because my roll is too low, (buying in so short forces huge variance)

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    2. LOL. Tony, I don't think you understand debt and credit.

      If serge got rid of his debt, why would he want to take out a loan? Loans are bad. Borrowing money is typically bad because of interest.


      Congrats, serge. I'm actually going into debt now, just bought a townhouse. But I'm only financing $70,000 on a 15-year FRM. Other than that, the plan is to never carry any other kind of debt. I always pay off credit cards in full. Haven't had a balance on those for 10 years. And now, anytime I want a car, I'm just going to buy a fuel efficient used car and pay cash only. No financing.

      My goal is to retire the day after my mortgage is paid off. It's going to be close with my current salary, spending and investing levels. Will need some run good in the financial markets. If I can add $5K/year to investing I should be able to hit my retirement target.

      I wish I would have had my shit together sooner. Retiring at 40-45 would have been preferable to the current mark of a month before my 56th birthday.

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    3. Borrowing $10 much less $10k as your bankroll is ridiculous. Who thinks like that??

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    4. Grrouch, you might as well go for $100k at 20% interest minimum. No sense enjoying your debt free status for too long, it's bound to get old.

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    5. Shit, we should all be shorting Caesars. Up 40% today! Price reached $14. Valued greater than MGM? Seriously? Both are losing money, but at least MGM has Macau and some hope in vegas. Caeasars has 4 casino's in a dieing AC market! I've been trying to use up some comp dollars so I don't lose them when the company goes busto . . . and the stock adds 40% percent on heavy volume? Earnings on February 28th, I believe. Seems like an easy short on Monday morning!

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    6. Grouchie,

      set up a home equity loan for $10k and then buy an entry into this years WSOP Main Event???

      Regards, Lester

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    7. Iron Mike - I'm debt free other than my Mortgage. But much like you I don't plan on ever racking up any debt again.

      Tony - Ummm... where to begin.
      1 - I've had good credit my entire life. Even when I was drowning in Debt my Credit has always been good. This is the big reason why I was able to rack up such ridiculous debt in the first place. I don't ever recall a time when my credit score was below 700.
      2 - I just suffered through 3 years of very little poker, very little social life, very little entertainment outside of my house/TV/Video Games to get rid of my debt so that I could live a better life.... Your suggestion is to borrow ten grand and put myself right back into a shitty situation?
      3 - Would it not be wiser to just put money aside every month and save that Ten Grand up and start playing then without the worry of having to pay it back? 100% stress free and financially stable?

      Prosk - I don't think I can borrow another $100k (the house hurts me there). But I could just take the max amount of Cash Advances I can from my credit cards and get 30-50k instead.... Would you advise this?

      :)

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    8. PPP...CZR is running up on the news that the Governor is loosing is stance on on-line poker...hence those 4 dieting casinos are the ticket for entry into NJ on line gaming....far from a done deal but CZR is going up on that potential I believe. NJ needs the tax revenue.

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    9. Congratulations Serge on being debt free and I admire the sacrifices you have made to get there. One of the greatest days in my life was in 2006 when I achieved the same. I have never gone back and never will. My money is mine--true freedom.

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    10. Lindy, yes. But on-line gaming is still far from a sure thing in Jersey and, if implemented, who knows what form it will ultimately take.

      A 40% run is a bit (actually, a lot) much IMO. I'll be buying some March puts Monday morning . . .

      As for what jersey (or, more specifically, AC) needs is for the Judge to toss MLB/NFL, et al. out on their asses in the pending litigation, and to get full on sports betting on the shore!

      Delete
  6. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    1. Id love to find a loan shark, none will do busineds since I have no collateral. On the shuttle now downtown from samsyown

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  7. It is pretty much impossible to win money at poker unless you have a $10K+ bankroll.

    I guess all you can do is pray you win a jackpot or the government accidentally pays you too much money or you find a bag of $10K in cash while visiting various Wal-marts.

    On the bright side, if you did somehow luckbox your way into a $10K bankroll it'd be all champagne and mashed potatoes, as you'd be guaranteed to make money playing poker and of course would never stick any money in a machine.

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  8. This HH per day really has turned into an epic fail.

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. "3 - Would it not be wiser to just put money aside every month and save that Ten Grand up and start playing then without the worry of having to pay it back? 100% stress free and financially stable?"
    ^do this. :)

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  11. I am Jay Cooley and want to stake you, do you not remember us playing at bunions together?

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  12. "we ate in the restroom and i ordered a water and milk and a hamburger"

    They serve food in the restroom?

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  13. am so relieved to make it out of samstown up $81 instead of down $147, brings me back to the $1500s. and heres a hand history post. i had aa preflop, limped UTG. a tight regular in middle position raised to $8 and i put him on a big pair. one guy calls, and i bet $14. they both call. flop comes KK5 rainbow, and there is a hi hand promo where aaakk is the nut full house, and would be guaranteed to win $150 at 10pm the worse would be to split it. (no this was NOT the hand i got the hi hand on). i had aaaqq then anyway. so since i didnt have it yet, and had 4 chances to hit a very hi hand with 2 cards to come, and since betting id either be way ahead with few outs to outdraw me or way behind, was the $6 bet i made a horrible mistake? luckily they both folded, and im going to assume he had something like JJ.

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  14. glad you made it out up. see you said you were out of luck but you still get luck. you should get ban lifted at excalibur, i was at 2-6 there and up $70 in about 30 min while waiting on a seat playing very basic abc and no particular luck +thres a 'all american suites' like half a mile down the road @$183/week...something to think about for you.

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    1. "you should get ban lifted at excalibur, i was at 2-6 there and up $70 in about 30 min while waiting on a seat playing very basic abc and no particular luck"
      ------------

      What are you inferring here and what is this supposed to even prove anyway - That anyone can, even Tony, get hit in the face by the deck?

      Obviously you had to have been lucky and/or on the right side of some cooler/bad beat to have won $70 in 30 mins playing 2-6 spread limit. Especially when you are claiming to have played "ABC" and "very basic" poker.

      Delete
  15. btw, and very briefly, I saw someone mention something about shorting CZR (Caesars). Do not do this. The play here would have been to go LONG on Thursday when word came that Christie had made a conditional veto (a VERY good thing for online poker, btw)on a bill in New Jersey that will allow poker to go online, as well as pretty much seal the purchase of the Atlantic Club (formerly the Hilton Ac) by PokerStars/FullTilt.

    It was so obvious that CZR would spike with the news, given their enormous presence in AC. Alas, while I did get in on Thursday for 2k shares, I sold wayyyy too soon and missed out on another 24% run up.

    Regardless, shorting now is something amateur traders would do. You don't short stocks simply because they've shot up, nor do you go long in something that has fallen drastically. It's a very typical move of people who are clueless, though I do not mean to call this person in here clueless - On the contrary, he appears to be intelligent and his intentions good.

    That said, it MIGHT be good for a small gain on Monday, assuming you can find the shares to borrow to short it. It's not worth it though. It's simply not a good short at the moment.

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    1. As I trade stocks and options, I closely watch the market. As it happens, I also closely follow many gaming stocks, one of the reasons being I worked as a consultant in the past to many Las Vegas Casinos (including at one time Caesars Palace - pre Harrahs.

      In December, 2+2 had a thread concerning Caesars financial situation whose main thrust was an in-depth article recommendation to short CZR Stock because there was little chance it was worth anything.
      http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/interesting-article-caesars-financial-situation-1283796/

      **The original well-written article is now unreadable unless you are a PRO subscriber to SeekingAlpha

      The same author has updated his opinion on CZR given the recent incidents (1) CZRs announced restructuring in an 8-K filing (2) NJ Online Gambling Bill; and has basically concluded that:

      "The only thing that has changed is the stock price; its recent move up simply makes a short sale more attractive."

      **One thing he does not note is Caesars stock in the past has been very hard to short

      Whatever your position, the author on this subject is an interesting read.

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    2. I've been trading the gaming sector since 2008, and this basically summarizes my view of Caesars. When it hit $5 a while back, I still didn't even consider taking a long position in it (and I've had long positions in just about every other gamer over the past 4 years - MGM, MPEL, WYNN, BYD, LVS, PNK, IGT, SHFL . . .). Czr's is the only stock I wouldn't consider touching. I don't see how it possibly sheds its debt. On-line gaming, if permitted, would likely be a positive for the company; but the extent of the impact would depend on so many variable which are unknown at this point. The 40% rise over the past two days seems to be based on pure speculation. But, apparently, I'm the clueless, amateur trader Steve G was referring to above, so what do I know . . .

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    3. Oh, I see I forgot to link the new article.

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/1166501-caesars-short-case-clearer-simpler-and-stronger

      Delete
  16. Tony you missed a great drunken game at Hooters, they just kept reloading, even the dealers made 200 each in tips...

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  17. If he had JJ he would have called $6 into a $42 pot.

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  18. seattle irish never posted his interpretation of the dream. going to be downtown playing at the golden nugget tonight, taking the samstown shuttle.

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    Replies
    1. actually won $76 in that game somehow before i went back to samstown, and of course no one ever staked me or even showed up, used the excuse he wanted to but said his girl didnt want him staking bums. all lies of course.

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    2. Everyone knows that only Snevman is a qualified dream interpretation expert.

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  19. Lol Steve g. I don't think I need lessons from you. Was just making the point that the 2-6 game at excalibur is soft. by no means saying that it can be beat at that rate... back when I played it often I averaged 17$/hr over 500 hour sample size.

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  20. Plus why the hell are pumping stocks on somones poker blog, further more one of a guy who has absolutely no knowledge or interest in stocks...!?

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  21. And no, the 70$ was entirely from being paid on every street with mediocre winning hands, my point being it was due to the soft conditions

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  22. new roll $1300. lost $309 in the $2-6 spread limit game at samstown, dont see how thats possible. dont ever remember losing that, going to sleep for the freeroll in the morning at 1pm. not a good way to start my birthday. not even sure if donkeytax thinks im still a good player after hearing this. i know i dont think i am.

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  23. and now for the good news. after i lost that, instead of playing a machine i walked straight home. no money lost in machines in 6 days, not that its helping any.

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  24. too many regs at sams town and they dont even drink/gamble much, game was way too tight to squeeze much out of imo, plus the regs will have you figured out pretty quickly. did you tilt? hard to drop that much at the 2-6, not that it cant happen, just would maybe indicate you wernt playing your best.

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    1. figured out how to set the alarm for 12.30 to walk to samstown in time for the 1pm freeroll. i dont think i was playing my best, was stuck way too much, and was trying to hit the aces full high hand for $250, it kept going up every hour and was INSTANTLY being paid, no waiting, for ANY aces full. so i kept seeing flops with hands like A6 offsuit and the same jackass kept raising with nothing all the time. too much variance. but if i was worried at $1600 look how much im worried at $1300. without a significant loan, my play will continue to deteriorate til im at zero.

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    2. Set your alarm for earlier so you can shower and brush your teeth.

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    3. As recently as October 30, 2011 your bankroll was $10,600 (http://sevencard2003.blogspot.com/2011/10/finally-good-day-for-change.html), which is pretty close to the $10K loan you want.

      What would you say to someone that has $10K to loan to convince them to give it to you?

      How would you convince them that it's a +EV investment for them?

      What have you learned in the last year or so (when your bankroll went from $10K to $1,300) that means you'll make money this time around if you had a bankroll of $10K?

      (Are you sure it's really a "loan" that you're asking for, TBC? Loans have to be repaid, with interest. People who make riskier loans expect a lot in interest, probably something similar to the Herbalife vig you charged your mom of around 30% or so. For the "significant loan" you want to work, you have to profit enough at the poker tables to not just pay the interest on the loan but cover your own expenses as well. You're confident you're up to that and that you're that good a poker player? Or is it more a handout that you're after, like the SSI money that doesn't have to be repaid?)

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    4. Yes Tony, what is different now than during your journey from $15,000 down to $1,300. What's changed? What are you doing now to ensure that you don't keep losing money month over month?

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    5. im still trying to figure out how to take full advantage of the triple down BJ promo, i cannot figure out what hands u triple down with that u do not double down with. i wouldnt be paying for $950 a month apts, wouldnt wait so long to get a vegas apt, wouldnt ride $800 cabs, would play more $2-5, and not waste big money in them PH and wynn BJ machines i used to, nor the shufflemaster ones i used to. would be doing a lot different. would also find better casinos with tons of tables to choose from and live nearby on the same busline.

      Delete
    6. So you'd tell the loan officer that you're still going to play good machines but just not the bad ones?

      What about VP? Is $10K a big enough bankroll to play VP profitably?

      I'm surprised you didn't mention all the studying and work you'd put into your poker game over the last year; that's the sort of stuff the loan officer would really like to hear.

      It sounds like your plan is to basically just do what you've always done (including playing machines), cut out $900 cab rides, and bank big profits due to the size of your roll.

      I cant't see anything wrong with that logic. I'm sure they'll instantly ship you the loan. Can't wait to hear how good the $2/5 games are.

      Delete
  25. that doesnt make any sense, you can play the same with 1300 as you can with 1600 in a 2-6 spread game. if you even average 1.5bb/hr @8-10 hours/day that covers your expenses easily. dont let promos alter your game much, if you hit them you hit them. you have to stop trying to play catchup to losses and just play consistently.

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    1. no u cant. the stress will effect u. neither $1300 or $1600 is an adequate roll, u need 300 big bets. thats $1800. who averages more than 1 bb an hour in a heavily raked game? id be more likely to average $5 an hour, what i need is to live with someone i can trust. and cut off all expenses, and borrow a big loan. u are right i shouldnt let promos alter my game, thats been hurting me big.

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    2. You don't think the interest on a big loan is going to affect you?

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    3. you have to play a softer game then, 2bb is very doable in most vegas 2-6/4-8 limit games. why would play be any different with 1300 than 1800 in a limit structure game, are you saying that if you had 1800 then got down to 1300 you would radically change again and need 1800 again? if so i dont see that could ever work. get unbanned at excal or play the texas game

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    4. when u sit with a roll of $1800, in a $2-6 spread limit game, most players who are smart and have wrote books and magazine articles will tell u to quit playing once ur roll goes below $1800, and play smaller limits til it passes $1800 again. so once it hits $1799, then no u have to stop and move to a lower game. it sounds weird but the people who give that bankroll management advice are smarter than u or me, so instead of trying to understand why, we should listen to them.

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    5. Nobody is smarter than you Tony.

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    6. Don't players who are smart and have wrote books and magazine articles recommend that you avoid playing even money blackjack for $100/hand?

      Maybe you can explain to us why you're insisting you should listen to the experts when it comes to the proper bankroll for $2-6 spread limit but ignore them when it comes to Martingaling -EV games?

      Delete
    7. Tony its a matter of risk of ruin. Those writers usually often say that your poker roll should be exclusive from you life expenses. You can't pick and choose certain advice, my point is 2-6 spread is the lowest you can feasibly play without being homeless, so you should be slamming hours playing your a-game, or if you feel unable to do so you should consider a min wage job or labor sourcing company work until you can. By the way I read today that if your depressed you are likely to dream 4 times more. As many have told you, you need to clear your mind somehow and de-stress.

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  26. Nice to see u didn't hit up a machine. Might be able to play some poker Tues. ill know more soon.

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  27. BYW Hapoy Birhday. Do something fun today.

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    Replies
    1. how? can u pay for it? i sure cant

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    2. Wow, I am almost afraid to wish you a happy birthday after that retort.

      Well, happy birthday anyways.

      Today is Chinese New Year, may be you can find some free entertainment like lion dance in China town, if there is such a thing in Vegas.

      Delete
  28. Tony chasing promos is as bad as playing VBJ or VP machines. The casinos make most there money from promos and comps. Promos and comps are probably the biggest sucker bet a casino has. If you want to believe it fine if not still fine.

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    Replies
    1. zin, do u remember all the people who always used to tell me, i should be taking full advantage of all promos (herbie etc?)

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    2. Tony, taking advantage of promos are NOT the same as chasing promos (meaning playing hands you shouldn't be playing, like playing A6 to hit a boat).

      As a professional poker player, you should be playing your hands to maximize your EV, and if other people are playing certains hands to chase promos, you should be making adjustments to take advantage of them. You are not supposed to be the one playing badly to chase the promos.

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    3. Tony come on man you know what i mean, chasing losses, chasing promos is a losing strategy. Playing your game and accumulating comps is totally different.

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    4. People have also told you to stop playing -EV games, to brush your teeth daily, and to do non-gambling things such as reading a book or taking a walk every day.

      Why is it you only listen to what other people tell you do when it involves gambling?

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    5. Zin, most things you say regarding gambling are absurd. It's not hard to exploit promotions and comps. Just because you and Tony can't doesn't mean other can't.

      I played 22 straight hours of BJ once where I could triple down. The only suckers there were the ones not playing.

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    6. Sbr, honestly do you think a casino is going to give you or someone else something for free no way.

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    7. Explain to me the casinos edge when they let me triple down for 22 hours.

      Delete
  29. No ones loaning you anything without any income or assets and zero self control so have fun plummeting towards zero.

    Changes are up to you.

    I would start with pawning your computer and cancelling your monthly Internet.

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  30. i woke up before noon, with them weird dreams again about me trying to kill others, and them trying to kill me by squashing each other with vehicles to protect myself. really worried about how ill survive, must be causing the dreams the bitterness i feel about losing, the desperation and terror

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    Replies
    1. Never mind the bad stuff for today. Have a Happy Birthday!

      Delete
  31. Happy birthday, Tony. Hope it's a good year for you!

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  32. Good luck in the freeroll and Happy Birthday.

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  33. Happy birthday.

    Ps. Don't change the way you play due to freerolls. That's where you've lost all your money lately

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  34. got out of samstown with $124 of my $135 freeroll chop intact after playing omaha a few hours. home eating, but certainly aint done playing for the day. is there anywhere in cali theres a good $2-4 omaha8 game all the time with extremely loose action? all i ever seen at places like commerce and bay101 with that loose omaha8 action were $4-8 games instead. if so it might be worth being homeless there to protect the roll and grind back up in that game.

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  35. I've never seen a split pot 2-4 game in California or anywhere else. People already call everything to the river in 4-8 or even 8-16 Omaha. If your afraid of waiting for the bus at Boulder and Flamingo how are you going to handle being homeless in LA. The Commerce and Bike are both in horrible areas.

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    1. actually the commerce is in a pretty good area. its hawaaiian gardens thats in a really bad area. same crowd of guys always hanging out at the liquor store on the corner and panhandling on the freeway. its NOT boulder and flamingo im afraid of waiting for the bus, its boulder and sunset, and near TX, and across the street on the wrong side of boulder hwy by boulder station. (any bus stop without a lot of traffic). i only know of 1 4-8 game at commerce, thats not enough tables and i worry the 4-8 will be too tight and need too large a roll, at least $2400

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    2. LOL at any game at Commerce Casino being tight in its 30 year history. And yes, while I love Commerce, it is in a particularly bad area. Not anywhere near the worst in LA, and I think the Bike is in a little worse, but still not good by any means

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    3. LOL at any game at Commerce Casino being tight in its 30 year history. And yes, while I love Commerce, it is in a particularly bad area. Not anywhere near the worst in LA, and I think the Bike is in a little worse, but still not good by any means

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  36. That $5 tip is only "enormous" by your standards, where you think 10% is being generous. My normal would have been $4, but I only had two $1 bills, so I just left a $5. Besides, I liked the way our waiter handled things, so tip rounds up instead of down. The way I see it, we got dinner for two for $5, which is the bargain of the day.

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    1. I almost always tip 20% on the bill, including comped checks, and I am sure many people do the same. If I am particularly broke, then I stoop down to 15%.

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    2. If I can not afford the tip, I do not avail myself of the services provided. Which means, I eat somewhere else, or do not order a drink from a waitress, etc

      Delete
  37. Tony, I'm really sorry I couldn't do it this weekend. You might not believe me, but here's what happened:

    I went to golden nugget, emailed you to let you know I was just about there, then headed to the ATM to get money for the buy in. For some reason my card wouldn't work, so I had to head back to my room to get more money. I asked my girlfriend to use her ATM card to get some money, and she asked me what for so I told her (she didn't know about the stake agreement before this). Then she told me she didn't want me giving money away to bums and also that I should be spending the time with her if I planned on getting laid that night.

    Sorry man, not my fault. If I insisted on coming back over to the nugget the headache I'd get for it later just isn't worth the trouble.

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  38. Happiest of Birthdays to you, Tony. I hope your upcoming year is your best one yet.

    s.i.

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  39. Happy birthday Tony.

    Hopefully one day you find peace and balance and self control in your life

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